瑞郎/南非兰特 (CHFZAR) 加自选

南非综合领先商业周期指标在上个月修正后下降1.5%后，于2025年1月环比上涨0.9%。反弹是由十个可用成分时间序列中的四个成分的增加推动的，这超过了五个成分的下降，而一个成分保持不变。最重要的积极因素是销售的新乘用车数量的六个月平滑增长率加快，批准的住宅建筑计划数量增加。另一方面，最大的负面因素是制造业每个工厂工人的平均工作时间下降，以及招聘广告空间六个月平滑增长率放缓。

The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa rose by 0.9% month-over-month in January 2025, following a revised 1.5% drop in the previous month. The rebound was driven by increases in four of the ten available component time series, which outweighed declines in five components, while one remained unchanged. The most significant positive contributors were an acceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in the number of new passenger vehicles sold and an increase in the number of residential building plans approved. On the other hand, the largest negative contributors were a decline in the average hours worked per factory worker in the manufacturing sector and a slowdown in the six-month smoothed growth rate in job advertisement space.

由于对国家预算和政治风险的担忧，南非10年期政府债券收益率自12月中旬以来稳步攀升，超过10.90%，为2024年6月以来的最高水平。虽然国家财政部的财政整顿努力和民族团结政府的成立改善了投资者情绪，但人们对政府实现可持续增长和财政纪律的能力仍持怀疑态度。财政部长Enoch Godongwana于3月12日提交了一份修订后的预算，尽管在两年内将拟议的增值税上调从2个百分点降至1个百分点，但该预算仍被大多数主要议会政党拒绝。在后种族隔离时代，预算可能无法在3月31日财政年度结束前通过，这是第一次，因为戈东瓦纳的非国大需要至少一个其他主要政党的支持。这是非国大在南非民主时代首次失去议会多数席位后成立的联盟面临的最大考验。

South Africa's 10-year government bond yield has climbed steadily since mid-December, surpassing 10.90%, its highest since June 2024, amid concerns over the national budget and political risks. While the National Treasury’s fiscal consolidation efforts and the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU) have improved investor sentiment, doubts linger about the government’s ability to achieve sustainable growth and fiscal discipline. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana presented a revised budget on March 12, which was rejected by most major parliamentary parties despite reducing the proposed VAT hike from 2 to 1 percentage point over two years. For the first time in the post-apartheid era, the budget may not pass before the fiscal year ends on March 31, as Godongwana’s ANC needs support from at least one other major party. This represents the biggest test for the coalition formed after the ANC lost its parliamentary majority for the first time in South Africa’s democratic era.

南非兰特兑美元汇率在18.1左右走强，得益于美元走软，交易员等待美国贸易关税及其全球经济影响的明确消息。在国内，南非储备银行（SARB）在3月20日的会议上选择保持利率不变，理由是担心通胀压力和与全球贸易和国家预算问题相关的经济不确定性。尽管2月份CPI结果良好，通货膨胀率稳定在3.2%，在SARB 3%至6%的目标范围内并接近下限，但这一决定还是做出了。与此同时，议会对预算的决定，包括2025年5月和2026年4月的增值税上调，在联盟政党的强烈反对下等待。分析人士预计会有一项决议，因为未能批准预算可能会导致对总统西里尔·拉马福萨的不信任投票，并有可能举行新的大选。

The South African rand was firmer around 18.1 per USD, helped by a softer dollar as traders awaited clarity on US trade tariffs and their global economic impact. Domestically, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) opted to keep interest rates unchanged at its March 20 meeting, citing concerns over inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty linked to both global trade and national budget issues. This decision came despite a favorable CPI outcome in February, with inflation holding steady at 3.2%, within and toward the lower end of the SARB's target range of 3% to 6%. Meanwhile, Parliament's decision on the Budget, which includes VAT increases in May 2025 and April 2026, is awaited amidst strong opposition from coalition parties. Analysts foresee a resolution, as failure to approve the Budget could lead to a no-confidence vote for President Cyril Ramaphosa and the prospect of a new general election.

2024年第四季度，瑞士的经常账户盈余从去年同期的138亿瑞士法郎收窄至98亿瑞士法郎。主要收入缺口从2023年第四季度的36亿瑞士法郎增加到72亿瑞士法郎，而次要收入赤字从18亿瑞士法郎扩大到34亿瑞士法郎。此外，服务账户缺口从2024年第四季度的87亿瑞士法郎增至94亿瑞士法郎。与此同时，2024年第四季度商品账户盈余从一年前的279亿瑞士法郎增加到300亿瑞士法郎。

Switzerland's current account surplus narrowed to CHF 9.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024 from CHF 13.8 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year. The primary income shortfall increased to CHF 7.2 billion from CHF 3.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023, while the secondary income deficit widened to CHF 3.4 billion from CHF 1.8 billion. In addition, services account shortfall went up to CHF 9.4 billion from CHF 8.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024. Meanwhile, the goods account surplus increased to CHF 30 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024 from CHF 27.9 billion a year earlier.