新西兰10年期国债 (NewZealand10Y) 加自选

周二，标准普尔/NZX 50指数上涨超过1%，至12735点，延续了最近的涨幅，收于5月以来的最高水平，健康股和非能源矿产股领涨。投资者继续权衡美国关税政策的全球影响，90天的暂缓令将于下周到期。财政部长Scott Bessent表示，一些国家正在“真诚地进行谈判”，但警告称，如果谈判陷入僵局，关税可能会“回升”至4月2日的水平。与此同时，私人数据显示，中国制造业恢复扩张，鉴于两国密切的贸易关系，缓解了对新西兰出口风险的担忧。在健康股和非能源矿产股中，斐雪派克（+3.8%）、AFT Pharmaceuticals（+2.2%）、Ebos Group（+1.7%）、Fletcher Building（+3.5%）和Santana Minerals（+3.6%）领涨。

The S&P/NZX 50 index rose more than 1% to 12,735 on Tuesday, extending recent gains to close at its highest level since May, led by health stocks and non-energy mineral shares. Investors continued to weigh the global impact of US tariff policies, with the 90-day reprieve set to expire next week. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said some countries are “negotiating in good faith” but warned that tariffs could “snap back” to April 2 levels if talks stall. Meanwhile, private data showed that China’s manufacturing sector returned to expansion, easing concerns over risks to Kiwi exports given the countries’ close trade ties. Among health stocks and non-energy mineral shares, gains were led by Fisher & Paykel (+3.8%), AFT Pharmaceuticals (+2.2%), Ebos Group (+1.7%), Fletcher Building (+3.5%), and Santana Minerals (+3.6%).

周二，新西兰元跌至0.608美元，收复了前一交易日的部分涨幅，并从数月高点小幅回落。投资者将注意力转向贸易不确定性，关注美国关税政策的全球影响，因为90天的关税减免将于下周到期。由于对美国财政前景的担忧，以及在政策制定者的温和信号和持续的政治压力下，对美联储进一步降息的押注越来越多，美元走弱限制了进一步的损失。与此同时，私人数据显示，中国制造业恢复扩张，而官方数据显示工厂活动连续第三个月收缩。鉴于两国密切的贸易关系，这缓解了人们对新西兰出口风险的担忧。在国内，预计储备银行将在7月9日的会议上保持稳定，掉期定价只有23%的可能性下调25个基点至3%。

The New Zealand dollar fell to $0.608 on Tuesday, giving back some of the previous session’s gains and retreating slightly from multi-month highs. Investors turned their focus to trade uncertainty, monitoring the global impact of US tariff policies, as the 90-day tariff reprieve is set to expire next week. Limiting further losses was a weaker US dollar, pressured by concerns over the US fiscal outlook and growing bets on deeper Federal Reserve rate cuts amid dovish signals from policymakers and ongoing political pressure. Meanwhile, private data showed that China’s manufacturing sector returned to expansion, in contrast to official data indicating factory activity contracted for a third straight month. This eased some concerns about risks to New Zealand exports, given the countries’ close trade ties. Domestically, the Reserve Bank is expected to hold steady at its July 9 meeting, with swaps pricing in just a 23% chance of a 25bps cut to 3%.

NZIER调查显示，新西兰商业信心上升，通胀压力缓解。

NZIER survey shows NZ business confidence rising, inflation pressures easing.

新西兰股市周一微涨17点，涨幅0.1%，至12618点，这是新的一个月的第一个交易日，延续了第四个交易日的涨幅。这一增长是在周一华尔街积极领先之后出现的，因为贸易战担忧的缓解和对近期降息的押注增加提振了市场情绪。在当地，商业情绪在5月份触及10个月低点后于6月份反弹。与此同时，新西兰的建筑许可证5月份同比增长10.4%，扭转了4月份14.6%的下降趋势。在新西兰最大的贸易伙伴中国，6月份服务业活动增长最快，而制造业下降有所缓解，因为北京方面继续努力应对贸易相关压力和国内需求疲软。尽管如此，在中国私人制造业PMI数据将于当天晚些时候公布之前，NZX 50的涨幅受到谨慎的限制。工业服务、医疗保健和消费非耐用品领涨，纳皮尔港控股公司上涨。（2.5%）、AFT Pharma（2.2%）和Millenium&Copthorne Hotels（1.8%）。

New Zealand stocks edged up 17 points or 0.1% to 12,618 on Monday, the first trading day of a new month, extending gains for a fourth session. The uptick followed a positive lead from Wall Street Monday as easing trade war fears and rising bets on near-term rate cuts lifted sentiment. Locally, business mood rebounded in June after hitting a ten-month low in May. Meanwhile, New Zealand's building permits rose 10.4% yoy in May, reversing a 14.6% decline in April. In China, New Zealand’s top trading partner, services activity grew the most in three months in June while a drop in manufacturing eased, as Beijing continued efforts to counter trade-related pressures and sluggish domestic demand. Still, gains on the NZX 50 were limited by caution ahead of China’s private manufacturing PMI data due later in the day. Industrial services, healthcare, and consumer non-durables led the rise, amid gains from Napier Port Holdings. (2.5%), AFT Pharma (2.2%), and Millenium & Copthorne Hotels (1.8%).