美联储的Bostic认为关税影响将导致长期通胀。

Fed's Bostic sees prolonged inflation from tariff impact.

上证综指微涨0.1%，至3464点左右，而深证成分股周五在涨跌互现中下跌0.5%，至10482点，由于投资者继续努力应对全球贸易的不确定性，内地股市难以确定方向。在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布计划开始就贸易关税问题发出信函后，投资者情绪仍然谨慎，这可能会设定新的单边税率。与此同时，美国开始取消对中国芯片设计软件、乙烷和喷气发动机等关键技术的出口限制，这表明美国正在努力缓和贸易紧张局势。这些措施是旨在恢复稀土和先进技术交流的更广泛的美中贸易协定的一部分。涨幅显著的包括富士康工业（+3.1%）、深圳唯尔（+8.1%）和吴印刷电路（+7.1%）。本周，上海和深圳指数均有望上涨1%以上。

The Shanghai Composite edged up 0.1% to around 3,464, while the Shenzhen Component slipped 0.5% to 10,482 in mixed trade on Friday, with mainland stocks struggling for clear direction as investors continued to grapple with global trade uncertainties. Investor sentiment remained cautious after US President Donald Trump announced plans to begin issuing letters on trade tariffs, potentially setting new unilateral rates. Meanwhile, the US started lifting export restrictions on key technologies such as chip design software, ethane, and jet engines to China, signaling efforts to de-escalate trade tensions. These measures are part of a broader US-China trade agreement aimed at resuming exchanges in rare earths and advanced technologies. Notable gainers included Foxconn Industrial (+3.1%), Shenzhen Woer (+8.1%), and Wus Printed Circuits (+7.1%). For the week, both the Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes are poised to post gains of over 1%.

周五，澳元兑美元汇率保持在0.657美元左右，徘徊在八个月高点附近，尽管人们普遍预计澳大利亚储备银行将在7月8日的货币政策会议上实施今年第三次降息。在通胀降温和经济前景疲软的情况下，预计央行将再降息25个基点。2025年第一季度通货膨胀率为2.4%，保持在2021年初以来的最低水平，仍在澳大利亚储备银行的2-3%目标范围内。与此同时，第一季度GDP仅增长0.2%，低于2024年第四季度的0.6%。经济学家和市场最初预计澳大利亚储备银行今年将降息三次，但在5月份将预测上调至四次，现在预计将降息五次，这是由于通胀放缓速度快于预期和经济疲软迹象造成的。尽管人们对进一步降息的预期越来越高，但受美元普遍疲软的推动，澳元今年迄今已上涨6%以上。

The Australian dollar held around $0.657 on Friday, hovering near eight-month highs, despite widespread expectations that the RBA will implement its third interest rate cut of the year at its July 8 monetary policy meeting. The central bank is expected to lower rates by another 25 basis points amid cooling inflation and a weakening economic outlook. Inflation stood at 2.4% in Q1 2025, remaining at its lowest level since early 2021 and still within the RBA’s 2–3% target range. Meanwhile, GDP grew just 0.2% in Q1, down from 0.6% in Q4 2024. Economists and markets initially expected three RBA rate cuts this year but raised their forecasts to four in May, and now anticipate up to five, driven by faster-than-expected disinflation and signs of economic weakness. Still, despite growing expectations of deeper rate reductions, the Australian dollar has risen more than 6% year-to-date, buoyed by broad-based weakness in the US dollar.

卡塔尔标准普尔全球采购经理人指数（PMI）从5月份的50.8升至2025年6月的52.0，标志着非能源私营部门自3月份以来增长最快。最新读数与2025年迄今为止的最高水平相匹配，尽管仍略低于52.2的长期调查平均值。产出继续扩大，就业增加，创造就业的速度达到有记录以来的第三高。所有行业都出现了就业增长，其中制造业领涨。未完成业务的进一步增长支撑了人员配置水平的提高，这是自去年10月以来的最大增幅。工资增长也很显著，创下有史以来第二高的增幅，仅次于1月份。在价格方面，销售价格连续第11个月下降，通货紧缩率为去年11月以来最快。展望未来，商业情绪有所缓和，自2017年以来一直低于长期调查平均水平。

Qatar’s S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 52.0 in June 2025, up from 50.8 in May, signaling the fastest growth in the non-energy private sector since March. The latest reading matches the highest level recorded so far in 2025, although it remains slightly below the long-run survey average of 52.2. Output continued to expand, while employment rose, with the pace of job creation reaching the joint-third highest on record. Employment growth was observed across all sectors, led by manufacturing. The rise in staffing levels was supported by a further increase in outstanding business, the sharpest since last October. Wage growth was also notable, recording the second-highest increase on record, just behind January. On the price front, selling prices declined for the eleventh consecutive month, with the rate of deflation the fastest since last November. Looking ahead, business sentiment moderated and remained below the long-run survey average since 2017.