秘鲁9年期国债 (Peru9y) 加自选

由于进口增长快于出口，秘鲁2025年7月的贸易顺差从去年同期的23.5亿美元收窄至21.03亿美元。进口额同比增长11.9%，达到50.84亿美元，主要受消费品（+17.6%）、原材料和中间产品（+1.1%）、资本货物（+18.3%）和其他商品（+1940.8%）大幅增长的推动。与此同时，出口增长4.3%，至71.88亿美元，这得益于传统产品（+3.3%）和非传统产品（+6.1%）的销售增长，以及其他类别的强劲增长（+101.4%）。1月至7月，贸易顺差从去年同期的122.29亿美元扩大到145.53亿美元，出口增长14.8%，达到472.37亿美元，超过了进口增长13.1%，达到326.84亿美元。

Peru’s trade surplus narrowed to USD 2,103 million in July 2025, down from USD 2,350 million in the same month last year, as imports grew faster than exports. Imports climbed 11.9% year-on-year to USD 5,084 million, driven by consumer goods (+17.6%), raw materials and intermediate goods (+1.1%), capital goods (+18.3%), and a stellar rise in other goods (+1,940.8%). Meanwhile, exports increased by a softer 4.3% to USD 7,188 million, supported by higher sales of traditional products (+3.3%) and non-traditional products (+6.1%), along with a strong growth in other categories (+101.4%). For the January–July period, the trade surplus widened to USD 14,553 million from USD 12,229 million a year earlier, as exports jumped 14.8% to USD 47,237 million, outpacing a 13.1% increase in imports to USD 32,684 million.

2025年9月，秘鲁中央储备银行将基准利率下调25个基点至4.25%。这一决定反映了最近的通货膨胀动态，8月份整体通货膨胀率下降了0.29%，核心通货膨胀率（不包括食品和能源）小幅上升了0.08%。按年度计算，总体通胀率从7月份的1.7%降至1.1%，主要原因是食品价格下跌。核心通胀率小幅上升至1.8%，而12个月通胀预期稳定在2.2%，均接近目标区间的中点。预测表明，在国内指标改善的支持下，通货膨胀将在年底前与中点保持一致，尽管未来活动的前景喜忧参半。由于贸易限制和持续的不确定性，全球形势仍然具有挑战性。BCRP重申其承诺，如有必要，将调整货币政策，将通货膨胀控制在目标范围内，同时更新隔夜存款和其他本币业务的利率。

Peru’s Central Reserve Bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 4.25% in September 2025. The decision reflected recent inflation dynamics, with headline inflation falling 0.29% in August and core inflation (excluding food and energy) edging up 0.08%. On an annual basis, headline inflation eased to 1.1% from 1.7% in July, largely due to lower food prices. Core inflation rose slightly to 1.8%, while 12-month inflation expectations held steady at 2.2%, both near the midpoint of the target range. Projections suggest inflation will align with the midpoint by year-end, supported by improving domestic indicators, though outlooks for future activity were mixed. Global conditions remain challenging, weighed down by trade restrictions and persistent uncertainty. The BCRP reaffirmed its commitment to adjust monetary policy if needed to keep inflation within the target range, while also updating rates for overnight deposits and other local currency operations.

秘鲁首都利马的年通货膨胀率从之前的1.69%降至2025年8月的1.11%，达到2018年以来的最低水平，接近央行1%-3%目标的下限。娱乐和文化价格放缓（2.57%对2.68%）。此外，食品和非酒精饮料的价格下降（-0.32%对1.68%）；住房和公用事业（-0.99%对0.12%）和交通（-0.09%对-0.02%）。8月份CPI环比下降0.29%，而前一个月上涨0.23%。

The annual inflation rate in Peru’s capital, Lima, fell to 1.11% in August 2025 from 1.69% previously, reaching the lowest since 2018 and nearing the lower bound of the central bank’s 1%–3% target. A slowdown was observed in prices of recreation & culture (2.57% vs 2.68%). Moreover, prices decreased for food & non-alcoholic beverages (-0.32% vs 1.68%); housing & utilities (-0.99% vs 0.12%) and transportation (-0.09% vs -0.02%). On a monthly basis, the CPI decreased by 0.29% in August, after a 0.23% rise in the prior month.

2025年第二季度，秘鲁经济同比增长2.8%，较前一时期的3.9%略有放缓，这标志着在国内需求强劲（6.0%）的支撑下，秘鲁经济连续第六年实现增长。受就业率上升和劳动收入增加的推动，私人消费有所放缓（第一季度为2.9%对3.8%）。政府支出也有所下降（3.7%对4.7%），这得益于公共行政和国防以及公共教育和公共卫生支出的增加。固定投资总额增长更快（7.8%对4.0%），公共和私人投资分别增长3.2%和9.8%。与此同时，净贸易对GDP的贡献不大，出口增长2.7%，进口增长13.9%。按行业划分，产出增长主要集中在制造业/转型（3.0%）、服务业（2.8%）和采掘业（1.3%）。经季节性调整后，经济增长了0.5%。

Peru's economy expanded 2.8% year-on-year in Q2 2025, slowing slightly from 3.9% growth in the previous period and marking the sixth consecutive yearly expansion, supported by strength in domestic demand (6.0%). Private consumption eased (2.9% vs 3.8% in Q1), driven by higher employment and increased labor income. Government spending also eased (3.7% vs 4.7%), fueled by higher expenditures on public administration and defense, as well as on public education and public health. Gross fixed investment increased faster (7.8% vs 4.0%), with public and private investment rising by 3.2% and 9.8%, respectively. Meanwhile, net trade contributed modestly to GDP, as exports rose 2.7% and imports increased 13.9%. By sector, output grew mainly in manufacturing/transformation (3.0%), services (2.8%), and extractive industries (1.3%). On a seasonally adjusted basis, the economy grew by 0.5%.