欧元/新加坡元 (EURSGD) 加自选

市场松了一口气，但法国的财政大火仍在燃烧。法国的金融市场正在经历过山车，因为该国正在努力应对几十年来最严重的政治危机之一，虽然情绪正在改善，但颠簸的旅程还没有结束。

Markets relieved, but France's fiscal fire still burns.France's financial markets are riding a roller-coaster as the country grapples with one of its worst political crises in decades, and while sentiment is improving, the bumpy ride is not over.

周三下午，法兰克福DAX 40指数在24250点附近波动，徘徊在10月1日以来的最低水平附近，因为投资者在对美国可能降息的乐观情绪与美中贸易紧张局势的重新爆发之间取得了平衡。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周二强调了美国劳动力市场的持续疲软，强化了本月晚些时候再次降息的预期。在个股中，花旗集团恢复“买入”评级后，巴斯夫上涨1.9%，默克公司上涨1.5%，此前有消息称，默克公司将通过收购JSR Life Sciences来加强其实验室部门。阿迪达斯上涨超过1%，此前LVMH的销售强于预期，表明奢侈品市场放缓可能正在缓解，英飞凌在第三季度业绩强劲和ASML前景强劲后上涨0.6%。在下跌方面，莱茵金属下跌超过2%，跌至指数底部，费森尤斯医疗和Zalando各下跌1.8%，德意志交易所下跌1.4%。

Frankfurt’s DAX 40 fluctuated around the 24,250 mark on Wednesday afternoon, hovering near its lowest level since October 1, as investors balanced optimism over potential US interest rate cuts against renewed US–China trade tensions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted ongoing weakness in the US labor market on Tuesday, reinforcing expectations of another rate cut later this month. Among individual stocks, BASF rose 1.9% after Citigroup reinstated coverage with a “Buy” rating, while Merck gained 1.5% following news it will strengthen its laboratory division through the acquisition of JSR Life Sciences. Adidas added over 1% after stronger-than-expected sales from LVMH suggested the luxury slowdown may be easing, and Infineon climbed 0.6% following robust Q3 results and a strong outlook from ASML. On the downside, Rheinmetall dropped more than 2% to the bottom of the index, while Fresenius Medical Care and Zalando each fell 1.8%, and Deutsche Börse slipped 1.4%.

意大利10年期英国国债收益率降至3.4%，为2024年12月以来的最低水平，这得益于意大利财政措施和美联储降息押注的增加。意大利政府计划向银行和保险公司征收35亿欧元的税，以帮助为2026-2028年的预算提供资金，预计这些措施将使预算赤字从2025年占GDP的3.3%降至2026年的2.8%。 与此同时，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔强调了美国劳动力市场的疲软，强化了本月再次降息的预期。投资者也在密切关注美中贸易争端和法国政治局势的发展。周二，在北京拒绝增加对美国大豆的购买后，特朗普总统威胁要对中国实施食用油禁运。此外，法国暂停养老金改革缓解了政治不确定性，社会党排除了不信任投票的可能性。

Yields on Italy’s 10-year BTPs fell to 3.4%, the lowest since December 2024, supported by Italian fiscal measures and rising bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts. The Italian government plans a €3.5 billion levy on banks and insurers to help fund its 2026–2028 budget, measures expected to trim the budget deficit from 3.3% of GDP in 2025 to 2.8% in 2026. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell highlighted weakness in the US labor market, reinforcing expectations for another rate cut this month. Investors were also keeping a close eye on developments in the US–China trade dispute and the political situation in France. On Tuesday, President Trump threatened a cooking oil embargo on China after Beijing declined to increase purchases of US soybeans. Also, France’s suspension of pension reform eased political uncertainty, with the Socialist Party ruling out a no-confidence vote.

2025年8月，欧元区工业生产环比下滑1.2%，扭转了7月份向上修正的0.5%的增长，勉强超过了市场预期的1.6%的下降。资本品产出是主要拖累因素，在7月份增长1.7%后下降2.2%，其次是耐用消费品（-1.6%对1.2%）、能源（-0.6%对-1.7%）和中间产品（-0.2%对0.5%）。非耐用消费品产出几乎停滞在0.1%，而7月份为1.8%。在欧元区最大的经济体中，德国（-5.2%对1.5%）、意大利（-2.4%对0.4%）、法国（-0.7%对-0.1%）和西班牙（-0.1%对-0.5%）的产出下降，而荷兰在上个月下降1.3%后增长了2.3%。按年度计算，欧元区工业生产增长从7月份的2.0%放缓至8月份的1.1%。

Eurozone industrial production slipped 1.2% month-over-month in August 2025, reversing an upwardly revised 0.5% gain in July and narrowly beating market expectations of a 1.6% drop. Capital goods output was the main drag, falling 2.2% after a 1.7% increase in July, followed by declines in durable consumer goods (-1.6% vs 1.2%), energy (-0.6% vs -1.7%), and intermediate goods (-0.2% vs 0.5%). Non-durable consumer goods output nearly stagnated at 0.1% compared with 1.8% in July. Among the Eurozone’s largest economies, output fell in Germany (-5.2% vs 1.5%), Italy (-2.4% vs 0.4%), France (-0.7% vs -0.1%), and Spain (-0.1% vs -0.5%), while the Netherlands posted growth of 2.3% after a 1.3% decline the previous month. On an annual basis, Eurozone industrial production growth slowed to 1.1% in August from 2.0% in July.