美元/匈牙利福林 (USDHUF) 加自选

2025年10月，美国NAHB/Wells Fargo住房市场指数升至37，为六个月来最高，而前两个月各为32，高于预测的33。目前的销售状况上升了4个百分点，达到38。未来六个月的销售预期跃升9个百分点至54，潜在买家流量指标上涨4个百分点至25。调查还显示，38%的建筑商报告称10月份降价，这表明住房市场面临持续挑战。与此同时，10月份的平均降价幅度从几个月前的平均5%上升到6%。建筑商上一次降价6%是在一年前的2024年10月。10月份，销售激励措施的使用率为65%，与9月份持平。

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index in the US rose to 37 in October 2025, the highest in six months, compared to 32 in each of the previous two months, and above forecasts of 33. Current sales conditions increased four points to 38. Sales expectations in the next six months jumped nine points to 54 and the traffic of prospective buyers gauge posted a four-point gain to 25. In a sign of ongoing challenges for the housing market, the survey also revealed that 38% of builders reported cutting prices in October. Meanwhile, the average price reduction rose to 6% in October after averaging 5% for several months previously. The last time builders reduced prices by 6% was a year ago in October 2024. The use of sales incentives was 65% in October, unchanged from September.

追踪纽约州、新泽西州和康涅狄格州部分地区经济活动的纽约联邦储备银行一般商业活动指数在2025年10月下跌4.2点，至-23.6点。这是自2021年1月以来的最低水平，当时服务业仍在从疫情中复苏。商业景气指数降至-42.9，表明情况仍比正常情况更糟。就业人数小幅下降，工资增长保持温和。供应供应持续恶化，尽管销售价格上涨放缓，但投入价格仍保持高位。总体而言，企业对近期前景表示轻微悲观。

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general business activity index, which tracks economic activity in New York State and parts of New Jersey and Connecticut, fell 4.2 points to -23.6 in October 2025. This marks the weakest reading since January 2021, when the service sector was still recovering from the pandemic. The business climate index dropped to -42.9, indicating conditions remain worse than normal. Employment edged down, and wage growth stayed modest. Supply availability continued to deteriorate, while input prices remained elevated even as selling price increases slowed. Overall, firms expressed slight pessimism about the near-term outlook.

周四，美国10年期国债收益率小幅上涨至4.01%，为三个交易日以来的首次上涨，但仍接近4月份的低点。投资者在关注美中贸易紧张局势和持续的联邦政府停摆的同时等待新的催化剂，这继续推迟了关键经济数据的发布。费城联邦制造业指数意外跌至六个月低点。在货币政策方面，市场继续预计美联储在本月底降息25个基点的可能性为96%，对12月类似举措的押注上升至91%。美联储理事Christopher Waller表示，政策制定者可以继续以25个基点的幅度降息，以支持疲软的劳动力市场，而Stephen Miran重申了他对大幅降息的呼吁。本周早些时候，美联储主席鲍威尔警告称，就业风险日益增加，这再次表明美联储可能会继续降低借贷成本。

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury traded slightly higher at 4.01% on Thursday, its first increase in three sessions, though it remained near April lows. Investors awaited fresh catalysts while monitoring US–China trade tensions and the ongoing federal government shutdown, which continues to delay the release of key economic data. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index unexpectedly fell to a six-month low. On the monetary policy front, markets continued to price in a 96% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed at the end of the month, with bets on a similar move in December rising to 91%. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said policymakers could continue lowering rates in quarter-point increments to support a weakening labor market, while Stephen Miran reiterated his call for a larger reduction. Earlier in the week, Fed Chair Powell warned of mounting risks to employment, another indication that the central bank is likely to continue easing borrowing costs.

美联储的Miran：美联储官员必须平等对待所有政府政策，而不仅仅是强调关税。美联储的Miran：美联储官员必须平等对待所有政府政策，而不仅仅是强调关税

Fed's Miran:Fed officials must treat all governmentt policies equally, not only highlighting tariffs.Fed's Miran:Fed officials must treat all governmentt policies equally, not only highlighting tariffs