美国3个月期国债 (US3M) 加自选

美元在月底下跌，但现在真正的考验开始了。美元昨日再次下跌，但在月底和季度末的潜在资金流动中，很难感觉到。现在我们已经解决了这个问题，真正的焦点可以开始了。

Dollar beaten down at month-end but now the real test begins.The dollar was once again beaten down yesterday but it's a tough one to feel out amid potential month-end and quarter-end flows. Now that we've gotten that out of the way, the real focus can begin.

周二，美国10年期国债收益率降至4.22%左右，为两个月来的最低水平，因对美国财政前景和贸易相关不确定性的担忧加剧，市场情绪受到压力。市场正密切关注参议院在首选的7月4日最后期限之前通过特朗普总统全面减税和支出法案的努力。该计划预计将增加3.3万亿美元的国债，对长期财政可持续性发出警报。与此同时，投资者正在等待与美国主要合作伙伴的贸易谈判进展，因为特朗普对广泛互惠关税的90天缓刑将于下周到期。收益率的进一步下行压力来自对美联储进一步降息的押注，这是由政策制定者的温和信号和特朗普放松货币政策的持续压力推动的。展望未来，人们的注意力转向周四的月度就业报告，预计该报告将为美国劳动力市场的健康状况提供新的见解。

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note dropped to around 4.22% on Tuesday, its lowest level in two months, as mounting concerns over the US fiscal outlook and trade-related uncertainties pressured sentiment. Markets are closely watching the Senate’s efforts to pass President Trump’s sweeping tax-cut and spending bill ahead of the preferred July 4 deadline. The package is projected to add $3.3 trillion to the national debt, raising alarm over long-term fiscal sustainability. At the same time, investors are awaiting developments on trade negotiations with key US partners, as Trump’s 90-day reprieve on broad reciprocal tariffs is set to expire next week. Further downward pressure on yields came from bets on deeper Federal Reserve rate cuts, driven by dovish signals from policymakers and continued pressure from Trump to ease monetary policy. Looking ahead, attention turns to Thursday’s monthly jobs report, which is expected to offer fresh insight into the health of the US labor market.

周二，美元指数跌至96.7左右，为2022年2月以来的最低水平，对美国财政前景和贸易不确定性的担忧日益加剧，打压了市场情绪。市场正密切关注参议院在特朗普总统全面减税和支出计划方面的进展，该计划预计将增加3.3万亿美元的国债。与此同时，投资者正在等待美国与主要伙伴之间贸易谈判的进展，特朗普对广泛互惠关税的90天暂缓将于下周到期。在政策制定者发出温和信号和特朗普持续施压降低借贷成本的情况下，交易员加大了对美联储进一步降息的押注，这进一步增加了美元的压力。美元兑欧元跌至近四年低点，兑英镑跌至三年半低点。现在，人们的注意力转向周四的月度就业报告，以寻找美国劳动力市场强劲的新信号。

The US dollar index fell to around 96.7 on Tuesday, its lowest level since February 2022, as growing concerns over the US fiscal outlook and trade uncertainty weighed on sentiment. Markets are closely watching the Senate’s progress on President Trump’s sweeping tax-cut and spending package, which is expected to add $3.3 trillion to the national debt. At the same time, investors are awaiting developments on trade negotiations between the US and key partners, with Trump’s 90-day reprieve on broad reciprocal tariffs set to expire next week. Adding further pressure on the greenback, traders increased bets on deeper Federal Reserve rate cuts amid dovish signals from policymakers and ongoing pressure from Trump to reduce borrowing costs. The dollar dropped to a nearly four-year low against the euro and a three-and-a-half-year low against the British pound. Attention now turns to Thursday’s monthly jobs report for new signals on the strength of the US labor market.

特朗普的税单和关税造成压力，美元疲软。周二，美元兑欧元汇率跌至2021年9月以来的最低点，唐纳德·特朗普总统的支出法案引发了财政担忧，贸易协议的不确定性继续打压市场情绪。

Dollar feeble as Trump's tax bill and tariffs weigh.The U.S. dollar languished at its weakest against the euro since September 2021 on Tuesday, as President Donald Trump's spending bill stoked fiscal worries and uncertainty around trade deals continued to weigh on sentiment.