哥伦比亚10年期国债 (Colombia10Y) 加自选

2025年5月，哥伦比亚工业生产同比增长3%，从4月份3.3%的下降中反弹，标志着自2024年4月以来最强劲的产出增长，高于市场预期的1.4%的增长。增长主要受其他食品生产（+19.5%）的推动，其次是其他化工产品（+13.2%）和服装（+12.7%）。其他类型的运输设备制造业激增30.5%。相比之下，基础钢铁行业（-16.6%）、金属制品行业（-8.9%）以及炼焦、炼油和燃料混合行业（-8.8%）的跌幅最大。机动车辆和拖车的车身制造量急剧下降了26.3%。在39个工业活动中，25个实际生产出现了积极变化，而14个子行业出现了下降。

Industrial production in Colombia rose 3% year-on-year in May 2025, rebounding from a 3.3% decline in April and marking the strongest output growth since April 2024, above market expetations of a 1.4% increase. The expansion was mainly driven by the production of other food products (+19.5%), followed by other chemical products (+13.2%) and clothing (+12.7%). The manufacturing of other types of transport equipment surged 30.5%. In contrast, the basic iron and steel industries (-16.6%), fabricated metal products (-8.9%), and coking, petroleum refining, and fuel blending (-8.9%) saw the steepest declines. The manufacture of car bodies for motor vehicles and trailers dropped sharply by 26.3%. Out of 39 industrial activities, 25 posted positive changes in real production, while 14 subsectors recorded declines.

2025年5月，哥伦比亚的零售额同比激增13.2%，延续了4月份11.4%的增长，标志着连续第12个月的增长。这标志着自2022年6月以来零售额的最强劲增长，超过了市场预期的12.4%的涨幅。所有类别的销售额都有所增长，特别是个人或家用电信设备（56.5%对53.7%）；主要用于家用的车辆（29.8%对25.6%）；家用电器和家具（23.3%对19.1%）；书籍、文具、报纸、杂志和学习用品（13.7%对-0.2%）。经季节性调整的月度数据显示，5月份零售额增长0.8%，而前一个月增长0.5%。

Retail sales in Colombia surged by 13.2% year-on-year in May 2025, extending a 11.4% rise in April and marking the 12th consecutive month of increases. This marked the strongest growth in retail sales since June 2022, coming above market estimates of a 12.4% advance. Sales increased across all categories, notably telecommunications equipment for personal or domestic use (56.5% vs 53.7%); vehicles mainly for household use (29.8% vs 25.6%); home appliances and furniture (23.3% vs 19.1%); and books, stationery, newspapers, magazines, and school supplies (13.7% vs -0.2%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, retail sales rose by 0.8% in May after a 0.5% increase in the prior month.

哥伦比亚的年通货膨胀率从5月份的5.05%降至2025年6月的4.82%，低于市场预期的4.9%，为2021年10月以来的最低水平。减速反映了控制价格压力的持续进展，食品（+4.31%对+4.71%）、健康（+5.20%对+5.34%）和住房（+5.23%对+5.82%）等关键类别的价格明显放缓。然而，交通（+5.27%对+5.26%）、餐馆和酒店（+7.44%对+7.41%）以及教育（+7.56%对+7.35%）的增幅不大。数据显示，尽管通货膨胀正在缓解，但服务相关行业的压力仍然很大。按月计算，6月份消费者价格指数仅上涨0.1%，低于0.19%的预测，比5月份0.32%的涨幅有所放缓。最新数据支持了哥伦比亚央行在通缩趋势持续的情况下继续放松货币政策的预期。

Colombia’s annual inflation rate eased to 4.82% in June 2025, down from 5.05% in May and below market expectations of 4.9%, marking the lowest level since October 2021. The deceleration reflects continued progress in controlling price pressures, with notable slowdowns in key categories such as food (+4.31% vs. +4.71%), health (+5.20% vs. +5.34%), and housing (+5.23% vs. +5.82%). However, modest increases were seen in transportation (+5.27% vs. +5.26%), restaurants and hotels (+7.44% vs. +7.41%), and education (+7.56% vs. +7.35%). The data suggest that while inflation is easing, pressures remain elevated in service-related sectors. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose just 0.1% in June, below the 0.19% forecast and slowing from May’s 0.32% increase. The latest figures support expectations for continued monetary policy easing by Colombia’s central bank if the disinflation trend persists.

哥伦比亚的生产者价格通胀率从上个月的3.67%降至2025年6月的2.09%，创下自去年10月以来的最低通胀率。采矿和采石业的通货紧缩有所放缓（5月份为-9.44%对-9.93%），农业、畜牧业、林业、狩猎和渔业的通货膨胀有所缓解（3.73%对7.97%），工业部门价格也有所缓解（4.35%对5.48%）。按月计算，生产者价格指数下跌0.28%，减缓了5月份1.15%的跌幅。

Producer price inflation in Colombia eased to 2.09% in June 2025, from 3.67% in the previous month, recording the softest pace of inflation since October last year. Deflation slowed in the mining and quarrying sector (-9.44% vs. -9.93% in May), and inflation eased in agriculture, livestock, forestry, hunting and fishing (3.73% vs. 7.97%), as well as in industrial sector prices (4.35% vs. 5.48%). On a monthly basis, producer prices fell by 0.28%, slowing the 1.15% drop in May.