美国3个月期国债 (US3M) 加自选

美国股市周三收跌，投资者在英伟达公布业绩之前权衡了收益、美联储会议纪要和贸易紧张局势。标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数均下跌0.5%，道琼斯指数下跌224点。英伟达股价在盈利前上涨1%，被视为对人工智能驱动的市场乐观情绪的关键考验。美联储会议记录反映了谨慎的立场，警告在经济不确定性中“艰难的权衡”。在特朗普政府要求美国公司停止向中国销售一些半导体软件，向Cadence和Synopsys施压后，贸易担忧再次浮出水面。由于疲软的指导，Okta下跌了13%以上，而Abercrombie&Fitch在强劲的报告后上涨了16%，Dick's上涨了2%。随着Nvidia的发布迫在眉睫，投资者希望这家人工智能领导者能够恢复市场势头，或者根据与需求和中国风险相关的信号增加波动性。

US stocks closed lower Wednesday as investors weighed earnings, Fed minutes, and trade tensions ahead of Nvidia’s results. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq lost 0.5% each, and the Dow dropped 224 points. Nvidia shares rose 1% ahead of earnings, seen as a key test for AI-driven market optimism. Fed minutes reflected a cautious stance, warning of "difficult tradeoffs" amid economic uncertainty. Trade concerns resurfaced after the Trump administration asked US firms to halt some semiconductor software sales to China, pressuring Cadence and Synopsys. Okta sank over 13% on weak guidance, while Abercrombie & Fitch jumped 16% and Dick’s gained 2% after strong reports. With Nvidia’s release looming, investors hope the AI leader can restore market momentum or risk adding to volatility depending on signals tied to demand and China exposure.

周三，美元指数攀升至99.9以上，较前一交易日上涨近0.4%，交易员消化了最新的联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要，并在特朗普政府持续的贸易紧张局势和财政政策发展中等待新的催化剂。联邦公开市场委员会上次会议的纪要显示，政策制定者正在采取观望态度，旨在评估最近政府行动和关税措施的经济影响。官员们承认，失业率上升和通货膨胀的风险都在增加。周日，特朗普总统将对欧盟进口商品征收50%关税的提议推迟到7月9日，就在这项全面措施公布几天后。美元普遍走强，兑日元汇率显著上涨，此前有报道称日本当局可能会干预以稳定其债券市场。尽管最近有所反弹，但美元仍接近4月份达到的2023年低点，今年迄今仍下跌7%以上。

The dollar index climbed above 99.9 on Wednesday, extending a nearly 0.4% gain from the previous session, as traders digested the latest FOMC minutes and awaited new catalysts amid ongoing trade tensions and fiscal policy developments under the Trump administration. Minutes from the last FOMC meeting revealed that policymakers are taking a wait-and-see approach, aiming to assess the economic impact of recent government actions and tariff measures. Officials acknowledged that risks of both rising unemployment and inflation had increased. On Sunday, President Trump postponed the implementation of a proposed 50% tariff on EU imports to July 9th, just days after unveiling the sweeping measure. The dollar strengthened broadly, with notable gains against the yen, following reports that Japanese authorities may intervene to stabilize their bond market. Despite the recent rebound, the greenback remains near its 2023 lows reached in April and is still down more than 7% year-to-date.

周三，10年期美国国债收益率升至4.5%，结束了四个交易日的下跌，因为市场评估了美联储的政策前景和财政部的财政风险。联邦公开市场委员会5月会议纪要显示，成员们同意推迟重要的政策转向，直到经济背景的不确定性缓解，同时承认经济增长和劳动力市场仍然强劲。利率期货继续显示出今年9月和12月将两次降息25个基点的松散共识。与此同时，美国国债也受到日本国债大幅下跌的压力。日本今天举行的40年期拍卖满足了10个月来最低的需求，表明投资者没有对财政部降低发行量的承诺做出反应。最后，债券也受到国内财政担忧的压力，因为众议院通过了一项法案，该法案将大幅扩大预算赤字，此前不久穆迪下调了美国信贷的不可持续债务轨迹。

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose toward the 4.5% mark on Wednesday, trimming four sessions of decline as markets assessed the policy outlook for the Fed and fiscal risks on the Treasury. Minutes from the FOMC's May meeting showed that members agreed to delay important policy pivots until uncertainty about the economic backdrop eased, while acknowledging that both growth and the labor market remain strong. Rate futures continued to show a loose consensus of two 25bps rate cuts this year to be delivered in September and December. In the meantime, Treasuries were also pressured by aggressive declines in JGBs. Japan's 40-year auction today met the weakest demand in 10 months, indicating that investors did not react to the MoF's pledge of lower issuance. Lastly, bonds were also under pressure by domestic fiscal concerns as the House passed a bill that would widen the budget deficit significantly, shortly after Moody's downgraded US credit on its unsustainable debt trajectory.

美联储会议纪要显示美联储日益谨慎，美元指数紧张。5月6日至7日美联储（Fed）联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）利率会议的最新会议纪要表明，这种观望态度具有历史根源。在这次会议上，政策制定者观察到，美元作为避风港的地位最近有所下降。

US Dollar Index jitters as Fed Meeting Minutes reveal increasingly-cautious Fed.The latest Meeting Minutes from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate meeting on May 6-7 indicate a historically rooted wait-and-see approach. At this meeting, policymakers observed that the US Dollar's (USD) status as a safe haven has recently diminished.