南非3年期国债 (SouthAfrica3Y) 加自选

标准普尔南非全球采购经理人指数从5月份的50.8降至2025年6月的50.1，表明在产出和新订单再次下降的情况下，私营部门活动增长疲软，几乎处于中性状态。出口需求连续第三个月减弱，导致新业务下滑。产出水平三个月来首次出现收缩，只有服务业表现出弹性。在价格方面，由于购买价格上涨和工资通胀加速，尤其是批发和零售业，投入成本上涨速度加快。尽管如此，销售价格通胀仍然温和，因为公司试图保持竞争力，并利用兰特走强来降低一些价格。展望未来，由于对国内和全球政策的担忧加剧，商业信心降至2021年7月以来的最低水平。尽管如此，公司在三个月内第二次增加了人员编制，创造就业机会的速度是自2024年5月以来最快的。

The S&P Global South Africa PMI fell to 50.1 in June 2025 from 50.8 in May, indicating softer growth and nearly neutral conditions in private sector activity amid renewed declines in output and new orders. Export demand weakened for the third straight month, contributing to the downturn in new business. Output levels contracted for the first time in three months, with only the services sector showing resilience. On the price front, input costs rose at a quicker pace, driven by higher purchase prices and accelerating wage inflation, especially in wholesale and retail. Still, selling price inflation remained modest, as firms sought to stay competitive and took advantage of a stronger rand to cut some prices. Looking ahead, business confidence fell to its lowest level since July 2021, amid rising concerns over domestic and global policy. Nevertheless, firms increased staffing for the second time in three months, with the pace of job creation the fastest since May 2024.

南非兰特兑美元汇率约为17.6，上一次出现在2024年11月，得益于美元疲软和贵金属价格上涨，尤其是黄金。由于总统西里尔·拉马福萨与其主要联盟伙伴民主联盟（DA）之间的紧张局势有所缓和，货币也上涨。拉马福萨于6月26日因未经授权的旅行而解雇安德鲁·惠特菲尔德为副贸易部长，这引起了地方检察官的严厉批评，地方检察官要求拉马福沙在48小时内解雇三名被指控腐败的非国大部长，否则“将面临后果”。地方检察官最终留任，但计划反对一些预算并抵制全国对话。与此同时，南非储备银行行长Lesetja Kganyago再次呼吁降低通胀目标，警告目前的区间会削弱兰特并加剧通胀。在贸易方面，4月份宣布的10%至50%的关税将在暂停90天后于下周恢复，除非达成双边协议。

The South African rand traded around 17.6 per USD, a level last seen in November 2024, benefiting from the dollar weakness and the rise in prices of precious metals, particularly gold. The currency also gained on signs of easing tensions between President Cyril Ramaphosa and his main coalition partner, the Democratic Alliance (DA). Ramaphosa’s June 26 dismissal of Andrew Whitfield as deputy trade minister over unauthorized travel drew sharp criticism from the DA, which demanded that Ramaphosa fire three ANC ministers accused of corruption within 48 hours or “face consequences.” The DA ultimately stayed but plans to oppose some budgets and boycott a national dialogue. Meanwhile, South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago renewed his call for a lower inflation target, warning the current range weakens the rand and fuels inflation. On the trade front, tariffs of 10% to 50% announced in April are set to resume next week after a 90-day pause, unless bilateral deals are reached.

JSE指数上涨约0.6%，突破97000大关，创下历史新高，并连续第二个交易日上涨。资源类股领涨，黄金等贵金属价格上涨以及金融股走强支撑。南非联合政府在经济改革方面取得的一些进展，特别是改善基础设施的努力，也提振了市场情绪。与此同时，通胀疲软为央行考虑进一步放松货币政策提供了空间。然而，挥之不去的财政不确定性和对联盟稳定性的担忧继续让投资者感到担忧，而外部风险也在增加，特别是在与美国这个重要的贸易和投资伙伴的关系中。

The JSE index rose around 0.6% to surpass the 97,000 mark to hit a new all-time high and extend gains for a second consecutive session. The rally was led by resource-linked stocks, supported by rising precious metal prices such as gold, along with strength in financials. Sentiment has also been lifted by some progress in economic reforms under South Africa’s coalition government, particularly efforts to improve infrastructure. Meanwhile, subdued inflation is giving the central bank room to consider further monetary easing. However, lingering fiscal uncertainty and concerns over coalition stability continue to worry investors, while external risks build—particularly in relations with the United States, a vital trade and investment partner.

南非经季节性调整的Absa采购经理人指数（PMI）从5月份的43.1升至2025年6月的48.5，为今年第二高。尽管该指数连续第八个月保持在50点以下，这表明经济正在持续收缩，但它表明制造业的势头正在改善。这一增长主要是由于新销售订单下降幅度较小（上升7.8点至46.1），这得益于需求走强和成本压力缓解。然而，工厂产出仍然疲软，由于持续的结构性和物流挑战，商业活动分项指数下跌1.6点至41.9。

South Africa’s seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 48.5 in June 2025 from 43.1 in May, marking its second-highest reading of the year. Although the index remained below the 50-point threshold for the eighth consecutive month—signaling ongoing contraction—it pointed to improving momentum in the manufacturing sector. The uptick was largely driven by a smaller decrease in new sales orders (up 7.8 points to 46.1), supported by firmer demand and easing cost pressures. However, factory output remained weak, with the business activity sub-index falling 1.6 points to 41.9 amid persistent structural and logistical challenges.