澳元/日元价格预测：跌破94.50，9天均线作为初始支撑。澳元/日元回撤了前一交易日的近期涨幅，周四亚洲时段交易在94.50左右。根据日线图的技术分析，货币十字架仍处于上升通道模式，表明普遍存在看涨倾向。

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Moves below 94.50, nine-day EMA acts as initial support.AUD/JPY retraces its recent gains from the previous session, trading around 94.50 during the Asian hours on Thursday. As per the technical analysis of the daily chart, the currency cross remains within the ascending channel pattern, indicating a prevailing bullish bias.

周四，澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率跌至4.18%，部分回吐了前一交易日的大幅上涨，因为投资者在储备银行即将出台的政策决定之前做好了准备。由于经济增长仍然疲软，通胀风险已经消退，人们普遍预计央行下周将把3.85%的现金利率下调25个基点。由于出口下降而进口增加，澳大利亚5月份的商品贸易顺差降至近五年低点，这加剧了鸽派情绪，表明外部需求降温。此前，周三公布了一份令人失望的零售销售报告，指出国内消费疲软。市场还意味着进一步宽松至2.85%的底部，使其低于大多数中性的估计。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell toward 4.18% on Thursday, partially retracing the sharp rise seen in the previous session as investors positioned ahead of the Reserve Bank’s upcoming policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to lower its 3.85% cash rate by 25bps next week, as economic growth remained weak and inflation risks have faded. Adding to the dovish sentiment, Australia’s trade surplus on goods shrank to a near five-year low in May, as exports dropped while imports increased—signaling cooling external demand. That followed a disappointing report on retail sales on Wednesday, which pointed to subdued domestic consumption. The market also implies further easing to a floor of 2.85%, taking it under most estimates of neutral.

周四，澳元跌至0.657美元左右，结束了连续三个交易日的涨势，受到贸易数据疲软的拖累。澳大利亚5月份的贸易顺差大幅收窄至22.4亿澳元，远低于50.9亿澳元的预期和4月份修订后的48.6亿澳元。这是近5年来最小的顺差，由于美国受关税影响的出口疲软，出口创下3个月新低。澳大利亚最大贸易伙伴中国的服务业采购经理人指数降至9个月低点，未达到预期，这增加了压力。与此同时，市场正在努力应对美国主导的贸易紧张局势加剧，因为围绕新的美越贸易协议的不确定性以及对将中国与关键供应链隔离开来的担忧日益加剧。与此同时，由于美联储降息押注增加，美元走弱，澳元损失有限，保持在8个月高点附近。投资者现在等待下周澳大利亚储备银行的决定，在增长疲软和通胀风险缓解的情况下，市场几乎肯定会降息。

The Australian dollar slipped to around $0.657 on Thursday, ending a three-session winning streak, weighed down by lackluster trade figures. Australia’s May trade surplus narrowed sharply to AUD 2.24 billion, well below expectations of AUD 5.09 billion and a revised AUD 4.86 billion in April. It was the smallest surplus in nearly 5 years, with exports hitting a 3-month low due to weaker US shipments affected by tariffs. Adding pressure, services PMI data from China, Australia’s top trading partner, fell to a 9-month low and missed forecasts. This came while markets grappled with rising US-led trade tensions, as uncertainty surrounds the new US-Vietnam trade deal and concerns grew over efforts to isolate China from key supply chains. Meanwhile, a weaker US dollar amid rising Fed rate cut bets, limited losses for the Aussie, keeping it near 8-month highs. Investors now await next week’s RBA decision, with markets nearly certain of a rate cut amid weak growth and easing inflation risks.

继4月份下调2.7%后，澳大利亚商品出口在2025年5月环比下降2.7%，至424.0亿澳元的三个月低点。这一下降主要是由于对美国的出口疲软，受到特朗普政府征收的关税的抑制。非农村商品出口下降2.4%，至318.8亿澳元，原因是煤炭、焦炭和煤球（-2.0%）、其他矿物燃料（-11.5%）、其他制成品（-3.5%）和其他非农村商品（-4.4%）以及承运人在港口采购的商品（-11.6%）的销售额下降。此外，受肉类和肉类制品（-15.7%）以及羊毛和羊皮（-16.5%）下滑的影响，农村商品的出货量下降了3.5%，至62.8亿澳元。与此同时，非货币黄金出口下降3.4%，至42.2亿澳元。

Australia’s goods exports fell by 2.7% month-over-month to a three-month low of AUD 42.40 billion in May 2025, following a downwardly revised 2.7% decline in April. The drop was largely driven by weaker shipments to the US, dampened by tariffs imposed under the Trump administration. Non-rural goods exports dropped 2.4% to AUD 31.88 billion, due to lower sales of coal, coke & briquettes (-2.0%), other mineral fuels (-11.5%), other manufactured goods (-3.5%), other non-rural (-4.4%), and goods procured in ports by carriers (-11.6%). Also, shipments of rural goods shrank by 3.5% to AUD 6.28 billion, weighed by slumps in meat & meat preparations (-15.7%) and wool and sheepskin (-16.5%). Meanwhile, exports of non-monetary gold fell 3.4% fall to AUD 4.22 billion.