澳大利亚2年期国债 (Australia2Y) 加自选

3月份，澳大利亚西太平洋银行领先指数（MoM）从之前的0.06%降至-0.11%。3月份，澳大利亚西太平洋银行领先指数（MoM）从之前的0.06%降至-0.11%

Australia Westpac Leading Index (MoM) dipped from previous 0.06% to -0.11% in March.Australia Westpac Leading Index (MoM) dipped from previous 0.06% to -0.11% in March

澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率升至4.34%左右，在连续两天下跌后反弹，因为美国的一些贸易政策缓解后风险情绪有所改善。在暂时免除某些科技产品的互惠关税后，唐纳德·特朗普总统现在正在研究对现有汽车关税的可能豁免。在货币政策方面，澳大利亚储备银行4月份政策会议的纪要突显了下一次利率调整时间的不确定性。虽然董事会指出，5月份的会议将是重新评估政策的合适时机，但它强调，没有预先确定任何决定。尽管如此，市场仍完全消化了5月份降息25个基点的预期，一些人认为降息0.5个基点的可能性约为30%。投资者现在等待周四发布的3月份就业报告，以评估劳动力市场的健康状况及其对澳大利亚储备银行下一步政策措施的潜在影响。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 4.34%, rebounding after two consecutive days of declines, as risk sentiment improved after some U.S. trade policy relief. President Donald Trump is now looking into possible exemptions on existing auto tariffs, after temporarily exempting certain tech products from reciprocal tariffs. On the monetary policy front, minutes from Reserve Bank of Australia's April policy meeting highlighted uncertainty around the timing of the next interest rate adjustment. While the board noted that the May meeting would be an appropriate time to reassess policy, it emphasized that no decision had been predetermined. Still, markets remain fully priced for a 25bps rate cut in May, with some assigning around a 30% probability of a half point move. Investors now await the release of the March jobs report on Thursday to assess the health of the labor market and its potential influence on the RBA’s next policy steps.

周三，澳元保持在0.63美元上方，有望连续第六个交易日上涨，因为中国强劲的经济数据支撑了风险情绪。由于中国仍然是澳大利亚最大的贸易伙伴和大宗商品的主要买家，尽管地缘政治存在不确定性，但乐观的中国指标帮助支撑了澳元。然而，由于美国总统唐纳德·特朗普下令对所有关键矿产进口可能征收的新关税进行调查，贸易紧张局势再次加剧，这加剧了人们对美中贸易冲突加剧的担忧。在国内方面，交易员等待周四的就业数据，以进一步了解劳动力市场的实力以及对澳大利亚储备银行政策方向的潜在影响。

The Australian dollar held above $0.63 on Wednesday, eyeing a sixth consecutive session of gains as strong economic data out of China lent support to risk sentiment. As China remains Australia’s largest trading partner and a key buyer of its commodities, upbeat Chinese indicators helped buoy the currency despite a cloud of geopolitical uncertainty. However, momentum was tempered by renewed trade tensions as U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a probe into possible new tariffs on all critical mineral imports—many of which the U.S. sources from China—adding to fears of a deepening U.S.-China trade conflict. On the domestic front, traders awaited Thursday’s employment data for further clues on labor market strength and potential implications for Reserve Bank of Australia policy direction.

澳大利亚西太平洋银行领先指数下跌，关税冲击开始产生影响。3月份，澳大利亚西太平洋银行领先指数从0.9%跌至0.6%。西太平洋银行指出，该指数才刚刚开始反映美国总统唐纳德·特朗普4月2日宣布的互惠关税所造成的不断升级的干扰。

Australia Westpac leading index falls as tariff shock starting to weigh.Australia's Westpac Leading Index slipped from 0.9% to 0.6% in March. Westpac noted that the index has only just begun to reflect the escalating disruptions caused by US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement on April 2.