秘鲁9年期国债 (Peru9y) 加自选

2025年第二季度，秘鲁经济同比增长2.8%，较前一时期的3.9%略有放缓，这标志着在国内需求强劲（6.0%）的支撑下，秘鲁经济连续第六年实现增长。受就业率上升和劳动收入增加的推动，私人消费有所放缓（第一季度为2.9%对3.8%）。政府支出也有所下降（3.7%对4.7%），这得益于公共行政和国防以及公共教育和公共卫生支出的增加。固定投资总额增长更快（7.8%对4.0%），公共和私人投资分别增长3.2%和9.8%。与此同时，净贸易对GDP的贡献不大，出口增长2.7%，进口增长13.9%。按行业划分，产出增长主要集中在制造业/转型（3.0%）、服务业（2.8%）和采掘业（1.3%）。经季节性调整后，经济增长了0.5%。

Peru's economy expanded 2.8% year-on-year in Q2 2025, slowing slightly from 3.9% growth in the previous period and marking the sixth consecutive yearly expansion, supported by strength in domestic demand (6.0%). Private consumption eased (2.9% vs 3.8% in Q1), driven by higher employment and increased labor income. Government spending also eased (3.7% vs 4.7%), fueled by higher expenditures on public administration and defense, as well as on public education and public health. Gross fixed investment increased faster (7.8% vs 4.0%), with public and private investment rising by 3.2% and 9.8%, respectively. Meanwhile, net trade contributed modestly to GDP, as exports rose 2.7% and imports increased 13.9%. By sector, output grew mainly in manufacturing/transformation (3.0%), services (2.8%), and extractive industries (1.3%). On a seasonally adjusted basis, the economy grew by 0.5%.

2025年6月，秘鲁的国内生产总值年增长率为4.52%，高于上个月的2.67%，但低于4.7%的增长预期。这标志着经济连续第15个增长期，采矿和碳氢化合物产量恢复扩张（1.01%对5月份的-6.92%），而制造业（7.26%对2.44%）和建筑业（9.57%对6.04%）的活动加速。与此同时，农业（8.76%对9.26%）、交通（4.24%对5.70%）的增长放缓，住宿和餐饮业出现收缩（-3.27%对5.07%），商业保持稳定（3.14%对3.10%）。经季节性调整的全国生产指数与上月相比下降了0.21%。

Peru’s GDP grew by 4.52% annually in June 2025, accelerating from 2.67% in the previous month, yet missing expectations for a 4.7% expansion. This marked the 15th consecutive period of economic growth, as output in mining and hydrocarbons returned to expansion (1.01% vs -6.92% in May), while activity accelerated for manufacturing (7.26% vs 2.44%), and construction (9.57% vs 6.04%). Meanwhile growth moderated for agriculture (8.76% vs 9.26%), transportation (4.24% vs 5.70%), swung to contraction in lodging and restaurants (-3.27% vs 5.07%), and held steady in commerce (3.14% vs 3.10%). The national production index, seasonally adjusted, fell 0.21% compared to the previous month.

2025年6月，秘鲁的贸易顺差从去年同期的23.42亿美元扩大到25.23亿美元。这标志着自2024年11月以来最大的贸易顺差，出口同比增长11%，达到69.05亿美元，这得益于传统产品（+9.2%）和非传统产品（+17%）的销售增长，抵消了其他产品出货量的急剧下降（-27.8%）。与此同时，进口额增长13%，达到43.82亿美元，主要原因是消费品（+18.9%）、原材料和中间产品（+10.7%）以及资本货物（+12.2%）的购买量增加。今年上半年，贸易顺差从去年同期的98.79亿美元大幅扩大到124.5亿美元，出口飙升17%，进口增长13.3%。

Peru’s trade surplus widened to USD 2,523 million in June 2025, up from USD 2,342 million in the same month last year. This marks the largest trade surplus since November 2024, as exports rose 11% year-on-year to USD 6,905 million, driven by higher sales of traditional products (+9.2%) and non-traditional products (+17%), which offset a sharp decline in shipments of other products (-27.8%). Meanwhile, imports climbed 13% to USD 4,382 million, mainly due to increased purchases of consumer goods (+18.9%), raw materials and intermediate goods (+10.7%), and capital goods (+12.2%). For the first half of the year, the trade surplus expanded significantly to USD 12,450 million from USD 9,879 million in the same period last year, as exports soared 17% while imports rose a more moderate 13.3%.

秘鲁中央储备银行8月份将基准利率维持在4.50%，这表明未来的走势将取决于新的通胀数据及其主要驱动因素。7月份的月度通胀率上升0.23%，而核心通胀率上升0.18%，使年通胀率稳定在1.7%。未来12个月的通胀预期降至2.2%，仍在银行的目标范围内。BCRP预计，未来几个月通胀将保持在目标下限附近，然后稳定在中点附近。7月份，大多数经济活动和情绪指标都有所改善，几乎所有指标都处于乐观区间，尽管由于贸易限制和市场波动，全球增长前景有所减弱。该行重申，如有必要，它随时准备采取行动，维持相关政策利率，如隔夜存款2.50%和某些货币监管信贷业务5.00%。

Peru’s Central Reserve Bank kept its benchmark interest rate at 4.50% in August, signaling that future moves will depend on new inflation data and its key drivers. July’s monthly inflation rose 0.23%, while core inflation increased 0.18%, leaving both annual rates steady at 1.7%. Inflation expectations for the next 12 months eased to 2.2%, remaining within the bank’s target range. The BCRP expects inflation to stay near the lower bound of its target in the coming months before stabilizing around the midpoint. Most economic activity and sentiment indicators improved in July, with nearly all in optimistic territory, though global growth prospects have weakened amid trade restrictions and market volatility. The bank reaffirmed its readiness to act if needed, maintaining related policy rates such as 2.50% for overnight deposits and 5.00% for certain monetary regulation credit operations.