哥伦比亚10年期国债 (Colombia10Y) 加自选

哥伦比亚的出口在上个月增长4.3%后，在2025年2月同比下降0.8%，至37.80亿美元。与上一年相比，这标志着出口表现下降，主要是由于燃料和采掘业出口下降了17.5%，这超过了其他行业的增长。农产品、食品和饮料的出货量激增18.7%，其中未烘焙的无咖啡因或无咖啡因咖啡增长70.1%，咖啡提取物和浓缩物增长49.1%，制成品出口增长2.4%。美国仍然是最大的出口目的地，占总出货量的27.0%，其次是巴拿马（5.9%）和厄瓜多尔（4.5%）。

Colombia's exports fell by 0.8% year-on-year to USD 3.780 billion in February 2025, following a 4.3% increase in the prior month. This marked a decline in export performance compared to the previous year, largely due to the 17.5% drop in exports of fuel and extractive industries, which outweighed gains elsewhere. Shipments of agricultural products, food, and beverages surged by 18.7%—with unroasted decaffeinated or non-decaffeinated coffee up 70.1% and coffee extracts and concentrates up 49.1%—and exports of manufactured products rose by 2.4%. The United States remained the top export destination, accounting for 27.0% of total shipments, followed by Panama (5.9%) and Ecuador (4.5%).

Davivienda哥伦比亚制造业采购经理人指数从2月份的49升至2025年3月的49.4，但仍处于负值区域，表明制造业连续第二次收缩。在需求疲软的情况下，新订单和产出都继续下降，但收缩率较2月份有所放缓。与此同时，预算限制削弱了购买水平，并引发了自去年10月以来的首次就业收缩。在价格方面，3月份整体成本负担进一步增加。通货膨胀率升至两年高点，但仍低于长期平均水平。因此，产出费用通胀率加快至 尽管该指数创下五个月新高，但仍低于14年的调查平均水平。展望未来，企业对未来12个月的产量增长充满信心。

The Davivienda Colombia Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4 in March 2025, from 49 in February, though remaining in negative territory and indicating a second straight contraction in the manufacturing sector. Both new orders and output continued to decrease, amid subdued demand, but the rates of contraction softened from those seen in February. Meanwhile, budget constraints dented buying levels and prompted the first contraction in employment since last October. On the price front, overall cost burdens increased further in March. The rate of inflation strengthened to a two-year high, though remained below its long-run average. Accordingly, the rate of output charge inflation quickened to a five-month high, but the respective index remained below its 14-year survey average. Looking ahead, firms were strongly confident of a rise in output in the coming 12 months.

哥伦比亚央行在3月份将基准利率保持在9.5%，四名董事支持这一决定，三名董事赞成降息50个基点。在连续三个月稳定在5.2%之后，2月份的年通货膨胀率小幅上升至5.3%，核心通货膨胀率降至4.21%，这是由于食品加工和监管价格下降，尽管服务成本仍高达7%。第四季度GDP增长2.4%，1月份的ISE显示年变化率为2.5%，技术团队将2025年的增长预测从2.6%提高到2.8%。然而，全球金融形势趋紧、美元走强和哥伦比亚财政不确定性导致的汇率波动增加了通胀风险，限制了大幅降息的空间。劳动力市场继续表现强劲，就业率上升，失业率下降。央行强调，未来的利率决定将取决于即将公布的经济数据。

The Central Bank of Colombia kept its benchmark rate at 9.5% in March, with four directors supporting the decision and three favoring a 50bps cut. Annual inflation, after remaining stable at 5.2% for three months, increased slightly to 5.3% in February, with core inflation easing to 4.21%, driven by lower food processing and regulated prices, though service costs remained elevated at 7%. GDP expanded by 2.4% in Q4, and the ISE for January showed an annual change of 2.5%, with the technical team raising its growth forecast for 2025 from 2.6% to 2.8%. However, exchange rate volatility, stemming from tighter global financial conditions, a stronger dollar, and Colombia’s fiscal uncertainty, has raised inflationary risks, limiting room for aggressive rate cuts. The labor market continued to show strong records with rising employment and falling unemployment. The central bank emphasized that future rate decisions will depend on incoming economic data.

哥伦比亚通货膨胀在3月份有所缓解，在2025年和2026年有所上升。路透社周一的一项民意调查显示，哥伦比亚的通货膨胀可能在3月份有所缓解，此前由于最低工资和天然气关税补贴的提高，今年前两个月通货膨胀有所增加。

Colombia inflation seen easing in March, rising in 2025 and 2026.Inflation in Colombia likely eased in March, after increasing in the first two months of the year due to higher minimum wages and gas tariffs subsidies, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.