欧元/匈牙利福林 (EURHUF) 加自选

德国10年期国债收益率跌至2.55%以下，触及6月25日以来的最低水平，因为投资者在美中贸易紧张局势升级和美国银行业信贷压力的新迹象下寻求安全。周四，北京指责华盛顿对其稀土出口管制“引发恐慌”，并拒绝了撤销这些措施的呼吁。与此同时，在两家美国地区银行披露与不良和潜在欺诈贷款有关的损失后，全球银行股暴跌，加深了人们对全球信贷市场健康状况的担忧。作为回应，货币市场加大了对欧洲央行和美联储降息的押注。交易员现在估计，到2026年7月，欧洲央行降息25个基点的可能性为80%，预计到明年年底，关键利率将达到1.8%左右。与此同时，预计美联储将在今年的最后几次会议上至少降息25个基点。

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield fell below 2.55%, touching its lowest level since June 25, as investors sought safety amid escalating US-China trade tensions and fresh signs of credit stress in the US banking sector. On Thursday, Beijing accused Washington of “stoking panic” over its rare earth export controls and rejected calls to roll back the measures. Meanwhile, bank shares worldwide tumbled after two US regional banks revealed losses tied to bad and potentially fraudulent loans, deepening concerns over the health of global credit markets. In response, money markets increased bets on interest rate cuts by both the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. Traders now price in an 80% probability of a 25 basis point ECB rate cut by July 2026, with the key rate expected to reach around 1.8% by the end of next year. The Fed, meanwhile, is seen delivering at least two 25-basis-point cuts in the final meetings of the year.

CAC 40指数周五下跌1.0%，至8100点左右，从前一交易日达到的7个月高点8189点回落，银行股的大幅抛售给该指数带来了压力。法国兴业银行（-4.4%）、法国巴黎银行（-3.4%）和法国农业信贷银行（-2.4%）均下跌，此前两家美国地区银行披露了涉及损失和潜在欺诈的贷款敞口，这加剧了人们对更广泛信贷市场的担忧。令投资者更加谨慎的是，美中贸易紧张局势没有缓和的迹象。从更积极的方面来看，法国总理塞巴斯蒂安·莱科尔努在周四的两次不信任投票中幸存下来，在关键的2026年预算辩论之前，他暂时搁置了新成立的政府。在个人推动者中，EssilorLuxottica在报告了强劲的第三季度业绩后飙升10.0%，收入同比增长11.7%，达到68.6亿欧元，这得益于北美和欧洲的稳健增长以及其人工智能眼镜部门的持续势头。

The CAC 40 fell 1.0% on Friday to around 8,100 points, retreating from a seven-month high of 8,189 reached in the previous session, as a sharp selloff in bank shares weighed on the index. Société Générale (-4.4%), BNP Paribas (-3.4%), and Crédit Agricole (-2.4%) all declined amid mounting concerns in the broader credit market, after two US regional banks revealed loan exposures involving losses and potential fraud. Adding to investor caution, US–China trade tensions showed no signs of easing. On a more positive note, French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu survived two no-confidence votes on Thursday, granting his newly formed government a temporary reprieve ahead of the crucial 2026 budget debate. Among individual movers, EssilorLuxottica surged 10.0% after reporting a strong Q3 performance, with revenue up 11.7% year-on-year to €6.86 billion, driven by solid growth in North America and Europe and continued momentum from its AI-powered eyewear segment.

周五，富时MIB指数下跌逾2%，至约41400点，触及8月初以来的最低水平，反映出美国银行出现压力迹象引发的全球股市抛售，引发了人们对更广泛信贷风险的担忧。指数权重金融股受到的打击最为严重，联合信贷银行（-3.1%）、联合圣保罗银行（-2.5%）、Mediobanca银行（-2.6%）、Bper Banca银行（-3.3%）和Banca Mediolanum银行（-31%）均大幅下跌。国防股莱昂纳多也下跌了3%以上，此前美国总统唐纳德·特朗普和俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京在匈牙利就乌克兰的事态发展举行了高级别会议。该指数中的其他主要股票也下跌，包括法拉利（-2.5%）、意大利兴业银行（-2.1%）、意大利邮政（-2.50%）、普睿司曼（-2.6%）和意法半导体（-2.4%）。加剧市场疲软的是美中贸易紧张局势的加剧，此前中国最近指责美国对其稀土矿控制引发“恐慌”。

The FTSE MIB fell more than 2% to around 41,400 on Friday, hitting its lowest level since early August, mirroring a global equity sell-off driven by emerging signs of strain in US banks, raising concerns over broader credit risks. Index heavyweight financials were the hardest hit, with sharp losses from UniCredit (-3.1%), Intesa Sanpaolo (-2.5%), Mediobanca (-2.6%), Bper Banca (-3.3%), and Banca Mediolanum (-3.1%). Defence stock Leonardo also slid over 3%, ahead of a high-level meeting in Hungary between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on developments in Ukraine. Other key stocks in the index also declined, including Ferrari (-2.5%), Assicurazioni Generali (-2.1%), Poste Italiane (-2.5%), Prysmian (-2.6%), and STMicroelectronics (-2.4%). Adding to market weakness were intensifying US–China trade tensions, after China recently accused the US of stirring “panic” over its rare earth mineral controls.

欧元攀升至1.17美元，为10月6日以来的最高水平，巩固了法国政治紧张局势缓解和美元走软一周结束时的涨幅。周四，法国总理塞巴斯蒂安·莱科尔努在承诺暂停一项有争议的养老金改革后，连续两次以微弱优势通过不信任投票。此举有助于避免政府再次崩溃，并为总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙提供了短暂的喘息机会，以应对可能更激烈的国家预算之战。与此同时，由于美联储政策制定者Christopher Waller和Stephen Miran呼吁进一步降息以支持劳动力市场，美元连续第四个交易日走软。对美国地区银行的新担忧、持续的美中贸易紧张局势以及政府关门且看不到解决方案，进一步打压了美元。

The euro climbed to $1.17, its strongest level since October 6, consolidating gains at the end of a week marked by easing political tensions in France and a weaker US dollar. On Thursday, French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu narrowly survived two consecutive no-confidence votes after pledging to suspend a contentious pension reform. The move helped avert another government collapse and offered President Emmanuel Macron a brief reprieve ahead of a potentially tougher battle over the national budget. Meanwhile, the dollar softened for a fourth consecutive session as Fed policymakers Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran called for additional rate cuts to support the labor market. Fresh worries over US regional banks, ongoing US-China trade tensions and a government shutdown with no resolution in sight further weighed on the dollar.