南非20年期国债 (SouthAfrica20Y) 加自选

南非的年通货膨胀率从前两个月的2.8%上升到2025年6月的3%，为四个月来的最高水平。这是由于食品和非酒精饮料（5月份为5.1%对4.8%）、酒精饮料和烟草（4.4%对4.3%）、健康（4.6%对4.4%）、信息和通信（1.1%对1%）、娱乐、体育和文化（2%对1.7%）、餐馆和住宿服务（2%对1.8%）以及个人护理和杂项服务（1.8%对1.7%）的价格上涨。另一方面，住房和公用事业（4.4%对4.5%）以及家具、家用设备和维护（1.1%对2%）的价格增长放缓。运输成本也继续下降，但下降速度较慢（-3.3%对-4.8%）。在5月份上涨0.2%之后，CPI每月上涨0.3%。与此同时，6月份的年度核心通胀率从上月的3%降至2.9%，为2021年4月以来的最低水平。

South Africa’s annual inflation rate rose to 3% in June 2025, the highest in four months, from 2.8% in each of the previous two months. This was driven by higher prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages (5.1% vs 4.8% in May), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (4.4% vs 4.3%), health (4.6% vs 4.4%), information and communication (1.1% vs 1%), recreation, sport and culture (2% vs 1.7%), restaurants and accommodation services (2% vs 1.8%), and personal care and miscellaneous services (1.8% vs 1.7%). On the other hand, price growth slowed for housing and utilities (4.4% vs 4.5%) and furnishings, household equipment and maintenance (1.1% vs 2%). Transport costs also continued to drop but at a softer pace (-3.3% vs -4.8%). On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.3%, following a 0.2% rise in May. Meanwhile, the annual core inflation rate edged down to 2.9% in June, the lowest since April 2021, from 3% in the prior month.

南非综合领先商业周期指标在上个月上调0.6%后，于2025年5月环比下降1.3%。这标志着连续第二个月下降，反映了十个可用组成部分时间序列中的九个出现了下降。最大的负面因素是批准的住宅建筑计划数量和制造业收到的国内订单量的减少。唯一的积极贡献来自南非以美元计价的出口商品价格指数的上涨。

The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa decreased by 1.3% month-over-month in May 2025, following an upwardly revised 0.6% fall in the previous month. This marked the second consecutive monthly decline, reflecting downturns in nine of the ten available component time series. The largest negative contributors were decreases in the number of residential building plans approved and the volume of domestic orders received in the manufacturing sector. The only positive contribution came from an increase in South Africa’s US dollar–denominated export commodity price index.

2025年5月，南非批准的建筑计划价值同比增长13.2%，达到92.1亿南非兰特，结束了三个月的低迷。加建和改建许可证（52.1%对4月份的2.6%）和住宅楼（3.4%对-19.6%）有所增加，而非住宅楼的许可证则有所下降（-4%对-42.4%）。

The value of building plans approved in South Africa rose by 13.2% year-on-year to ZAR 9,210 million in May 2025, ending a three-month downturn. Increases were seen in permits for additions and alterations (52.1% vs 2.6% in April) and residential buildings (3.4% vs -19.6%), contrasting with a decline in permits for non-residential buildings (-4% vs -42.4%).

南非兰特兑美元汇率在17.9左右变化不大，因为交易员继续关注全球贸易发展及其对货币政策的潜在影响。自7月14日唐纳德·特朗普总统宣布从8月1日开始对美国进口的南非商品征收30%的关税以来，兰特的波动性有所增加。南非作为金砖国家成员，正面临来自美国的额外关税威胁。与此同时，南非储备银行行长Lesetja Kganyago警告称，由于特朗普的关税和中国的通缩压力，美元走软给当地通胀前景增加了不确定性。他还警告说，如果实施，关税可能会给农业和汽车行业带来压力，对更广泛的经济产生负面影响。在南非7月31日利率决定之前，经济学家们意见不一，一些人预计由于持续的低通胀将再次降息，而另一些人则主张暂停加息。

The South African rand was little changed around 17.9 per USD, as traders continued to monitor global trade developments and their potential impact on monetary policies. The rand has seen increased volatility since July 14, when President Donald Trump announced a 30% tariff on US imports of South African goods to start on August 1. South Africa is facing an extra tariff threat from the US as a member of BRICS. Meanwhile, South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago cautioned that a weaker dollar due to Trump's tariffs and deflationary pressures in China are adding uncertainty to the local inflation outlook. He also warned that if implemented, tariffs are likely to pressure the agricultural and automotive industries, with negative implications for the broader economy. Economists are split ahead of South Africa’s July 31 rate decision, with some anticipating another cut due to persistently low inflation, while others advocate a pause.