澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率在4.57%左右，徘徊在一个多月来的最高水平附近，投资者消化了强劲的劳动力市场数据。1月份就业人数增加了44000人，是市场预期的20000人的两倍多。失业率也从12月的4%上升到4.1%，与预测相符。这些数字表明，就业市场仍然非常紧张，使进一步降息的情况更加复杂。本周早些时候，澳大利亚储备银行将现金利率下调25个基点至4.10%，这是四年多来的首次下调。然而，央行警告称，鉴于通胀的上行风险，不能保证进一步宽松。市场定价目前意味着4月份再次降息的可能性只有10%，并表明2025年的宽松幅度只有40个基点，相当于不到两次降息。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield traded around 4.57%, hovering near its highest level in over a month, as investors digested strong labor market data. Employment climbed by 44,000 over the month in January, more than double market expectations of a 20,000 rise. The unemployment rate also ticked up to 4.1% from 4% in December, in line with forecasts. These figures indicate that the job market remains very tight, complicating the case for more rate cuts. Earlier this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its cash rate by 25bps to 4.10%, marking the first reduction in more than four years. However, the central cautioned that further easing was not guaranteed given upside risks to inflation. Market pricing currently implies only a 10% probability of another rate cut in April and suggests just 40bps of easing for 2025, equivalent to fewer than two rate cuts.