瑞郎/南非兰特 (CHFZAR) 加自选

FranC进入湍流区，球在SNB一侧。美元兑瑞士法郎的交易价格低于0.8000，在7月份从这些水平反弹后，又回到了14年来的低点。早些时候，在2010年和2014年，该货币对仅以自由落体模式下跌，迫使央行进行干预并扭转趋势。

FranC Entered Turbulence Zone, Ball on the Side of SNB.USDCHF is trading below 0.8000, returning to the area of 14-year lows after rebounding from these levels in July. Earlier, in 2010 and 2014, the pair traded lower only in free-fall mode, forcing the central bank to intervene and reverse the trend.

南非10年期政府债券收益率已降至9.20%左右，为1月下旬以来的新低，因为对美国降息的预期吸引了投资者进入新兴市场。由于可靠的货币政策、公平的货币估值和高实际收益率，该国的债券越来越有吸引力。即使通胀似乎稳定在央行目标区间的下限附近，实际收益率仍然是新兴市场中最高的。逐步的结构性改善，如更可靠的电力供应、稳定的联合政府、改善的财政政策前景和不断增加的基础设施投资，支持了货币并进一步增强了投资者的信心。然而，由于经济增长仍低于1%，贸易关税带来了重大挑战，因此需要做出更多努力来刺激经济。

South Africa’s 10-year government bond yield has fallen to around 9.20%, a fresh low level since late January, as expectations of US interest rate cuts attract investors to emerging markets. The country’s bonds are increasingly appealing due to credible monetary policy, fair currency valuation, and high real yields. Even with inflation seemingly anchored near the lower end of the central bank’s target range, real yields remain among the highest in emerging markets. Gradual structural improvements—such as a more reliable electricity supply, a stable coalition government, an improving fiscal policy outlook, and rising infrastructure investment—support the currency and further strengthen investor confidence. However, more efforts are needed to stimulate the economy, as growth remains below 1% and trade tariffs pose significant challenges.

南非兰特兑美元微涨至17.3，徘徊在2024年11月的高点附近，受到贵金属价格（尤其是黄金）强劲和美元疲软的支撑。投资者的注意力集中在即将公布的国内通胀数据以及美联储和南非储备银行本周晚些时候的预期政策决定上。与此同时，在国家财政部和央行就采用较低的通胀目标进行持续讨论的情况下，该国的通胀预期在第三季度继续放缓。人们普遍预计，新加坡储备银行将在9月18日将基准贷款利率保持在7%不变，旨在遏制价格压力，并逐步将预期与3%的通胀目标保持一致。7月份的通货膨胀率从3月份的2.7%上升到3.5%，年终预测接近4%。一些分析师认为，该行对通胀目标的前瞻性指引将鼓励其在5月和7月降息后维持目前的回购利率。

The South African rand firmed slightly toward 17.3 per USD, hovering near November 2024 highs, supported by strong precious metals prices—particularly gold—and a weakening US dollar. Investor attention was focused on the upcoming domestic inflation data and anticipated policy decisions from both the US Federal Reserve and the South African Reserve Bank later in the week. Meanwhile, the country’s inflation expectations continued to ease into Q3 amid ongoing discussions between the National Treasury and the central bank about adopting a lower inflation target. The SARB is widely expected to keep its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 7% on September 18, aiming to contain price pressures and gradually align expectations toward a 3% inflation target. July inflation rose to 3.5% from 2.7% in March, with year-end forecasts near 4%. Some analysts believe the bank’s forward guidance on the inflation target will encourage it to maintain the current repo rate following cuts in May and July.

南非的长期通胀预期降至历史最低水平。周一的一项季度调查显示，在央行表示将致力于降低通胀水平后，南非的长期通胀预期降至历史最低水平。

South Africa's longer-term inflation expectations drop to record low.South Africa's longer-term inflation expectations fell to their lowest level on record, a quarterly survey showed on Monday, after the central bank said it would aim for a lower inflation level.