周五,澳元兑美元汇率保持在0.657美元左右,徘徊在八个月高点附近,尽管人们普遍预计澳大利亚储备银行将在7月8日的货币政策会议上实施今年第三次降息。在通胀降温和经济前景疲软的情况下,预计央行将再降息25个基点。2025年第一季度通货膨胀率为2.4%,保持在2021年初以来的最低水平,仍在澳大利亚储备银行的2-3%目标范围内。与此同时,第一季度GDP仅增长0.2%,低于2024年第四季度的0.6%。经济学家和市场最初预计澳大利亚储备银行今年将降息三次,但在5月份将预测上调至四次,现在预计将降息五次,这是由于通胀放缓速度快于预期和经济疲软迹象造成的。尽管人们对进一步降息的预期越来越高,但受美元普遍疲软的推动,澳元今年迄今已上涨6%以上。
The Australian dollar held around $0.657 on Friday, hovering near eight-month highs, despite widespread expectations that the RBA will implement its third interest rate cut of the year at its July 8 monetary policy meeting. The central bank is expected to lower rates by another 25 basis points amid cooling inflation and a weakening economic outlook. Inflation stood at 2.4% in Q1 2025, remaining at its lowest level since early 2021 and still within the RBA’s 2–3% target range. Meanwhile, GDP grew just 0.2% in Q1, down from 0.6% in Q4 2024. Economists and markets initially expected three RBA rate cuts this year but raised their forecasts to four in May, and now anticipate up to five, driven by faster-than-expected disinflation and signs of economic weakness. Still, despite growing expectations of deeper rate reductions, the Australian dollar has risen more than 6% year-to-date, buoyed by broad-based weakness in the US dollar.