哥伦比亚央行在3月份将基准利率保持在9.5%，四名董事支持这一决定，三名董事赞成降息50个基点。在连续三个月稳定在5.2%之后，2月份的年通货膨胀率小幅上升至5.3%，核心通货膨胀率降至4.21%，这是由于食品加工和监管价格下降，尽管服务成本仍高达7%。第四季度GDP增长2.4%，1月份的ISE显示年变化率为2.5%，技术团队将2025年的增长预测从2.6%提高到2.8%。然而，全球金融形势趋紧、美元走强和哥伦比亚财政不确定性导致的汇率波动增加了通胀风险，限制了大幅降息的空间。劳动力市场继续表现强劲，就业率上升，失业率下降。央行强调，未来的利率决定将取决于即将公布的经济数据。
The Central Bank of Colombia kept its benchmark rate at 9.5% in March, with four directors supporting the decision and three favoring a 50bps cut. Annual inflation, after remaining stable at 5.2% for three months, increased slightly to 5.3% in February, with core inflation easing to 4.21%, driven by lower food processing and regulated prices, though service costs remained elevated at 7%. GDP expanded by 2.4% in Q4, and the ISE for January showed an annual change of 2.5%, with the technical team raising its growth forecast for 2025 from 2.6% to 2.8%. However, exchange rate volatility, stemming from tighter global financial conditions, a stronger dollar, and Colombia’s fiscal uncertainty, has raised inflationary risks, limiting room for aggressive rate cuts. The labor market continued to show strong records with rising employment and falling unemployment. The central bank emphasized that future rate decisions will depend on incoming economic data.
