瑞郎/南非兰特 (CHFZAR) 加自选

瑞士10年期政府债券收益率升至0.15%以上，为10月31日以来的最高水平，因为对美国政府关门可能结束的乐观情绪降低了避险需求。周一，参议院向众议院通过了一项关键的拨款法案，该法案可能会在几天内结束美国政府长达41天的停摆。与此同时，最近的一份媒体报道显示，美国和瑞士即将达成一项贸易协议，该协议可能会将美国对瑞士产品的关税从39%降至15%，与适用于几个欧盟国家的关税保持一致。在货币政策方面，在Tschudin和Schlegel官员最近发表评论后，人们仍然预计瑞士国家银行将在12月11日保持其政策不变，他们表示，尽管10月通胀低于预期，但目前的利率是适当的。

The Swiss 10-year government bond yield rose above 0.15%, the highest level since October 31, as optimism about a possible end to the US government shutdown reduced safe-haven demand. The Senate on Monday has passed a crucial funding bill to the House of Representatives that could bring the 41-day US government shutdown to an end within days. Meanwhile, a recent media report indicated the US and Switzerland are nearing a trade agreement that may reduce US tariffs on Swiss products to 15% from 39%, aligning with those applied to several EU countries. On the monetary policy front, expectations remain that the Swiss National Bank will leave its policy unchanged on December 11, following recent comments from officials Tschudin and Schlegel, who said current rates are appropriate despite softer-than-expected October inflation.

瑞士法郎兑美元汇率升至0.80左右，为10月下旬以来的最高点，寄希望于美国和瑞士很快达成贸易协议。据彭博社报道，在瑞士高管与特朗普总统会晤后，美国和瑞士之间的贸易协议可能会在未来两周内宣布，美国对瑞士出口的关税可能会从目前的39%降至15%。美国总统后来证实，他的政府正在“努力达成一项协议，将关税降低一点。”与此同时，瑞士国家银行（SNB）董事长马丁·施莱格尔（Martin Schlegel）最近的言论仍支持法郎，他排除了恢复负利率的可能性。施莱格尔表示，通胀应“在未来几个季度略有上升”，这证明了长期保持利率不变的合理性。与此同时，避险需求持续存在，尽管水平较低，反映出尽管美国政府关门即将结束，但市场仍持谨慎态度。

The Swiss franc strengthened to around 0.80 per USD, its highest since late October, on hopes for a trade deal between the US and Switzerland soon. According to Bloomberg, a trade deal between the US and Switzerland could be announced in the next two weeks, with US tariffs on Swiss exports likely reduced to 15% from the current 39%, following meetings between top Swiss executives and President Trump. The US President later confirmed his administration was “working on a deal to get their tariffs a little bit lower.” Meanwhile, the franc remains supported by recent comments from Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel, who ruled out a return to negative interest rates. Schlegel said inflation should “rise slightly in the coming quarters”, justifying keeping rates on hold for an extended period. At the same time, safe-haven demand persisted, albeit at lower levels, reflecting cautious sentiment despite the prospect of an imminent end to the US government shutdown.

2025年9月，南非制造业产出同比增长0.3%，从上月1.5%的下降中恢复过来，好于分析师预测的0.3%的下降。这标志着工业增长的第一个月，尽管在连续两个月下降之后，增长非常温和。机动车辆、零部件和配件以及其他运输设备（+7.6%，增加0.5分）和食品饮料部门（+1.8%，增加0.5%）是最大的积极贡献者。电机下降（-7.3%）；木材和木制品、纸张、出版印刷（-5.3%）和基础钢铁、有色金属 产品、金属制品和机械（-1.2%）部分抵消了整体增长。经季节性调整的月度数据显示，工厂产出在上个月上调0.7%后，下降了0.5%。与2025年第二季度相比，2025年第三季度的制造业产量增长了0.1%。

Manufacturing output in South Africa rose by 0.3% year-on-year in September 2025, recovering from a 1.5% decrease in the prior month and better than analysts' estimates of 0.3% fall. This marked the first month of industrial growth, albeit very mild, following two consecutive months of decline. The motor vehicles, parts and accessories, and other transport equipment (+7.6%, adding 0.5 points) and the food and beverages divisions (+1.8%, adding 0.5 points) were the biggest positive contributors. Declines in electrical machinery (-7.3%); wood and wood products, paper, publishing and printing (-5.3%) and basic iron and steel, non-ferrous metal products, metal products and machinery (-1.2%) partly offset the overall increase. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, factory output shrank by 0.5%, after an upwardly revised 0.7% increase in the previous month. Manufacturing production rose by 0.1% in the third quarter of 2025 compared with the second quarter of 2025.

南非的失业率在2025年第三季度降至31.9%，为2024年第四季度以来的最低水平，而第二季度为33.2%，标志着今年首次下降。失业人数减少36万，至810万人，劳动力减少11.2万，至2510万人，就业人数增加24.8万，至1710万人。扩大的失业率，包括气馁的工人，从第二季度的43%降至42.4%。十个行业中有六个行业实现了就业增长，主要是建筑业（+13万至139万）、社区业（+11.6万至398.8万）和贸易业（+10.8万至342.4万），而损失主要集中在制造业（-6.2万至161万）和金融业（-5.4万至293万）。九个省中有七个省的失业率下降，其中林波波省（下降5.2个百分点至29.8%）、自由州（下降2.3个百分点至36.2%）和西北部（下降2个百分点至38.1%）的失业率降幅最大。衡量15至24岁求职者的青年失业率在第三季度降至58.5%的两年低点。

South Africa's unemployment rate eased to 31.9% in Q3 2025, the lowest level since Q4 2024, compared to 33.2% in Q2, marking the first decline this year. The number of unemployed fell by 360,000 to 8.1 million, the labor force dropped by 112,000 to 25.1 million, and employed individuals rose by 248,000 to 17.1 million. The expanded unemployment rate, including discouraged workers, fell to 42.4% from 43% in Q2. Six of ten industries recorded job gains, led by construction (+130,000 to 1.39 million), community (+116,000 to 3.988 million), and trade (+108,000 to 3.424 million), while losses were concentrated in manufacturing (-62,000 to 1.61 million) and finance (-54,000 to 2.93 million). Unemployment declined in seven of nine provinces, with the largest drops in Limpopo (-5.2 points to 29.8%), Free State (-2.3 points to 36.2%), and North West (-2 points to 38.1%). The youth unemployment rate, measuring job-seekers between 15 and 24 years old, fell to a two-year low of 58.5% in Q3.