纽币/新加坡元 (NZDSGD) 加自选

新西兰基准标准普尔/NZX 50指数周五收于13112点，下跌0.3%，标志着连续第二个交易日下跌。当地股市追随华尔街的疲软，美国强劲的经济报告导致今年利率预期小幅调整。全球投资者现在正在等待今天晚些时候公布的美国个人消费支出价格指数，以获取美联储降息路径的更多线索。在国内新闻方面，澳新银行罗伊·摩根的调查显示，9月份新西兰消费者信心有所改善，这表明早些时候的宽松政策可能开始发挥作用。在企业方面，奥克兰国际机场（-2.2%）、Infratil（-3.6%）、Contact Energy（-2.1%）和Mercury NZ（-0.8%）等权重股出现了显著下跌。与此同时，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布自10月1日起对品牌药品进口征收100%关税后，医疗保健类股涨跌互现。本周，新西兰元50指数下跌0.9%，为两个月来最大单周跌幅。

New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index closed 0.3% lower at 13,112 on Friday, marking its second straight session of losses. The local bourse tracked weakness on Wall Street, where strong US economic reports led to a small recalibration of interest rate expectations this year. Investors globally now await the release of the US PCE price index later today for more clues on the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut path. In domestic news, ANZ-Roy Morgan survey showed consumer confidence in New Zealand improved in September, suggesting that earlier policy easing may be starting to feed through. On the corporate front, notable declines were seen in heavyweights such as Auckland Intl Airport (-2.2%), Infratil (-3.6%), Contact Energy (-2.1%), and Mercury NZ (-0.8%). Meanwhile, healthcare stocks ended mixed after US President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on branded drug imports, effective October 1. For the week, the NZX 50 fell 0.9%, its sharpest weekly decline in two months.

新加坡制造业产量在2025年8月同比下降7.8%，扭转了上个月向上修正的7.7%的增长，这是自2024年6月以来的首次下降。最新数据远高于市场普遍预期的2.5%的跌幅。电子产品产量在经历了之前的强劲增长（-4.8%对7月份的14.7%）后下降，受到半导体和计算机价格下跌的压力。此外，由于药品产量下降，生物医学制造业也大幅下滑（-37.3%对0.2%）。精密工程也表现疲软（-1.7%对9.7%），受机械行业下滑的影响。一般制造业萎缩13.9%，比7月份9.7%的跌幅更大，所有零部件均下跌。与此同时，由于石油产量下降，化工产量放缓（3.5%对4.2%）。与此同时，受航空航天业增长的推动，运输工程行业走强（18.9%对15.7%）。 经季节性调整的月度数据显示，产出暴跌9.7%，为17个月来最大跌幅，与6月份的8.8%增长相比有所波动。

Singapore’s manufacturing production dropped by 7.8% yoy in August 2025, reversing an upwardly revised 7.7% growth in the prior month and marking the first fall since June 2024. The latest figure was much steeper than market consensus of a 2.5% decrease. Electronic output fell after a strong rise previously (-4.8% vs 14.7% in July), pressured by declines in semiconductors and computers. Also, biomedical manufacturing slumped (-37.3% vs 0.2%), as pharmaceutical output deteriorated. Precision engineering was also weak (-1.7% vs 9.7%), weighed by a fall in machinery. General manufacturing shrank 13.9%, steeper than a 9.7% fall in July, with all components down. At the same time, chemical output slowed (3.5% vs 4.2%), owing to drops in petroleum. Meanwhile, transport engineering strengthened (18.9% vs 15.7%), lifted by growth in aerospace. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, output tumbled 9.7%, pointing the sharpest fall in 17 months and swinging from a 8.8% increase in June.

周五，新西兰元稳定在0.576美元，徘徊在4月11日以来的最低水平，受到美元走强和国内货币宽松预期上升的压力。美元走强，此前好于预期的美国经济数据和美联储几位官员的谨慎言论促使市场缩减了对今年进一步降息的押注。投资者现在正在等待今天晚些时候公布的个人消费支出价格指数，以获取有关美联储利率走势的更多线索。在国内，一系列疲软的经济数据导致交易员对新西兰储备银行的进一步宽松政策进行了定价。市场完全消化了10月份降息25个基点至2.75%的预期，有30%的可能性出现更大的0.5个基点的跌幅。与此同时，澳新银行罗伊摩根调查显示，9月份新西兰消费者信心上升，表明早些时候的降息开始产生效果。本周，新西兰元将下跌1%以上，标志着其连续第二周下跌。

The New Zealand dollar was steady at $0.576 on Friday, hovering at its lowest level since April 11, pressured by a firming US dollar and rising expectations of domestic monetary easing. The greenback strengthened after better-than-forecast US economic data and cautious remarks from several Federal Reserve officials prompted markets to scale back bets on further rate cuts this year. Investors are now awaiting the release of the PCE price index later today for more clues on the Fed's rate path. At home, a run of weak economic data has led traders to price in deeper easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Markets are fully priced for a quarter-point cut to 2.75% in October, with a 30% chance of a larger half-point move. Meanwhile, ANZ-Roy Morgan survey showed consumer confidence in New Zealand rose in September, suggesting that earlier rate cuts is beginning to feed through. For the week, the kiwi is set to post a loss of more than 1%, marking its second straight weekly decline.

澳新银行罗伊摩根消费者信心指数（CCI）在2025年9月升至94.6，高于8月份的10个月低点92.0。当前状况指数攀升6点至88.1，而未来状况基本保持不变，为99.0，而8月份为98.8。家庭对个人财务状况的看法明显改善，上升11个百分点至-13%，而净14%的受访者预计明年这个时候会更好，比上个月上升1个百分点。对整体经济的看法喜忧参半：五年经济前景上升3个百分点至+6%，但12个月前景下降3个百分点，至-23%。房价预期从3.0%降至2.5%，为2024年7月以来的最低水平。未来两年CPI通胀预期保持稳定在4.8%。最新的CCI还强调，报告称自己感觉比一年前更糟的家庭比例稳步下降，而新西兰储备银行已将其政策立场转向支持增长前景。

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rose to 94.6 in September 2025, up from August’s 10-month low of 92.0. The current conditions index climbed 6 points to 88.1, while future conditions were largely unchanged at 99.0, compared to 98.8 in August. Household perceptions of personal finances improved notably, rising 11 points to -13%, while a net 14% of respondents expect to be better off this time next year, up 1 point from the previous month. Sentiment toward the broader economy was mixed: the five-year economic outlook rose by 3 points to +6%, but the 12-month outlook declined by 3 points to -23%. House price expectations fell from 3.0% to 2.5%, the lowest level since July 2024. Two-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations remained steady at 4.8%. The latest CCI also highlighted a steady decline in the proportion of households reporting they feel worse off than a year ago, while the RBNZ has shifted its policy stance toward supporting the growth outlook.