秘鲁9年期国债 (Peru9y) 加自选

2025年第一季度，秘鲁经济同比增长3.9%，较前一时期的4.9%略有放缓，这标志着在国内需求强劲（4.4%）的支撑下，秘鲁经济连续第五年实现增长。受就业率上升和劳动收入增加的推动，私人消费有所放缓（第四季度为3.8%对4.2%）。政府支出反弹（4.7%对-0.7%），这得益于公共行政和国防以及公共教育和公共卫生支出的增加。固定投资总额增长更快（9.7%对4.0%），公共和私人投资分别增长10.7%和9.5%。与此同时，净贸易对GDP做出了积极贡献，出口激增14.2%，进口飙升15.5%。按行业划分，产出增长主要集中在农业（4.0%）、石油、天然气和矿产开采（2.4%）、制造业（4.0%、建筑业（5.3%）、商业（3.4%）以及运输、仓储、邮件和快递服务（7.4%）。经季节性调整后，经济增长了0.6%。

Peru's economy expanded 3.9% year-on-year in Q1 2025, slowing slightly from 4.9% growth in the previous period and marking the fifth consecutive yearly expansion, supported by strength in domestic demand (4.4%). Private consumption rose eased (3.8% vs 4.2% in Q4), driven by higher employment and increased labor income. Government spending rebounded (4.7% vs -0.7%), fueled by higher expenditures on public administration and defense, as well as on public education and public health. Gross fixed investment increased faster (9.7% vs 4.0%), with public and private investment rising by 10.7% and 9.5%, respectively. Meanwhile, net trade contributed positively to GDP, as exports surged 14.2% and imports soared 15.5%. By sector, output grew mainly in agriculture (4.0%), oil, gas, and mineral extraction (2.4%), manufacturing (4.0%), construction (5.3%), commerce (3.4%), and transportation, warehousing, mail, and courier services (7.4%). On a seasonally adjusted basis, the economy grew by 0.6%.

2025年3月，秘鲁的贸易顺差扩大到25.04亿美元，远高于去年同期的15.93亿美元。这标志着四个月来最大的贸易顺差，出口同比增长26.5%，达到72.2亿美元，这得益于传统产品（+27.9%）和非传统产品（22.2%）的销售增长。与此同时，进口增长放缓14.6%，至47.15亿美元，反映出消费品（+20.9%）、中间产品（+7.8%）和资本货物（+21.8%）的购买量增加。今年前三个月，贸易顺差达到68.86亿美元，高于去年同期的47.58亿美元，出口增长25.2%，进口增长17.4%。

Peru’s trade surplus widened to USD 2,504 million in March 2025, significantly higher than the USD 1,593 million recorded in the same period last year. This marks the largest trade surplus in four months, as exports rose 26.5% year-on-year to USD 7,220 million, driven by increased sales of both traditional products (+27.9%) and non-traditional products (+22.3%). Meanwhile, imports grew at a softer pace of 14.6% to USD 4,715 million, reflecting higher purchases of consumer goods (+20.9%), intermediate goods (+7.8%), and capital goods (+21.8%). In the first three months of the year, the trade surplus reached USD 6,886 million, up from USD 4,758 million a year earlier, with exports increasing 25.2% and imports rising 17.4%.

2025年3月，秘鲁的国内生产总值从上个月的2.68%增长到4.67%，高于市场预期的3.97%的增长率，标志着连续第12个经济增长期。运输业（8.82%对2月份的5.66%）、工业（3.20%对1.94%）、商业（3.90%对3.09%）以及住宿和餐饮业（1.34%对0.64%）的产出加速。此外，采矿业（7.04%对-1.36%）和电力、天然气和水（4.31%对-1.64%）的国内生产总值出现反弹。与此同时，建筑业（5.22%对5.91%）和农业（3.34%对4.35%）的产出放缓。经季节性调整后，全国生产指数较上月下降0.06%。

Peru’s GDP grew 4.67% annually in March 2025 from the 2.68% growth in the previous month, above market expectations of a 3.97% expansion to mark the 12th consecutive period of economic growth. Output accelerated in transportation (8.82% vs. 5.66% in February), industry (3.20% vs. 1.94%), commerce (3.90% vs. 3.09%), and lodging and restaurants (1.34% vs. 0.64%). Also, the GDP rebounded in mining (7.04% vs. -1.36%) and electricity, gas and water (4.31% vs. -1.64%). Meanwhile, output slowed in the construction (5.22% vs. 5.91%) and agriculture (3.34% vs. 4.35%). The national production index, with seasonal adjustment, fell -0.06% compared to the previous month.

秘鲁央行在2025年5月的会议上将基准利率下调25个基点至4.5%，结束了三个月的利率调整暂停。此举使政策利率更接近其估计的中性水平，未来的变化取决于不断变化的通货膨胀动态和经济数据。4月份，整体通胀率环比上升0.32%，而核心通胀率（不包括食品和能源）为0.14%。年通货膨胀率从3月份的1.3%上升到1.7%，主要受食品价格的推动，尽管核心通货膨胀率保持稳定在1.9%，与银行的目标范围一致。未来12个月的通胀预期稳定在2.3%，也在目标区间内。秘鲁中央储备银行（BCRP）承认，当前和预期的经济活动指标略有减弱，但指出这些指标总体上仍然乐观，表明经济可能正在接近其潜力。

The central bank of Peru lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% during its May 2025 meeting, ending a three-month pause in rate adjustments. The move brings the policy rate closer to its estimated neutral level, with future changes dependent on evolving inflation dynamics and economic data. In April, headline inflation rose 0.32% month-over-month, while core inflation—excluding food and energy—came in at 0.14%. Annual inflation increased to 1.7%, up from 1.3% in March, largely driven by food prices, although core inflation remained stable at 1.9%, consistent with the bank’s target range. Inflation expectations over the next 12 months held steady at 2.3%, also within the target band. The Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) acknowledged a slight weakening in both current and expected economic activity indicators, but noted they remained generally optimistic, signaling that the economy is likely operating near its potential.