智利10年期国债 (Chile10Y) 加自选

智利的年通货膨胀率从8月份的4.0%加速至2025年9月的4.4%，为5月份以来的最高水平。这一增长是由公用事业（9.8%对9.5%）、食品和非酒精饮料（4.9%对3.5%）、餐馆和住宿（6.6%对6.1%）以及医疗保健（4.9%比4.3%）的价格上涨推动的。教育（5.3%对5.2%）、娱乐和文化（3.2%对2.7%）、酒精饮料和烟草（3.9%对3.7%）以及交通（0.4%对0.2%）的通货膨胀也加快了。相比之下，服装和鞋类价格进一步下跌（-2.8%对-1.0%）。按月计算，消费者价格指数上涨0.4%，从8月份的持平反弹。

Chile’s annual inflation accelerated to 4.4% in September 2025 from 4.0% in August, marking the highest level since May. The uptick was driven by higher prices for utilities (9.8% vs 9.5%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (4.9% vs 3.5%), restaurants and lodging (6.6% vs 6.1%), and healthcare (4.9% vs 4.3%). Inflation also quickened in education (5.3% vs 5.2%), recreation and culture (3.2% vs 2.7%), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (3.9% vs 3.7%), and transport (0.4% vs 0.2%). In contrast, clothing and footwear prices declined further (-2.8% vs -1.0%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.4%, rebounding from a flat reading in August.

2025年9月，智利的贸易顺差从一年前的17.7亿美元收窄至9.3亿美元，进口额增长22.7%至74.9亿美元。消费品采购增长13.3%，受汽油进口激增287.2%的推动，而中间产品增长24.5%，机械零部件进口增加（+92.7%）。资本货物进口增长31.2%，其中电动机、发电机和变压器领涨（+292.6%）。出口增长8.1%，至84.2亿美元，受钼（+522.2%）、黄金（+251.8%）和白银（+145.5%）出货量增加的支撑，抵消了铜出口2%的下降。农业、林业和渔业出口增长42.5%，工业品增长10%。贸易顺差环比扩大2.9%。

Chile’s trade surplus narrowed to $0.93 billion in September 2025 from $1.77 billion a year earlier, as imports jumped 22.7% to $7.49 billion. Purchases of consumer goods rose 13.3%, driven by a 287.2% surge in gasoline imports, while intermediate goods climbed 24.5% amid higher imports of machinery parts (+92.7%). Capital goods imports advanced 31.2%, led by electric motors, generators, and transformers (+292.6%). Exports increased 8.1% to $8.42 billion, supported by higher shipments of molybdenum (+522.2%), gold (+251.8%), and silver (+145.5%), which offset a 2% drop in copper exports. Agricultural, forestry, and fishing exports jumped 42.5%, and industrial goods rose 10%. Month-on-month, the trade surplus widened by 2.9%.

2025年8月，智利IMACEC经济活动指数同比增长0.5%，低于7月的1.8%，低于市场预期的2%。服务业（+2.4%）和贸易（+3.9%）支撑了增长，而采矿产量下降了8.6%。零售和批发销售推动了贸易活动，超市、百货公司、食品、服装和汽车行业均有所增长。服务业主要受到教育的推动，这得益于去年的低基数。在生产方面，商品产量下降3.4%，主要是采矿业（-8.9%）和发电量下降，而制造业因粮食产量增加而增长0.5%。按月计算，经济活动收缩了0.7%。

Chile’s IMACEC economic activity index rose 0.5% year-on-year in August 2025, slowing from 1.8% in July and missing market expectations of 2%. Growth was supported by services (+2.4%) and trade (+3.9%), while mining output fell 8.6%. Retail and wholesale sales drove trade activity, with gains in supermarkets, department stores, food, apparel, and autos. Services were boosted mainly by education, helped by last year’s low base. On the production side, goods output fell 3.4%, led by mining (-8.9%) and lower electricity generation, while manufacturing rose 0.5% on stronger food production. On a monthly basis, activity contracted 0.7%.

惠誉评级于2025年9月26日确认智利的长期外汇评级为“A-”，前景稳定，理由是治理良好，债务偿还记录良好。该机构指出，智利在人权和政治自由方面的ESG相关性得分为4[+]，这得到了其在世界银行声音和问责制指标中超过50%的排名的支持。它还为债权分配了“4[+]”分，反映了20多年来没有重组公共债务，这增强了人们对其还款能力的信心。其他ESG因素被评为“3”，这意味着它们是信用中性的，直接影响有限。惠誉强调，ESG评分不是正式的评级输入，但强调了这些因素与智利信用状况的相关性。

Fitch Ratings affirmed Chile’s long-term foreign currency rating at ‘A-’ with a Stable Outlook on September 26, 2025, citing strong governance and a solid debt repayment record. The agency noted Chile’s ESG Relevance Score of ‘4[+]’ for Human Rights and Political Freedoms, supported by its above-50 percentile ranking in the World Bank’s Voice and Accountability indicator. It also assigned a ‘4[+]’ score for Creditor Rights, reflecting more than two decades without a restructuring of public debt, which bolsters confidence in its repayment capacity. Other ESG factors were rated ‘3,’ meaning they are credit-neutral with limited direct impact. Fitch emphasized that ESG scores are not formal rating inputs but highlight the relevance of these factors to Chile’s credit profile.