秘鲁9年期国债 (Peru9y) 加自选

2025年10月，秘鲁首都利马的年通货膨胀率几乎保持不变，为1.35%，而前一个月为1.36%，仍接近央行1%至3%目标范围的下限。娱乐和文化价格的放缓（9月份为2.53%对2.69%）被食品和非酒精饮料（0.80%对0.59%）以及交通（0.50%对0.30%）的快速增长所抵消。与此同时，住房和公用事业价格下跌速度更快（-1.52%对-1.15%）。按月计算，10月份CPI在上个月小幅上涨0.01%后，小幅下跌0.10%。

The annual inflation rate in Peru’s capital, Lima, was almost unchanged in October 2025 at 1.35%, compared to 1.36% in the previous month, remaining near the lower end of the central bank's target range of 1% to 3%. A slowdown in prices for recreation and culture (2.53% vs 2.69% in September) was offset by faster increases in food and non-alcoholic beverages (0.80% vs 0.59%) and transportation (0.50% vs 0.30%). Meanwhile, housing and utilities prices fell at a steeper pace (-1.52% vs -1.15%). On a monthly basis, the CPI edged down by 0.10% in October, after edging up 0.01% in the previous month.

2025年8月，秘鲁的国内生产总值同比增长3.18%，低于上个月的3.41%，标志着连续第17个月的增长。减速反映了制造业（0.06%对7月份的3.65%）、建筑业（3.60%对5.03%）、农业（6.43%对8.49%）和运输业（4.03%对4.28%）的增长疲软。相比之下，采矿和碳氢化合物继续扩张（1.78%对1.95%），住宿和餐馆恢复增长（0.89%对-0.82%），商业增强（3.78%对2.72%）。经季节性调整的全国生产指数比上月上涨0.29%。

Peru’s GDP grew by 3.18% year-on-year in August 2025, slowing from 3.41% in the previous month and marking the seventeenth consecutive monthly expansion. The deceleration reflected weaker growth in manufacturing (0.06% vs. 3.65% in July), construction (3.60% vs. 5.03%), agriculture (6.43% vs. 8.49%) and transportation (4.03% vs. 4.28%). By contrast, mining and hydrocarbons continued to expand (1.78% vs. 1.95%), lodging and restaurants swung back to growth (0.89% vs. -0.82%), and commerce strengthened (3.78% vs. 2.72%). The national production index, seasonally adjusted, rose 0.29% compared with the previous month.

由于出口超过进口，秘鲁的贸易顺差从去年同月的21.55亿美元扩大到2025年8月的25.78亿美元。出口同比增长11.8%，达到76.8亿美元，这得益于传统产品（+11.8%）和非传统产品（-11.5%）的出货量增加，而其他产品的销售额大幅增长了42.7%。与此同时，进口增长放缓7%，达到51.02亿美元，反映了消费品（+17.8%）、资本品（+16.6%）和其他商品（+797.2%）的增长，抵消了原材料和中间产品（-7.1%）的下降。1月至8月，贸易顺差从去年同期的143.34亿美元扩大到171.79亿美元，出口增长14.5%，达到549.77亿美元，进口增长12.2%，达到377.97亿美元。

Peru’s trade surplus widened to USD 2,578 million in August 2025 from USD 2,155 million in the same month last year, as exports outpaced imports. Exports surged 11.8% year-on-year to USD 7,680 million, driven by higher shipments of traditional products (+11.8%) and non-traditional products (+11.5%), while sales of other products rose sharply by 42.7%. Meanwhile, imports increased at a slower pace of 7% to USD 5,102 million, reflecting a rise in consumer goods (+17.8%), capital goods (+16.6%), and other goods (+797.2%), which offset a decline in raw materials and intermediate goods (-7.1%). For the January–August period, the trade surplus expanded to USD 17,179 million from USD 14,334 million a year earlier, as exports rose 14.5% to USD 54,977 million and imports grew 12.2% to USD 37,797 million.

正如预期的那样，秘鲁中央储备银行在2025年10月将基准利率维持在4.25%不变。该委员会指出，9月份的月度通胀率为0.01%，而不包括食品和能源在内的核心通胀率为0.06%；年通货膨胀率上升至1.4%，核心通货膨胀率稳定在1.8%。未来12个月的通胀预期仍为2.2%，在目标范围内，预计到年底将保持在接近中心的水平。尽管全球经济增长面临贸易限制带来的下行风险，但大多数经济指标保持积极，经济活动接近其潜力。BCRP强调，将密切关注通胀趋势、预期和经济活动，并根据需要调整政策。设定了本币操作利率，包括过去三个月前十次操作的隔夜存款为2.25%，直接回购为4.75%。

Peru’s Central Reserve Bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% in October 2025, as expected. The board noted that monthly inflation was 0.01 percent in September, while core inflation, excluding food and energy, was 0.06 percent; annual inflation rose to 1.4 percent, with core inflation steady at 1.8 percent. Inflation expectations for the next 12 months remained at 2.2 percent, within the target range, and are projected to stay near the center by year-end. Most economic indicators stayed positive, with activity near its potential, though global growth faces downside risks from trade restrictions. The BCRP emphasized it will closely monitor inflation trends, expectations, and economic activity, adjusting policy as needed. Operational rates in local currency were set, including overnight deposits at 2.25 percent and direct repos at 4.75 percent for the first ten operations in the past three months.