欧元/匈牙利福林 (EURHUF) 加自选

意大利10年期国债收益率从周三触及的近一个月高点3.726%降至3.65%，原因是投资者消化了疲软的美国经济数据并重新评估了美联储的政策前景。4月份美国零售销售增长大幅放缓，而由于贸易利润率下降，生产者价格下降，这进一步表明特朗普总统的关税可能开始对经济造成压力。与此同时，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔警告称，长期利率可能会保持高位，由于供应侧冲击日益频繁，通胀可能会变得更加不稳定。在欧洲，货币市场目前将欧洲央行的存款利率定价为年底前1.79%，6月份降息的可能性为95%，因为政策制定者希望保护经济免受贸易紧张局势升级的影响。欧洲央行官员Villeroy de Galhau支持这一观点，他表示，到夏季可能会进一步放松政策，而Joachim Nagel则指出，通胀将“很有可能”趋同于欧洲央行2%的目标。

The yield on Italy’s 10-year BTP fell to 3.65%, down from a near one-month high of 3.726% touched on Wednesday, as investors digested soft US economic data and reassessed the Fed’s policy outlook. April’s US retail sales growth slowed sharply, while producer prices declined due to falling trade margins, adding to signs that President Trump’s tariffs may be starting to weigh on the economy. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that long-term interest rates could remain elevated, with inflation potentially becoming more volatile due to increasingly frequent supply-side shocks. In Europe, money markets are now pricing the ECB’s deposit rate at 1.79% by year-end, with a 95% probability of a rate cut in June as policymakers look to shield the economy from escalating trade tensions. Supporting this view, ECB official Villeroy de Galhau suggested further easing could come by summer, while Joachim Nagel noted a “good probability” that inflation will converge toward the ECB’s 2% target.