欧元/新加坡元 (EURSGD) 加自选

欧洲股市周二收盘小幅下跌，与过去四周相比有所回落，因为市场消化了收益、政治挫折，并继续评估经济不确定性对企业订单的影响。欧元区STOXX 50指数下跌0.4%，至5261点，泛欧STOXX 600指数下跌0.2%，至536点。德国保守党领袖弗里德里希·默茨在德国联邦议院第二轮投票中当选为总理，但股市未能扭转第一轮投票意外结束后出现的回落。法国非必需消费品行业的巨头领跌，欧莱雅和EssilorLuxottica各下跌2%以上，而爱马仕和路威酩轩集团各下跌近1%。此外，诺和诺德在本周财报公布前下跌近4%。另一方面，联合圣保罗银行和法拉利在公布乐观的公司业绩后均收高。

European stocks closed slightly lower on Tuesday, trimming the rally from the last four weeks as markets digested the earnings, political setbacks, and continued to assess how economic uncertainty is impacting corporate orders. The Eurozone's STOXX 50 eased 0.4% to 5,261 and the pan-European STOXX 600 lost 0.2% to 536. German conservative leader Friedrich Merz was elected chancellor on the second round of voting by the German Bundestag, but equities were not able to reverse the pullback suffered after the first vote unexpectedly ended short of his election. French giants in the consumer discretionary sector lead the losses, with L'Oreal and EssilorLuxottica each dropping more than 2%, while Hermes and LVMH fell close to 1% each. Also, Novo Nordisk sank close to 4% ahead of its earnings this week. On the other hand, Intesa Sanpaolo and Ferrari both closed firmly higher after posting optimistic corporate results.

德国10年期国债收益率回升至2.55%，达到4月15日以来的最高水平，此前弗里德里希·默茨在周二的第二轮议会投票中当选为总理。他最初未能获得多数席位——这是战后德国的第一次——突显了政治不稳定，因为他在保守的基民盟/基社盟集团和中左翼社会民主党之间组建了联盟。Merz上任时公众支持有限，面临着艰难的局面，包括经济停滞、乌克兰持续的战争和美国关税的上升。随着政治不确定性的缓解，投资者的注意力正重新转向即将到来的央行决策。在4月份强劲的就业报告发布后，美联储预计将保持利率稳定，而英格兰银行可能会因担心美国贸易行动对经济的影响而降息。与此同时，欧元区货币市场继续预计欧洲央行将在年底前降息60个基点。

The yield on Germany’s 10-year Bund climbed back toward 2.55%, reaching its highest level since April 15, after Friedrich Merz was elected chancellor in a second round of parliamentary voting on Tuesday. His initial failure to secure a majority—a first in post-war Germany—highlighted political instability as he forms a coalition between his conservative CDU/CSU bloc and the center-left Social Democrats. Merz takes office with limited public support and faces a difficult landscape, including economic stagnation, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and rising U.S. tariffs. With the political uncertainty easing, investor attention is shifting back to upcoming central bank decisions. The U.S. Fed is expected to hold rates steady following a strong April jobs report, while the Bank of England may cut rates amid concerns over the economic fallout from U.S. trade actions. Meanwhile, Eurozone money markets continue to price in 60 bps of rate cuts by the ECB before year-end.

周二下午，法兰克福DAX指数下跌近2%，收于23140点左右，交易员们关注着德国议会的第二轮投票。保守党基民盟主席、最有可能成为总理的弗里德里希·梅尔茨在第一轮投票中仅获得310票，未达到联邦议院多数席位所需的316票，第二轮投票正在进行中。与此同时，在美联储周三做出决定之前，市场关注的焦点仍然是正在进行的财报季。在企业方面，科技股、银行、零售商和汽车股是跌幅最大的股票之一。其他公司在业绩乐观后也出现了上涨。Hugo Boss的营收大幅增长近7%。费森尤斯医疗在公布强劲的第一季度业绩后上涨了4%以上，大陆集团在创下四年来的销售新高后上涨了2.4%。Zalando还公布了好于预期的第一季度销售额，并重申了全年的指导方针。

Frankfurt's DAX pared some losses of nearly 2% to trade around 23,140 on Tuesday afternoon, as traders eyed the second round of voting in the German Parliament. A second vote is underway after Friedrich Merz, head of the conservative CDU and the favourite to become chancellor, fell short of the 316 votes needed for a majority in the Bundestag, receiving only 310 in the first round. Meanwhile, the market focus remained on the ongoing earnings season, before the Fed's decision on Wednesday. On the corporate front, tech, banks retailers, auto stocks were among the top losers. Other companies saw gains following upbeat results. Hugo Boss surged nearly 7% on a revenue beat. Fresenius Medical Care rose over 4% after reporting strong Q1 results, and Continental gained 2.4% following a four-year sales high. Zalando also posted better-than-expected Q1 sales and reaffirmed its full-year guidance.

尽管德国政局动荡，欧元却异常平静——丰业银行。丰业银行首席外汇策略师Shaun Osborne指出，考虑到更广泛的不确定性以及德国总理Merz未能在德国议会获得多数票，欧元（EUR）保持平静，交易区间非常狭窄。

EUR remarkably quiet despite political turmoil in Germany – Scotiabank.The Euro (EUR) is quiet and trading within a remarkably tight range, given the broader context of uncertainty and German Chancellor Merz' failure to secure a majority for his confirmation vote in the German parliament, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.