美国3个月期国债 (US3M) 加自选

周四股市普遍下跌，标准普尔500指数连续第五个交易日下跌，投资者将注意力转向美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔即将在杰克逊霍尔发表的演讲。道琼斯指数下跌约125点，而纳斯达克指数因大型科技股持续疲软而下跌0.4%。沃尔玛股价下跌超过4%，尽管上调了全年销售额和利润前景，但自2022年以来首次低于预期，这给市场带来了压力。令人失望的结果，加上其他主要零售商的谨慎信号，突显了消费者在关税上调和支出趋势喜忧参半的情况下的不确定性。与此同时，首次申请失业救济人数高于预期，而标准普尔全球综合采购经理人指数显示，商业活动加速至三年来最快水平，反映出经济形势喜忧参半。交易员们现在正在等待鲍威尔周五的讲话，以明确9月份是否可能降息，期货市场定价的可能性为73%。

Stocks fell broadly on Thursday, with the S&P 500 sliding for a fifth straight session as investors turned their focus to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at Jackson Hole. The Dow Jones dropped about 125 points, while the Nasdaq lost 0.4% amid ongoing weakness in big tech. Walmart weighed on markets after its shares slipped over 4% despite raising its full-year sales and profit outlook, as its quarterly earnings missed expectations for the first time since 2022. The disappointing results, combined with cautious signals from other major retailers, underscored consumer uncertainty amid higher tariffs and mixed spending trends. Meanwhile, jobless claims came in hotter than expected, while S&P Global’s composite PMI showed business activity accelerating to its strongest pace in three years, reflecting a mixed economic picture. Traders are now awaiting Powell’s remarks on Friday for clarity on whether a rate cut is likely in September, with futures markets pricing in a 73% chance.

美元预测：随着鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的演讲引起关注，DXY上涨。美元指数公司高于50天SMA，看涨者瞄准99.320。交易员们等待鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的演讲，以评估美联储的利率前景。

US Dollar Forecast: DXY Gains as Powell Speech at Jackson Hole Draws Focus.Dollar Index firms above 50-day SMA, with bulls targeting 99.320. Traders await Powell's Jackson Hole speech to gauge Fed rate outlook.

截至8月21日，房地美支持的30年期固定抵押贷款的平均利率与上周相比保持稳定，为6.58%，为10月以来的最低水平。房地美首席经济学家Sam Khater表示：“本周30年期固定利率抵押贷款保持平稳。今年夏天，利率有所下降，购房申请数量超过2024年，尽管许多购房者继续在场外等待利率进一步下降。”。

The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage backed by Freddie Mac held steady from the previous week at 6.58% as of August 21st, their lowest level since October. “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remained flat this week. Over the summer, rates have come down and purchase applications are outpacing 2024, though a number of homebuyers continue waiting on the sideline for rates to further decrease,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

美国司法部：呼吁美联储主席鲍威尔罢免美联储州长库克。当然，这些指控是指控。库克尚未受到正式指控。

DOJ: Calls on Fed chair Powell to remove Fed Gov. Cook.Of course, the allegations are allegations. Cook has not been officially charged.