南非10年期国债 (SouthAfrica10Y) 加自选

南非FNB/BER消费者信心指数从第三季度的-5降至2024年最后一个季度的-6，这是自2019年上半年以来的最高水平。尽管消费者士气下降，但节日期间的零售销售仍可能很愉快。FNB首席经济学家Mamello Matikinca Ngwenya表示：“自2024年第二季度以来，一系列有利的事态发展使消费者信心大幅上升，包括组建民族团结政府、终止甩负荷、通货膨胀大幅放缓、两次降息和实施双罐退休制度。”。

The FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index for South Africa edged down to -6 in the last quarter of 2024 from -5 in the third quarter which was the highest since the first half of 2019. Despite the decrease in consumer morale, festive season retail sales are still likely to be jolly. "A string of favorable developments has seen consumer confidence riding much higher since the second quarter of 2024, including the formation of a government of national unity, the termination of load-shedding, a substantial deceleration in inflation, two interest rate cuts and the implementation of the two-pot retirement system", said FNB Chief Economist Mamello Matikinca-Ngwenya.

标准普尔南非全球采购经理人指数从10月份的50.6升至2024年11月的50.9，标志着其连续第四个月扩张。这反映了私营部门状况的改善，这得益于产出和新订单的强劲增长，产出以2023年8月以来的最快速度增长。然而，销售增长放缓，仍集中在工业和批发零售业，而建筑和服务业则有所下降。与此同时，随着公司雇佣长期员工以满足更高的需求，就业人数六个月来首次小幅增长。在价格方面，价格压力在短暂缓解后再次出现，由于工资上涨和兰特走弱，投入成本小幅上涨。公司转嫁了这些成本，导致销售价格再次上涨。最后，在需求增强、通胀下降和降息的预期推动下，商业信心保持强劲，尽管在持续的成本和物流挑战下，乐观情绪降至五个月低点。

The S&P Global South Africa PMI rose to 50.9 in November 2024, up from 50.6 in October and marking its fourth straight month of expansion. This reflects improved private sector conditions, driven by a stronger rise in output and new orders, with output growing at its fastest pace since August 2023. However, sales growth slowed and remained concentrated in the industry and wholesale & retail sectors, while construction and services saw declines. Meanwhile, employment rose modestly for the first time in six months as firms hired permanent staff to meet higher demand. On the price front, price pressures returned after a brief respite, with input costs rising modestly due to higher wages and a weaker rand. Firms passed on these costs, leading to renewed increases in selling prices. Lastly, business confidence remained robust, driven by expectations of stronger demand, lower inflation, and rate cuts, though optimism dipped to a five-month low amid ongoing cost and logistical challenges.

信用评级机构穆迪于2024年12月3日确认了南非的Ba2评级，理由是该国在最近领导层更迭后具有弹性的金融部门和外部地位。穆迪预计，能源行业将在吸引私营部门投资方面发挥越来越突出的作用。然而，它也预计南非的经济增长将保持温和，政府债务负担稳定，风险平衡。该机构预计，新政府将推行旨在解决增长瓶颈的结构性改革，并继续进行财政整顿，以管理来自社会需求、利息支付和国有企业的支出压力。根据这些预期，标普在11月将南非的前景上调至积极，承认新政府在治理和改革方面有所改善。

Credit ratings agency Moody's affirmed South Africa's Ba2 rating on December 3, 2024, citing the country's resilient financial sector and external position following a recent change in leadership. Moody's anticipates that the energy sector will play an increasingly prominent role in attracting private sector investment. However, it also expects South Africa's economic growth to remain modest, with a stable government debt burden and balanced risks. The agency projects that the new government will pursue structural reforms aimed at addressing growth bottlenecks and continue fiscal consolidation efforts to manage spending pressures from social demands, interest payments, and state-owned enterprises. In line with these expectations, S&P revised South Africa's outlook to positive in November, acknowledging improvements in governance and reforms under the new administration.

受贵金属（尤其是黄金）上涨和美元回落的支撑，南非兰特小幅上涨至18.1美元左右。投资者继续权衡利率和全球经济的前景，因为地缘政治紧张局势的风险加剧，特朗普总统任期的不确定性挥之不去。在国内，南非经济在第三季度意外收缩了0.3%，此前一季度因干旱条件导致农业产量急剧下降，经济增长率修正为0.3%。经济衰退破坏了总统西里尔·拉马福萨及其联盟伙伴优先考虑增长和创造就业机会的努力。与此同时，南非的通货膨胀率目前为2.8%，为四年来的最低水平，远低于南非储备银行4.5%的中点目标。

The South African rand edged slightly higher to around 18.1 per USD, supported by gains in precious metals, particularly gold, and a retreat in the dollar. Investors continued to weigh the outlook for interest rates and the global economy amid heightened risks from geopolitical tensions and lingering uncertainty around Trump's presidency. Domestically, South Africa's economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.3% in the third quarter, following a revised 0.3% expansion in the previous quarter, driven by a sharp decline in agricultural output due to drought conditions. This downturn undermines President Cyril Ramaphosa and his coalition partners’ efforts to prioritize growth and job creation. Meanwhile, South Africa's inflation currently stands at 2.8%, the lowest in four years and well below the SARB’s midpoint target of 4.5%.