新西兰10年期国债 (NewZealand10Y) 加自选

周二，新西兰基准标准普尔/NZX 50指数小幅下跌0.1%，至13605点，由于公用事业和运输业的损失抵消了金融业的涨幅，该指数保持在狭窄的区间内。Vector有限公司（-2.6%）、Mainfreight有限公司（-1.2%）、陶朗加港（-12.2%）和纳皮尔港（-1.7%）领跌，超过了西太平洋银行（+3.8%）、澳新银行集团（+1%）和Precinct Properties（+1%）的涨幅。在数据方面，商业通胀预期仍然低迷，在新西兰储备银行1%-3%的目标范围内。大多数受访者预计本月将降息，市场对25？基点降至2.25%，50？在失业率上升和经济放缓的情况下，英国央行下调了基准利率。在其他地方，市场情绪受到美国政府关门结束和美联储可能降息的希望的支撑。

New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index edged down 0.1% to 13,605 on Tuesday, staying within a tight range as losses in utilities and transport offset gains in financials. Declines were led by Vector Limited (-2.6%), Mainfreight Limited (-1.2%), Port of Tauranga (-1.2%), and Napier Port (-1.7%), which outweighed gains in Westpac Banking (+3.8%), ANZ Group (+1%), and Precinct Properties (+1%). On the data front, business inflation expectations remained subdued and within the RBNZ’s 1%–3% target range. Most respondents foresee a rate cut this month, with markets largely pricing a 25?bps reduction to 2.25% and a small chance of a 50?bps cut, amid rising job losses and a slowing economy. Elsewhere, sentiment was supported by hopes of an end to the US government shutdown and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.

新西兰元兑美元汇率在0.564美元左右，接近4月初以来的最低水平，通胀前景疲软增加了进一步货币宽松的预期。商业通胀预期显示，关键政策期限为两年，维持在2.28%不变，而一年期预期小幅上升至2.39%，在新西兰储备银行1%-3%的目标范围内，这表明价格压力预计将在短期内得到控制。调查还显示，大多数受访者预计央行将在本月晚些时候的会议上降息。市场普遍预计将下调25个基点至2.25%，在失业人数不断增加和经济接近第二次衰退的情况下，进一步下调50个基点的可能性很小，这将使新西兰元承受压力，并接近抹去今年对美元的所有涨幅。

The New Zealand dollar traded around $0.564, near its lowest level since early April, as a subdued inflation outlook added to expectations of further monetary easing. Business inflation expectations showed two-year projections, the key policy horizon, unchanged at 2.28%, while one-year expectations edged up slightly to 2.39%, within the RBNZ’s 1%–3% target range, suggesting price pressures are expected to remain contained in the near term. The survey also showed that most respondents expect the central bank to cut rates at its meeting later this month. Markets largely anticipate a 25 bps reduction to 2.25%, with a small 10% chance of a deeper 50 bps cut, amid mounting job losses and the economy nearing a second recession, keeping the New Zealand dollar under pressure and close to erasing all its gains against the US dollar this year.

新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）的季度预期调查显示，企业经理预测2025年第四季度未来两年的通货膨胀率为2.28%，与前三个月持平。与此同时，一年期通胀预期从2.37%微升至2.39%，表明价格压力预计将在短期内得到控制。长期观点喜忧参半，五年期通胀预期从2.26%降至2.22%，而十年期预期从2.15%微升至2.18%。在货币政策方面，受访者现在预计官方现金利率（OCR）到2025年12月底将保持在2.25%，明显低于上一季度预测的3.02%，然后到2026年9月小幅上升至2.31%。这一调整是在新西兰储备银行最近决定于2025年10月8日将OCR下调50个基点至2.50%之后做出的。

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly survey of expectations showed that business managers forecast inflation at 2.28% for the next two years in Q4 2025, unchanged from the previous three-month period. Meanwhile, one-year inflation expectations edged up slightly to 2.39% from 2.37%, suggesting that price pressures are expected to stay contained in the near term. Longer-term views were mixed, with five-year-ahead inflation expectations easing to 2.22% from 2.26%, while ten-year expectations inched higher to 2.18% from 2.15%. In terms of monetary policy, respondents now expect the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to stand at 2.25% by the end of December 2025, notably lower than the 3.02% forecast in the previous quarter, before rising modestly to 2.31% by September 2026. The adjustment follows the RBNZ’s recent decision to cut the OCR by 50 basis points to 2.50% on 8 October 2025.

新西兰储备银行调查显示，将再降息一次，然后延长至2026年。最新的新西兰储备银行预期调查显示，未来一年的平均通胀预期从2.37%微升至2.39%。两年预期保持不变，为2.28%。

RBNZ survey points to one more cut, then extended hold through 2026.The latest RBNZ Survey of Expectations showed the mean one-year-ahead inflation expectation edging up slightly to 2.39% from 2.37%. Two-year expectation stayed unchanged at 2.28%.