可可期货价格从12月3日触及的每吨8809美元的一周低点上涨至每吨9100美元以上,原因是对供应的担忧再次出现。主要可可种植国科特迪瓦的跨国可可出口商担心,在恶劣天气袭击农作物后,未来几个月农民的供应会下降。国际可可价格经历了历史性的飙升,在12个月内上涨了300%以上,4月份达到每吨近12220美元,这是由于科特迪瓦和加纳的收成不佳,再加上强烈的厄尔尼诺天气事件和多年的投资不足。自那以后,价格有所回落,对当前作物的预期有所改善。与此同时,国际可可协会(ICCO)将其2023/24年全球可可赤字估计从5月份的-46.2万吨上调至-47.8万吨,为60多年来最大。ICCO还将产量预测同比下调13.1%,至438.0万吨,并预计全球库存与研磨比为27.0%,为46年来的最低水平。
Cocoa futures rose past $9,100 per tonne, up from an over one-week low of $8,809 per tonne hit on December 3rd, amid renewed concerns over supply. Multinational cocoa exporters in top grower Ivory Coast fear a drop in supplies from farmers in the coming months after adverse weather hit crops. International cocoa prices have experienced a historic price surge, rising by over 300% in the space of 12 months to hit nearly $12,220 per tonne in April, driven by poor harvests in Ivory Coast and Ghana, exacerbated by powerful El Niño weather events and years of underinvestment. Since then, prices have eased somewhat, with improved expectations for the current crop. Meanwhile, the International Cocoa Association (ICCO) raised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit estimate to -478,000 MT, the largest in over 60 years, from May's -462,000 MT. The ICCO also cut its production forecast by 13.1% year-on-year to 4.380 million MT and projected the global stocks-to-grindings ratio at 27.0%, a 46-year low.