美元：特朗普第二任期如何削弱美元的反向观点。传统观点认为，唐纳德·特朗普的第二个总统任期将通过保护主义政策、关税和强劲的经济增长来加强美元，乍一看，这些动态为美元描绘了一幅令人信服的看涨图景。

US Dollar: A Contrarian Perspective on How Trump's Second Term Could Weaken the USD.Conventional wisdom suggests Donald Trump's second Presidential term will strengthen the U.S. dollar through a combination of protectionist policies, tariffs, and strong economic growth, and at first glance, those dynamics paint a compelling bullish picture for the greenback.

可可期货价格从12月3日触及的每吨8809美元的一周低点上涨至每吨9100美元以上，原因是对供应的担忧再次出现。主要可可种植国科特迪瓦的跨国可可出口商担心，在恶劣天气袭击农作物后，未来几个月农民的供应会下降。国际可可价格经历了历史性的飙升，在12个月内上涨了300%以上，4月份达到每吨近12220美元，这是由于科特迪瓦和加纳的收成不佳，再加上强烈的厄尔尼诺天气事件和多年的投资不足。自那以后，价格有所回落，对当前作物的预期有所改善。与此同时，国际可可协会（ICCO）将其2023/24年全球可可赤字估计从5月份的-46.2万吨上调至-47.8万吨，为60多年来最大。ICCO还将产量预测同比下调13.1%，至438.0万吨，并预计全球库存与研磨比为27.0%，为46年来的最低水平。

Cocoa futures rose past $9,100 per tonne, up from an over one-week low of $8,809 per tonne hit on December 3rd, amid renewed concerns over supply. Multinational cocoa exporters in top grower Ivory Coast fear a drop in supplies from farmers in the coming months after adverse weather hit crops. International cocoa prices have experienced a historic price surge, rising by over 300% in the space of 12 months to hit nearly $12,220 per tonne in April, driven by poor harvests in Ivory Coast and Ghana, exacerbated by powerful El Niño weather events and years of underinvestment. Since then, prices have eased somewhat, with improved expectations for the current crop. Meanwhile, the International Cocoa Association (ICCO) raised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit estimate to -478,000 MT, the largest in over 60 years, from May's -462,000 MT. The ICCO also cut its production forecast by 13.1% year-on-year to 4.380 million MT and projected the global stocks-to-grindings ratio at 27.0%, a 46-year low.

鲍威尔演讲前美元回落：欧元/美元、英镑/美元、美元/加元、美元/日元分析。由于交易员关注低于预期的ISM服务业采购经理人指数报告，美元正在下跌。

U.S. Dollar Pulls Back Ahead Of Powell Speech: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY.U.S. dollar is losing ground as traders focus on the weaker-than-expected ISM Services PMI report.

美国取暖油期货跌至每加仑2.20美元以下，接近12月2日的两周低点2.18美元，有证据表明供应充足，取暖能源替代品更便宜。最新的EIA报告显示，馏分油库存增加了338万桶，这是自7月中旬以来的最大增幅，远远超过了截至10月29日的一周预计的200万桶增长。同样，取暖油库存增加了24.2万桶，与同一周减少32万桶的产品供应一致。这也与温和的天气预报相吻合，因为预计12月8日至18日的温暖天气将减少供暖需求。出于同样的原因，由于美国产量充足，天然气价格继续大幅下跌，给供暖替代品带来了下行压力。

US heating oil futures fell below $2.20 per gallon, nearing the two-week low of $2.18 on December 2nd, amid evidence of ample supply and cheaper heating energy alternatives. The latest EIA report revealed that distillate stockpiles saw a 3.38 million-barrel build, marking the biggest rise since mid-July and far surpassing the expected 2 million-barrel increase for the week ending October 29th. Similarly, heating oil stockpiles added 242,000 barrels, in line with reduced product supplies, which dropped by 320,000 barrels during the same week. This also coincided with milder weather forecasts, as warmer-than-expected conditions from December 8 to 18 are expected to reduce heating demand. For the same reasons, and due to ample US production, natural gas prices extended their sharp decline, pressuring heating alternatives downward.