南非3个月期国债 (SouthAfrica3M) 加自选

2025年2月，南非黄金产量同比下降7.6%，扭转了上个月1%的增长。这一下降对采矿总产量的总体同比变化贡献了负1个百分点。经季节性调整后，2月份黄金产量也下降了2.4%。

Gold production in South Africa dropped by 7.6% year-on-year in February 2025,reversing a 1% increase recorded in the previous month. The drop contributed a negative 1 percentage point to the overall year-on-year change in total mining output. On a seasonally adjusted basis, gold production also fell by 2.4% in February.

2025年2月，南非的采矿产量比一年前暴跌9.6%，此前一个月修正后下降了1.5%，从而将该行业的衰退延长到第四个月。这是自2022年11月以来的最大跌幅，主要原因是PGM（-23.9%）、铁矿石（-10.5%）、黄金（-7.6%）和煤炭（-4.3%）。经季节性调整的月度数据显示，采矿产量下降4.4%，此前一个月修正后持平。与前三个月相比，截至2025年2月的三个月经季节性调整的采矿产量下降了6.7%。

Mining production in South Africa plummeted by 9.6% over a year ago in February 2025, following a a revised 1.5% drop in the prior month, thus extending the sector's downturn into a fourth month. This was the steepest decline since November 2022, largely on account of PGMs (-23.9%), iron ore (-10.5%), gold (-7.6%) and coal (-4.3%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, mining output slipped by 4.4%, following a revised flat reading in the prior month. Seasonally adjusted mining production shrank by 6.7% in the three months ended February 2025 compared with the previous three months.

南非10年期政府债券收益率高于11.2%，为2023年5月以来的最高水平，反映出在持续的政治不确定性下风险溢价不断上升。非国大和亲商民主联盟（DA）就拟议的增值税上调陷入僵局，加剧了投资者的焦虑，这给脆弱的民族团结政府（GNU）带来了压力。尽管财政框架在4月初勉强通过了国民议会，但长期僵局的威胁仍然存在。财政部长Enoch Godongwana证实，增值税的增加仍然是预算的一部分，税率将在2025年5月升至15.5%，在2026年4月升至16%，预计将从最初的上调中产生135亿兰特。然而，最近的报道表明，增值税提案可能会被取消，因为非国大在过去一周咨询的所有政党，包括其最大的联盟伙伴亲商DA，都没有表示支持该措施。

South Africa's 10-year government bond yield was above 11.2%, its highest level since May 2023, reflecting mounting risk premiums amid ongoing political uncertainty. Investor anxiety has been fueled by a standoff between the ANC and the pro-business Democratic Alliance (DA) over a proposed VAT hike, which has strained the fragile Government of National Unity (GNU). Although the fiscal framework narrowly passed through the National Assembly at the start of April, the threat of prolonged gridlock remains. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana confirmed that the VAT increase is still part of the budget, with rates set to rise to 15.5% in May 2025 and 16% in April 2026, expected to generate R13.5 billion from the initial hike. However, recent reports indicate the VAT proposal may be scrapped, as none of the parties the ANC consulted over the past week — including its largest coalition partner, the pro-business DA — expressed support for the measure.

南非兰特继续升值，兑美元汇率达到18.9左右，为4月初以来的最高点，主要得益于美元持续疲软和国内政治发展。周六，非国大与亲商民主联盟举行了会谈，以解决该国的财政僵局。然而，DA坚决拒绝了增值税上调0.5个百分点的提议，这是正在进行的预算谈判中的一个关键症结。在民族团结政府（GNU）联盟伙伴施加的压力越来越大的情况下，据报道，非国大正在放弃增值税的增加。尽管存在分歧，ANC在ActionSA和Bosa等较小的GNU成员的支持下，设法在议会中通过了国家预算，而DA和Freedom Front Plus则反对。

The South African rand continued to appreciate to trade around 18.9 per USD, its highest since early April, mainly benefiting from the ongoing weakness of the dollar and political developments at home. On Saturday, the ANC held talks with the pro-business Democratic Alliance (DA) in an effort to resolve the country’s fiscal standoff. However, the DA stood firm in rejecting a proposed 0.5 percentage point VAT hike, a key sticking point in the ongoing budget negotiations. Amid mounting pressure from its coalition partners in the Government of National Unity (GNU), the ANC is reportedly backing away from the VAT increase. Despite the divide, the ANC managed to pass the national budget in the Assembly with support from smaller GNU members like ActionSA and Bosa, while the DA and Freedom Front Plus opposed it.