尼日利亚10年期国债 (Nigeria10Y) 加自选

2024年11月，Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI从上月的46.9升至49.6。虽然最新数据标志着该国私营部门连续第五个月出现收缩，但下降幅度很小。这主要是由于11月新订单在10月稳步下降后恢复增长。产出继续下降，但速度较慢。就业人数也有所下降，从而结束了为期六个月的就业创造。与此同时，在价格压力巨大的情况下，公司减少了采购活动和投入品库存。 能源价格上涨、原材料成本上涨和货币疲软是主要因素。最后，11月商业信心继续下降，创下历史新低。

The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI rose to 49.6 in November 2024, up from 46.9 in the prior month. While the latest reading marked the fifth consecutive month of contraction in the country's private sector, the decline was only marginal. This was primarily due to the return to growth of new orders in November, after having decreased solidly in October. Output continued to fall but at a slower pace. Employment was also down, thereby ending a six-month sequence of job creation. Meanwhile, companies reduced both their purchasing activity and stocks of inputs amid steep price pressures. Higher energy prices, increases in the cost of raw materials, and lingering currency weakness were cited as the main factors. Lastly, business confidence continued to wane in November and hit a fresh record low.

2024年11月26日，尼日利亚央行将基准贷款利率上调25个基点，达到27.50%的历史新高，这是今年连续第六次加息。这一决定旨在应对通货膨胀，保护遭受重创的奈拉，以应对12月美元需求激增的预期。2024年10月，尼日利亚的通货膨胀率连续第二个月加速，攀升至33.9%的四个月高点。与此同时，在服务业的推动下，第三季度经济年增长率为3.46%，为三个季度以来的最快增速。奈拉今年兑美元贬值了约46%，部分原因是在多年来一直以人为的强势汇率盯住美元后，为允许其浮动所做的努力。尽管央行试图通过提供美元来满足国内需求来缓解压力，但它也受到了流动性差的影响。

Nigeria's central bank raised its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to a new record high of 27.50% on November 26th, 2024, marking the sixth consecutive hike this year. The decision was intended to tackle inflation and protect the battered naira in anticipation of a surge in dollar demand in December. Nigeria's inflation rate accelerated for the second straight month in October 2024, climbing to a four-month high of 33.9%. Meanwhile, the economy grew 3.46% annually in the third quarter, its fastest pace in three quarters, driven by the services sector. The naira has depreciated by around 46% against the dollar this year, partly due to efforts to allow it to float after being pegged at an artificially strong rate for years. It has also been affected by poor liquidity, despite the central bank’s attempts to alleviate pressure by supplying dollars to meet domestic demand.

2024年第三季度，尼日利亚经济同比增长3.46%，为2023年第四季度以来的最高水平，比上一季度的3.19%有所加快。非石油部门增长3.37%，高于上一时期的2.80%，主要受服务业的推动，服务业增长5.19%，占国内生产总值的53.58%。增长的主要贡献者包括金融和保险服务（+30.8%）、信息和通信（+5.9%）、运输和仓储（+12.2%）、贸易（+0.7%）和建筑（+2.9%）。与此同时，工业部门增长2.18%，农业活动增长1.14%。与此同时，至关重要的石油行业在第三季度上涨了5.17%，而前一季度上涨了10.15%。第三季度，日均原油产量达到147万桶/天，高于2024年第二季度的141万桶/日和去年同期的145万桶/日均。按季度计算，第三季度GDP增长了10%，而上一季度没有增长。

Nigeria's economy expanded by 3.46% year-on-year in Q3 2024, the most since Q4 2023 and quickening from 3.19% in the previous quarter. The non-oil sector grew by 3.37%, accelerating from 2.80% in the prior period, primarily driven by the services sector, which saw a 5.19% increase and accounted for 53.58% of overall GDP. Key contributors to growth included financial and insurance services (+30.8%), information and communication (+5.9%), transportation and storage (+12.2%), trade (+0.7%), and construction (+2.9%). In the meantime, the industrial sector advanced by 2.18% and agricultural activity rose by 1.14%. Meanwhile, the all-important oil sector rose by 5.17% in Q3, following a 10.15% jump in the previous period. Average daily crude oil production reached 1.47 million barrels per day in Q3, up from 1.41 million bpd in Q2 2024 and 1.45 million bpd in the same period last year. On a quarterly basis, the GDP grew by 10% in Q3, after showing no growth in the previous quarter.

2024年10月，尼日利亚的通货膨胀率连续第二个月上升，从9月的32.7%攀升至33.9%的四个月高点。这一增长主要是由于食品价格不断上涨、能源成本飙升和外汇市场持续波动造成的。由于严重洪水和主要农业地区持续危机导致收成减少，10月份食品通胀率从9月份的37.8%进一步加快至39.2%，食品通胀占尼日利亚通胀篮子的大部分。受取消补贴后汽油和天然气价格上涨的推动，交通通胀率也上升至29.3%，而住房和公用事业通胀率从9月份电价上涨的28.6%上升至28.8%。10月份，不包括波动较大的农产品和能源价格的核心通胀率从上个月的27.4%升至28.4%的历史最高点。在上月上涨2.5%之后，消费者价格指数环比上涨2.6%。

Nigeria's inflation rate rose for the second straight month in October 2024, climbing to a four-month high of 33.9% from 32.7% in September. The rise was driven primarily by escalating food prices, soaring energy costs and ongoing volatility in foreign exchange markets. Food inflation, which makes up most of Nigeria's inflation basket, quickened further to 39.2% in October, up from 37.8% in September, amid reduced harvests caused by severe flooding and ongoing crisis in key agricultural regions. Transportation inflation also picked up to 29.3%, driven by higher petrol and gas prices after subsidy removal, while housing and utilities inflation rose to 28.8%, up from 28.6% in September amid higher electricity tariffs. The core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural products and energy quickened to an all-time high of 28.4% in October, up from 27.4% in the previous month. On a monthly basis, consumer prices climbed by 2.6%, after a 2.5% rise in the previous month.