土耳其里拉/日元 (TRYJPY) 加自选

美元走低，交易员押注鸽派美联储：欧元/美元、英镑/美元、美元/加元、美元/日元分析。外汇交易员押注美联储将在周三下调联邦基金利率。

U.S. Dollar Moves Lower As Traders Bet On Dovish Fed: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY.Forex traders bet that Fed will cut the federal funds rate on Wednesday.

9月中旬，在法院将对主要反对党共和党领导层的裁决推迟到10月24日后，土耳其里拉稳定在41.2美元的历史低点附近。该案件的核心是据称该党2023年党代会中的违规行为及其当选领导层的罢免，最初定于9月15日。这一延迟为担心政治不稳定的投资者提供了一些暂时的缓解，受影响最严重的银行股引领了复苏。另外，数百名共和人民党成员，包括埃尔多安总统的主要政治对手伊斯坦布尔市长埃克雷姆·伊玛莫格鲁，仍被拘留，等待对涉嫌腐败和恐怖主义联系的广泛调查的审判。在货币方面，土耳其央行9月将基准一周回购利率下调250个基点至40.5%，略低于41%的预期。8月份年通货膨胀率降至32.95%，而2025年第二季度GDP同比增长4.8%。

The Turkish lira steadied around record lows of 41.2 per USD in mid-September after a court postponed until October 24 a ruling on the leadership of the main opposition Republican People’s Party. The case, centered on alleged irregularities in the party’s 2023 congress and the removal of its elected leadership, had initially been scheduled for September 15. The delay provided some momentary relief to investors concerned about political instability, with banking stocks—among the hardest hit—leading the recovery. Separately, hundreds of CHP members, including Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, President Erdogan’s chief political rival, remain in detention pending trial in a wide-ranging investigation into alleged corruption and terrorism links. On the monetary front, the Central Bank of Turkey cut its benchmark one-week repo rate by 250 bps in September to 40.5%, slightly below expectations of 41%. Annual inflation eased to 32.95% in August while GDP expanded 4.8% yoy in Q2 2025.

土耳其BIST 100指数在9月中旬反弹至10900点以上，此前法院将对主要反对党共和党领导层的裁决推迟到10月24日。该案件的核心是据称该党2023年党代会中的违规行为及其当选领导层的罢免，最初定于9月15日。这一延迟为担心政治不稳定的投资者提供了一些暂时的缓解，受影响最严重的银行股引领了复苏。另外，数百名共和人民党成员，包括埃尔多安总统的主要政治对手伊斯坦布尔市长埃克雷姆·伊玛莫格鲁，仍被拘留，等待对涉嫌腐败和恐怖主义联系的广泛调查的审判。在货币方面，土耳其央行9月将基准一周回购利率下调250个基点至40.5%，略低于41%的预期。8月份年通货膨胀率降至32.95%，而2025年第二季度GDP同比增长4.8%。

Turkey’s BIST 100 index rebounded above the 10,900 level in mid-September after a court postponed until October 24 a ruling on the leadership of the main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party. The case, centered on alleged irregularities in the party’s 2023 congress and the removal of its elected leadership, had initially been scheduled for September 15. The delay provided some momentary relief to investors concerned about political instability, with banking stocks—among the hardest hit—leading the recovery. Separately, hundreds of CHP members, including Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, President Erdogan’s chief political rival, remain in detention pending trial in a wide-ranging investigation into alleged corruption and terrorism links. On the monetary front, the Central Bank of Turkey cut its benchmark one-week repo rate by 250 bps in September to 40.5%, slightly below expectations of 41%. Annual inflation eased to 32.95% in August while GDP expanded 4.8% yoy in Q2 2025.

美元/日元：可能在147.20/148.15区间交易——大华银行集团。美元（USD）可能在147.20/148.15的区间内交易。大华银行集团外汇分析师Quek Ser Leang和Peter Chia指出，从长远来看，146.20/148.50的较窄区间可能足以暂时控制价格走势。

USD/JPY: Likely to trade in a range of 147.20/148.15 – UOB Group.US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range of 147.20/148.15. In the longer run, a narrower range of 146.20/148.50 is likely enough to contain the price movements for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.