土耳其里拉/丹麦克朗 (TRYDKK) 加自选

周五，Ibovespa指数下跌1.2%，收于137116点，为数周来最大单日跌幅。投资者度假归来，消化央行出人意料地将Selic加息至15%的消息，这进一步收紧了借贷成本，并给信贷敏感行业的前景蒙上了阴影。银行和消费金融股受到的打击最为严重：桑坦德银行下跌2.2%，Bradesco下跌1.7%，Itaúsa下跌1.1%，巴西银行下跌1.9%，此前Copom的鹰派语气暗示，如果通胀仍然居高不下，紧缩政策将“在很长一段时间内”持续下去。零售商和房地产股也受到影响，因为有预测称，加息将抑制家庭支出并抑制新建筑。与此同时，巴西国家石油公司的适度股息支付未能提振能源股，导致圣保罗交易所本周收盘下跌0.1%。

The Ibovespa lost 1.2% to close at 137,116 on Friday, its steepest one-day drop in weeks, as investors returned from holiday to digest the central bank’s surprise Selic hike to 15%, which further tightened borrowing costs and clouded the outlook for credit-sensitive sectors. Bank and consumer-finance names were hit hardest: Santander fell 2.2%, Bradesco slid 1.7%, Itaúsa dropped 1.1% and Banco do Brasil eased 1.9% after Copom’s hawkish tone signaled that tightening would persist “for a very long period” if inflation remains elevated. Retailers and real-estate stocks also suffered amid forecasts that higher rates will damp household spending and curb new construction. Meanwhile, Petrobras’s modest dividend payout failed to buoy energy shares, leaving the São Paulo exchange to finish the week down 0.1%.

标准普尔500指数周五下跌0.2%，纳斯达克指数下跌0.5%，道琼斯指数上涨35点，投资者权衡美联储降息的前景和中东地缘政治紧张局势的加剧。美联储理事沃勒表示，降息最早可能在7月到来，这与鲍威尔主席更为谨慎、依赖数据的立场形成了鲜明对比。英伟达（Nvidia）和台积电（TSMC）等半导体股下跌超过1%，此前有报道称美国可能撤销出口豁免，引发了人们对全球芯片供应链的担忧。在特朗普总统推迟就美国可能参与以色列-伊朗冲突作出决定后，地缘政治的不确定性加剧，尽管以色列加强了对伊朗关键目标的打击。周五的“三重转换”到期增加了波动性，促使短期国债反弹，并推动两年期国债收益率下跌4个基点。本周，标准普尔500指数和道琼斯指数分别下跌0.3%和0.1%，纳斯达克指数上涨0.1%。

The S&P 500 closed 0.2% lower on Friday, the Nasdaq fell 0.5%, while the Dow added 35 points, as investors weighed the prospects of Federal Reserve rate cuts against rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Fed Governor Waller’s suggestion that rate cuts could arrive as early as July contrasted sharply with Chair Powell’s more cautious, data-dependent stance. Semiconductor stocks like Nvidia and TSMC, dropped over 1% following reports that the US may revoke export waivers, raising concerns over global chip supply chains. Geopolitical uncertainty deepened after President Trump delayed a decision on potential US military involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, even as Israel intensified its strikes on key Iranian targets. Friday’s “triple witching” expiration added volatility, prompting a rebound in shorter-dated Treasuries and driving two-year yields down four basis points. On the week, the S&P 500 and the Dow fell 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively, while Nasdaq added 0.1%.

标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数周五收跌，收于26498点，本周小幅下跌。特朗普总统决定将美国对伊朗-以色列冲突的干预推迟两周，这一决定最初缓解了压力，但以色列驻联合国大使誓言在伊朗核威胁消除之前“我们不会停止”袭击，抵消了这一影响。与此同时，卡尼总理承诺在30天内与华盛顿达成全面贸易协议，从而避免报复性的钢铁和铝关税，缓解了与出口相关的焦虑，并支撑了资源和工业股票。在行业方面，科技股领跌，Constellation Software、CGI和Celestica下跌0.8%至2.1%，而与大宗商品挂钩的能源和贱金属股也拖累了基准。相反，电子商务巨头Shopify逆势上涨1.8%。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index pared early gains and closed slightly lower at 26,498 on Friday, leaving the week marginally in the red. Initial relief from President Trump’s decision to delay US intervention in the Iran–Israel conflict by up to two weeks was offset by Israel’s UN ambassador vowing “we will not stop” attacks until Iran’s nuclear threat is dismantled. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Carney’s pledge to secure a comprehensive trade deal with Washington within 30 days, thereby averting retaliatory steel and aluminum tariffs, eased export-related anxieties and underpinned resource and industrial stocks. On the sector front, technology led the decline as Constellation Software, CGI and Celestica fell between 0.8% and 2.1%, while commodity-linked energy and base-metals names also weighed on the benchmark. Conversely, e-commerce giant Shopify bucked the trend with a 1.8% gain.

布伦特原油期货周五下跌2.3%，收于每桶77美元，但仍连续第三周上涨。特朗普总统决定推迟美国对伊朗的潜在军事介入，为可能就伊朗核计划进行的外交谈判留出时间，缓和了中东地缘政治紧张局势。然而，局势仍然不稳定，据报道，以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡下令加强对伊朗战略和政府场所的打击。尽管紧张局势加剧，伊朗仍继续出口原油，据报道本周每天装载220万桶，为五周来的最高水平。与此同时，油价受到美国原油库存大幅下降的支撑，本周早些时候的政府数据显示，这是一年来最大的单周跌幅。地缘政治风险和供应紧缩的组合有助于维持石油市场的整体看涨情绪。

Brent crude oil futures declined 2.3% to settle at $77 per barrel on Friday but still posted a third consecutive weekly gain. The slight decline came as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East were tempered by President Trump’s decision to delay potential US military involvement against Iran, allowing time for possible diplomatic negotiations over its nuclear program. However, the situation remains volatile, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly ordering intensified strikes on strategic and government sites in Iran. Despite the heightened tensions, Iran has continued crude exports, reportedly loading 2.2 million barrels per day this week, the highest level in five weeks. Meanwhile, oil prices found support from a sharper-than-expected drop in US crude inventories, with government data earlier in the week showing the largest weekly drawdown in a year. This mix of geopolitical risk and tightening supply helped maintain overall bullish sentiment in the oil market.