南非3个月期国债 (SouthAfrica3M) 加自选

标准普尔南非全球采购经理人指数从3月份的48.3升至2025年4月的50.0，表明在经历了四个月的收缩后趋于稳定。产出、新订单和就业的温和反弹推动了这一改善，一些公司表示需求和营销成功增强。服务业引领增长，而工业则因产量下降而滞后。值得注意的是，供应商交货时间自2023年年中以来首次改善，这得益于德班港口拥堵的减少。随着企业对缓解供应问题的反应，采购活动也有所增加，尽管库存略有下降。在价格方面，受兰特疲软和进口价格上涨的推动，投入成本通胀急剧加速至八个月来的最高点，促使企业在暂停一个月后提高售价。展望未来，由于持续的政治和经济不确定性，商业预期减弱，达到19个月来的第二低水平。尽管如此，仍有40%的公司对未来的产量持乐观态度。

The S&P Global South Africa PMI rose to 50.0 in April 2025 from 48.3 in March, signaling stabilization after four months of contraction. Modest rebounds in output, new orders, and employment drove the improvement, with some firms citing stronger demand and marketing success. Services led growth, while industry lagged with a decline in production. Notably, supplier delivery times improved for the first time since mid-2023, aided by reduced congestion at Durban's port. Purchasing activity also rose as firms responded to easing supply issues, though inventories dipped slightly. On prices, input cost inflation accelerated sharply to an eight-month high, driven by rand weakness and higher import prices, prompting firms to raise selling prices after a one-month reprieve. Looking ahead, business expectations weakened, reaching the second-lowest level in 19 months, amid continued political and economic uncertainty. Nonetheless, 40% of firms remained optimistic about future output.

南非10年期政府债券收益率升至近11%，为4月22日以来的最高水平，政治紧张局势和财政不确定性动摇了投资者信心。非洲人国民大会是民族团结政府（GNU）中最大的政党，其内部的分歧再次出现，一些派别推动用较小的政党取代民主军，以确保议会多数席位。争议的焦点是拟议的0.5%增值税上调，国家财政部在一项旨在防止GNU崩溃的重大让步中撤回了该提议。此次上调原定于5月1日生效，但在DA提出法律质疑后，也被法院阻止。财政部长Enoch Godongwana现在将于5月21日提交第三版国家预算。

South Africa’s 10-year government bond yield rose to nearly 11%, its highest since April 22, as political tensions and fiscal uncertainty rattled investor confidence. Divisions within the ANC—the largest party in the Government of National Unity (GNU)—have resurfaced, with some factions pushing to replace the DA with smaller parties to secure a parliamentary majority. The dispute centers on a proposed 0.5% VAT increase, which the National Treasury withdrew in a major concession aimed at preventing the collapse of the GNU. The hike, set to take effect on May 1, was also blocked by a court following a legal challenge from the DA. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is now set to present a third version of the national budget on May 21.

南非兰特兑美元汇率约为18.3，为3月下旬以来的最高点，这得益于金价飙升，交易员正在等待美中贸易谈判和美联储政策结果的更多细节。电力公司Eskom保证冬季电力供应稳定，进一步提振了当地情绪。能源部长Kgosientsho Ramokgopa在兆瓦公园发表讲话时表示，最近的改革已将公用事业的重点从结束甩负荷转向确保长期能源安全。该公用事业公司在暂停10个月后，于今年早些时候恢复了轮流停电。与此同时，对民族团结政府（GNU）稳定性的担忧浮出水面，因为《星期日泰晤士报》报道称，近三分之二的ANC议员正在推动罢免DA。南非联合政府内部的紧张局势一直在升级，这是由一系列有争议的法案和决定引发的，预算是争议的核心。

The South African rand traded around 18.3 per USD, its highest since late March, helped by a surge in gold prices with traders awaiting more details on US-China trade negotiations and the Fed's policy outcome. Local sentiment was further buoyed by assurances from power utility Eskom of a stable winter power supply. Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, speaking at Megawatt Park, said recent reforms have shifted the utility's focus from ending load shedding to ensuring long-term energy security. The utility had resumed rolling blackouts earlier this year after a 10-month pause. Meanwhile, concerns about the stability of the Government of National Unity (GNU) surfaced as The Sunday Times reported that almost two-thirds of ANC MPs are pushing for the DA’s removal. Tensions within the South African coalition government have been escalating, sparked by a series of controversial bills and decisions, with the budget at the heart of the dispute.

南非经季节性调整的Absa采购经理人指数（PMI）从3月份的48.7降至2025年4月的44.7，表明该国工厂活动连续第六个月收缩，整体大幅收缩。调查对象表示，全球贸易紧张局势、国内政治不确定性、降雨过多以及计划停电的恢复是负面情绪的主要驱动因素。Absa表示：“由于增值税事件和政府内部公开的分歧，全球关税的发展和当地政治的不确定性可能会影响市场情绪。”。

The seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for South Africa dropped to 44.7 in April 2025 from 48.7 in March, indicating the sixth consecutive month of contraction in the country's factory activity and sharp overall. Survey respondents cited global trade tensions, domestic political uncertainty, excessive rainfall, and the return of scheduled power cuts as key drivers of negative sentiment. "Global tariff developments and local political uncertainty because of the VAT saga and open disagreements within the government likely weighed on sentiment," Absa said.