纽币/新加坡元 (NZDSGD) 加自选

周五早盘交易中，新西兰股市上涨18点，涨幅0.2%，至12498点，连续第二天上涨。在地缘政治紧张局势缓解、降息猜测日益增多以及科技板块大幅反弹的情况下，NZX 50指数隔夜追随华尔街的乐观走势。美国和中国就稀土出口达成的框架协议进一步提振了市场情绪。新的国内数据也有所贡献，新西兰消费者情绪改善至六个月来的最高水平，这得益于所有组成部分的上涨。然而，交易员预计下周将公布中国PMI数据和新西兰企业士气数据。材料、能源和公用事业板块的上涨主要推动该指数上涨，Meridian energy上涨1.8%，Colonial Motor上涨1.2%，澳新银行集团上涨1.2%。然而，由于对中东地缘政治紧张局势的持续担忧，该指数在前一周上涨后，仍有望每周下跌0.5%。

Shares in New Zealand climbed 18 points, or 0.2%, to 12,498 in early deals on Friday, marking a 2nd straight day of gains. The NZX 50 tracked an upbeat session on Wall Street overnight amid easing geopolitical tensions, growing speculation of an interest rate cut, and a sharp rally in the tech sector. Sentiment was further boosted by a framework agreement between the US and China on rare earth exports. Fresh domestic data also contributed, as New Zealand’s consumer mood improved to the highest level in six months, supported by gains across all components. However, traders anticipated the release of Chinese PMI data and New Zealand business morale figures next week. Gains in materials, energy, and utilities mainly drove the index, with Meridian Energy climbing 1.8%, Colonial Motor rising 1.2%, and ANZ Group advancing 1.2%. However, the index is still on track for a 0.5% weekly decline, after gains in the prior week, amid ongoing concerns over geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

澳新银行罗伊摩根消费者信心指数6月上涨6点，至98.8，为12月以来的最高水平。所有组成部分指标都有所改善，尽管许多指标仍低于历史标准。表示现在是购买主要家居用品的好时机的家庭比例上升了3个百分点，达到-7，仍然表明零售情绪疲软。通胀预期跃升0.3个百分点至4.9%，为2023年4月以来的最高水平，可能是由于持续的食品价格通胀（同比4.4%）以及对能源和电力成本上涨的担忧。虽然家庭更高的通胀预期可能不会对整体通胀趋势或工资结果产生重大影响，但它们确实反映了持续的生活成本压力。未来状况指数上涨8点至104.8，当前状况指数上涨3点至89.8，表明对当前和未来经济状况的乐观情绪略有改善。

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index rose by 6 points to 98.8 in June, marking the highest reading since December. All component indicators improved, though many remain subdued by historical standards. The proportion of households saying it’s a good time to buy a major household item increased 3 points to -7, still pointing to soft retail sentiment. Inflation expectations jumped 0.3 percentage points to 4.9%—the highest level since April 2023—likely driven by persistent food price inflation (4.4% y/y), as well as concerns over rising energy and electricity costs. While higher inflation expectations from households may not significantly impact overall inflation trends or wage outcomes, they do reflect a continued sense of cost-of-living pressure. The future conditions index rose 8 points to 104.8, and the current conditions index gained 3 points to 89.8, suggesting slightly improved optimism about both present and future economic conditions.

新西兰基准标准普尔/NZX 50指数周四上涨0.15%，收于12480点，结束了连续六个交易日的下跌。随着以色列和伊朗之间的停火似乎正在持续，风险情绪有所改善，缓解了人们对中东更广泛冲突的担忧，从而支撑了反弹。与此同时，随着特朗普政府设定的7月9日谈判协议的最后期限临近，投资者现在正将注意力重新集中在贸易发展上，以避免与贸易伙伴征收互惠关税。在企业新闻中，陶朗加港宣布将其在北港50%的股份出售给Marsden Maritime Holdings，后者已经拥有另一半股份。在大盘股中，Infratil（+1.5%）、Mercury NZ（+1.75%）和Ebos Group（+2.55%）涨幅显著。

New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index rose by 0.15% to close at 12,480 on Thursday, snapping a six-session losing streak. The rebound was underpinned by improving risk sentiment, as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran appeared to be holding, easing concerns about a wider conflict in the Middle East. Meanwhile, investors are now returning their focus to trade developments as the clock ticks down to the July 9 deadline set by the Trump administration to negotiate deals that would avert the imposition of reciprocal tariffs with trading partners. In corporate news, Port of Tauranga announced the sale of its 50% stake in Northport to Marsden Maritime Holdings, which already owns the other half. Among large-cap stocks, notable gains were seen in Infratil (+1.5%), Mercury NZ (+1.75%), and Ebos Group (+2.55%).

2025年5月，新加坡制造业产量同比增长3.9%，较4月份下调后的5.6%有所缓解，但超过了市场预期的2.6%的增长。这是自2月以来制造业产出最疲软的年度增长，主要是由于电子产品生产急剧放缓（4月份为3.9%对14.6%），受到计算机外围设备和数据存储急剧下降的拖累。与此同时，精密工程（10.3%对1.6%）和运输工程（25.6%对22.4%）的产出增长加快。生物医学制造业反弹（6.1%对-1.8%），化学品也反弹（0.3%对-3.1%）。相比之下，一般制造业继续萎缩，但速度较慢（-8.9%对-15.1%）。经季节性调整的月度数据显示，5月份制造业产出下降0.4%，扭转了4月份向下修正的4.9%的增长。这一下降幅度小于市场预期的2.5%的下降幅度。

Singapore’s manufacturing production grew by 3.9% year-on-year in May 2025, easing from a downwardly revised 5.6% increase in April but surpassing market expectations of a 2.6% rise. It was the softest annual growth in manufacturing output since February, largely due to a sharp slowdown in electronics production (3.9% vs 14.6% in April), weighed down by steep declines in computer peripherals and data storage. Meanwhile, output growth accelerated in precision engineering (10.3% vs 1.6%) and transport engineering (25.6% vs 22.4%). Biomedical manufacturing rebounded (6.1% vs -1.8%), as did chemicals (0.3% vs -3.1%). In contrast, general manufacturing industries continued to contract, though at a slower pace (-8.9% vs -15.1%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, manufacturing output fell by 0.4% in May, reversing a downwardly revised 4.9% increase in April. The drop was smaller than market expectations of a 2.5% decline.