意大利10年期债券收益率升至3.5%,结束了连续两天的下跌,这得益于新宣布的美日贸易协定的缓解,该协定缓解了对全球关税升级的担忧,并重新点燃了人们对美国和欧盟之间达成类似协议的期望。尽管如此,市场情绪仍然谨慎。报道显示,欧盟特使正在准备应急措施,以防与特朗普总统的贸易谈判陷入僵局,因为他的政府在8月1日的最后期限之前采取了更激进的立场。投资者的注意力现在转移到周四的欧洲央行政策会议和欧元区最大经济体PMI数据的发布上。人们普遍预计,欧洲央行在连续八次降息后将保持利率稳定,因为官员们在贸易紧张局势持续、欧元坚挺和通胀疲软的情况下暂停评估前景。货币市场完全预计到年底将降息25个基点,9月份降息的可能性约为50%。
Italy's 10-year bond yield rose toward 3.5%, ending a two-day losing streak, driven by relief over the newly announced US-Japan trade agreement, which eased fears of escalating global tariffs and reignited expectations for a similar deal between the US and the EU. Still, market sentiment remains cautious. Reports indicate that EU envoys are preparing contingency measures in case trade negotiations with President Trump falter, as his administration takes a more aggressive stance ahead of the August 1 deadline. Investor focus now shifts to Thursday’s European Central Bank policy meeting and the release of flash PMI data from the eurozone’s largest economies. The ECB is widely expected to hold rates steady after eight straight cuts, as officials pause to assess the outlook amid lingering trade tensions, a firm euro, and weak inflation. Money markets are fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by year-end, with about a 50% probability of it occurring in September.