智利10年期国债 (Chile10Y) 加自选

智利央行周三将2025年经济增长预测上调至2.25%-2.75%，高于此前预测的2.0%-2.75%。该行还将其2026年GDP增长预测修订为1.75%-2.75%，而此前的范围为1.5%-2.5%。与此同时，目前预计2025年的平均年通货膨胀率为4.4%，略高于此前预测的4.3%。央行补充说，预计到2026年第三季度，通货膨胀率将达到3%的目标。

Chile’s central bank raised its 2025 economic growth forecast on Wednesday to a range of 2.25%–2.75%, up from its previous estimate of 2.0%–2.75%, lifting the lower end of the projection. The bank also revised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.75%–2.75%, compared to the earlier range of 1.5%–2.5%. Meanwhile, the average annual inflation rate for 2025 is now expected at 4.4%, slightly higher than the 4.3% projected previously. The central bank added that inflation is expected to reach its 3% target by the third quarter of 2026.

正如预期的那样，智利央行在8月份的会议上一致决定将基准利率维持在4.75%不变。董事会指出，尽管仍存在不确定性，包括美国关税对贸易流动的影响及其对经济活动和通货膨胀的潜在影响，但外部环境基本上如预期般发展。全球市场预计，美联储本月将恢复降息，这将有助于降低利率和股市普遍上涨。在国内，受投资和私人消费的推动，智利第二季度国内生产总值温和增长，而劳动力市场则显示出8.7%的失业率，喜忧参半的信号。总通胀率继续下降，但潜在通胀率仍高于预期，需要密切监测。央行强调，货币政策将保持灵活性，目标是在两年内将预期通胀率保持在3%。

The Central Bank of Chile left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.75% in a unanimous decision during its August meeting, as expected. The board noted that the external environment has evolved largely as expected, though uncertainties remain, including the effects of US tariffs on trade flows and their potential impact on activity and inflation. Global markets expect the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts this month, contributing to lower rates and broad stock market gains. Domestically, Chile’s GDP grew moderately in the second quarter, driven by investment and private consumption, while the labor market shows mixed signals with an 8.7% unemployment rate. Total inflation continues to decline, but underlying inflation remains above expectations, requiring close monitoring. The Central Bank emphasized that monetary policy will remain flexible, aiming to keep projected inflation at 3% over a two-year horizon.

2025年8月，智利的贸易顺差为9.1亿美元，低于去年同期的12亿美元。出口同比下降1.7%，至78.57亿美元的近一年低点，原因是矿产品出货量减少（-1.9%），尤其是铜（-2.2%）和制成品（-4.2%）。这部分被农业、林业和渔业出口强劲增长19.1%所抵消，这得益于水果（+24.3%）和林业产品（+15.2%）的出货量增加。与此同时，进口增长2.3%，达到69.51亿美元，这得益于资本货物激增（+27.3%）和消费品小幅增长（+1%），而中间产品下降7.3%。

Chile ran a trade surplus of $0.91 billion in August 2025, smaller than $1.20 billion in the same month of the previous year. Exports fell 1.7% year-on-year to a near one-year low of $7.857 billion, amid reduced shipments of mining products (-1.9%), especially copper (-2.2%) and manufactured products (-4.2%). This was partially offset by a robust 19.1% increase in agricultural, forestry, and fishing exports, fueled by higher shipments of fruits (+24.3%) and forestry products (+15.2%). Meanwhile, imports increased by 2.3% to $6.951 billion, supported by a surge in capital goods (+27.3%) and modest gains in consumer goods (+1%), while intermediate goods fell 7.3%.

智利的年通货膨胀率从7月份的4.3%降至2025年8月的4.0%，低于2024年4月以来最低价格增长4.2%的预期。经济放缓主要是由于服装和鞋类的通货紧缩（-1.0%对1.4%）以及酒精饮料和烟草（3.7%对5.2%）、住房和公用事业（9.5%对9.8%）、家用设备和维护（0.7%对1.9%）、交通（0.2%对0.6%）、信息和通信（0.5%对1.0%）以及娱乐、体育和文化（2.7%对3.8%）的价格增长疲软。相比之下，医疗保健（5.3%对4.7%）、食品和非酒精饮料（3.5%对3.2%）以及保险和金融服务（2.1%对0.1%）的通货膨胀率有所上升。按月计算，消费者价格在7月份上涨0.9%后保持不变。

Chile’s annual inflation eased to 4.0% in August 2025 from 4.3% in July, below expectations of 4.2% for the slowest price growth since April 2024. The slowdown was mainly due to deflation in clothing and footwear (-1.0% vs 1.4%) and weaker price growth in alcoholic beverages and tobacco (3.7% vs 5.2%), housing and utilities (9.5% vs 9.8%), household equipment and maintenance (0.7% vs 1.9%), transport (0.2% vs 0.6%), information and communication (0.5% vs 1.0%), and recreation, sports, and culture (2.7% vs 3.8%). In contrast, inflation picked up for healthcare (5.3% vs 4.7%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (3.5% vs 3.2%), and insurance and financial services (2.1% vs 0.1%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices were unchanged, after rising 0.9% in July.