一周前：就业数据增强美联储的耐心后，美国解放日裁员，澳大利亚储备银行将裁员。特朗普政府刚刚取得司法胜利，实现了以色列和伊朗之间的停火，即将结束美国外交经济政策戏剧性变化的第一章。解放日以来的90天中断将在未来一周结束。

Week Ahead: US Liberation Day Redux after Jobs Data Reinforce Fed's Patience, and RBA to Cut.Fresh off judicial victories, and achieving a cease fire between Israel and Iran, the Trump administration is on the verge of closing its initial chapter in its dramatic changes of America's foreign economic policy. The 90-day hiatus since Liberation Day comes to an end in the week ahead.

市场每周展望-澳大利亚储备银行和新西兰储备银行利率决定，7月9日特朗普最后期限和金砖国家会议交易。

Markets Weekly Outlook – RBA and RBNZ Rate Decisions, July 9th Trump Deadline and BRICS Meeting Trading on the Go.

欧元/美元，美元/日元和澳元/美元预测–美元有安静的时段。美元在周五早盘交易中有些平静，因为由于美国的假期，交易量将大幅下降。这是一个将继续密切关注美联储的市场。

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar has Quiet Session.The US dollar has been somewhat quiet in early trading on Friday, as the volume will have been down quite a bit due to the holiday in the USA. This is a market that will continue to pay close attention to the Federal Reserve.

周五，澳元兑美元汇率保持在0.657美元左右，徘徊在八个月高点附近，尽管人们普遍预计澳大利亚储备银行将在7月8日的货币政策会议上实施今年第三次降息。在通胀降温和经济前景疲软的情况下，预计央行将再降息25个基点。2025年第一季度通货膨胀率为2.4%，保持在2021年初以来的最低水平，仍在澳大利亚储备银行的2-3%目标范围内。与此同时，第一季度GDP仅增长0.2%，低于2024年第四季度的0.6%。经济学家和市场最初预计澳大利亚储备银行今年将降息三次，但在5月份将预测上调至四次，现在预计将降息五次，这是由于通胀放缓速度快于预期和经济疲软迹象造成的。尽管人们对进一步降息的预期越来越高，但受美元普遍疲软的推动，澳元今年迄今已上涨6%以上。

The Australian dollar held around $0.657 on Friday, hovering near eight-month highs, despite widespread expectations that the RBA will implement its third interest rate cut of the year at its July 8 monetary policy meeting. The central bank is expected to lower rates by another 25 basis points amid cooling inflation and a weakening economic outlook. Inflation stood at 2.4% in Q1 2025, remaining at its lowest level since early 2021 and still within the RBA’s 2–3% target range. Meanwhile, GDP grew just 0.2% in Q1, down from 0.6% in Q4 2024. Economists and markets initially expected three RBA rate cuts this year but raised their forecasts to four in May, and now anticipate up to five, driven by faster-than-expected disinflation and signs of economic weakness. Still, despite growing expectations of deeper rate reductions, the Australian dollar has risen more than 6% year-to-date, buoyed by broad-based weakness in the US dollar.