巴西3个月期国债 (Brazil3M) 加自选

标准普尔全球巴西制造业采购经理人指数从5月份的49.4降至2025年6月的48.3，标志着自2023年7月以来工厂活动的最严重恶化，并结束了该行业自2023年底以来最糟糕的季度。新出口订单的急剧下降导致了经济衰退，从而拖累了总销售额的下降。因此，制造商大幅削减了产量，并在近两年来首次减少了人员配备。企业还缩减了投入采购和库存，以节省现金。虽然投入成本通胀略有回升，但仍低于历史平均水平，产出费用仅小幅上涨。

The S&P Global Brazil Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3 in June 2025 from 49.4 in May, marking the sharpest deterioration in factory activity since July 2023 and closing out the sector’s worst quarter since late 2023. The downturn was led by a steep decline in new export orders, which dragged total sales lower. As a result, manufacturers cut back production more significantly and reduced staffing levels for the first time in nearly two years. Firms also scaled down input purchases and inventories to conserve cash. While input cost inflation picked up slightly, it remained below the historical average, and output charges rose only modestly.

周二，Ibovespa指数小幅上涨，收于139000点以上，因为投资者预计政府可能会向最高法院提起诉讼，质疑国会废除IOF增税。财政部长费尔南多·哈达德表示，此案可能会在总检察长办公室批准之前继续进行。与此同时，巴西6月份的采购经理人指数显示，工业活动处于两年来的最低点。卢拉总统出席了2025/2026年收获计划的启动仪式，该计划为商业农业拨款5162亿雷亚尔，比上一周期增长1.5%。在企业方面，巴西航空工业公司在向巴拉圭空军交付喷气式飞机并与SAS签署协议出售多达55架飞机后，股价飙升4.4%。巴西国家电力公司（+0.4%）、巴西国家石油公司（+0.2%）、巴西银行（+0.20%）和Bradesco（+1.1%）也上涨。淡水河谷股价在波动中下跌近1%。

The Ibovespa inched higher to trade above 139,000 on Tuesday, as investors anticipated a potential Supreme Court lawsuit by the government challenging Congress’s repeal of the IOF tax hike. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said the case may proceed pending approval by the Attorney General’s Office. Meanwhile, Brazil’s June PMI showed industrial activity at a two-year low. President Lula attended the launch of the 2025/2026 Harvest Plan, which earmarks R$516.2 billion for commercial agriculture, a 1.5% increase from the prior cycle. On the corporate front, Embraer surged 4.4% after delivering jets to Paraguay’s Air Force and signing a deal with SAS to sell up to 55 aircraft. Eletrobras (+0.4%), Petrobras (+0.2%), Banco do Brasil (+0.2%), and Bradesco (+1.1%) also rose. Vale slipped nearly 1% amid volatility.

巴西财政官员表示债务担忧，但敦促逐步进行财政调整。巴西财政部执行秘书Dario Durigan周二承认对该国债务轨迹的担忧，但表示政府需要时间来实施逐步的财政调整。

Brazil finance official flags debt concern, but urges time for gradual fiscal adjustment.The executive secretary of Brazil's finance ministry, Dario Durigan, acknowledged on Tuesday concern over the country's debt trajectory, but said the government needs time to implement a gradual fiscal adjustment.

周一，Ibovespa指数上涨1.5%，收于136855点，受全球贸易乐观情绪和强劲的国内动态推动。对即将达成的美国贸易协定的信心——白宫保证在7月9日关税休战失效前签署更多协定——提振了出口导向型行业，并吸引了新的外国资金流入巴西股市。在国内，5月份的财政数据优于预期，公共债务总额与国内生产总值之比为76.1%，而普遍认为为76.6%，缓解了人们对巴西债务轨迹的担忧。与此同时，在Copom重申Selic利率将“在很长一段时间内”保持高位后，出现了对收益率敏感的名称的轮换，从而保持了有吸引力的利率差异，并推动了银行和房地产信托的收益。巴西银行、桑坦德银行、伊塔乌萨银行和布拉德斯科银行领涨，各上涨1.1%至2.2%。

The Ibovespa climbed 1.5% to close at 136,855 on Monday, fueled by global trade optimism and robust domestic dynamics. Confidence in imminent US trade agreements—underscored by White House assurances of additional pacts before the July 9th tariff truce lapse—lifted export-oriented sectors and drew fresh foreign inflows into Brazilian equities. At home, May’s fiscal figures outperformed expectations, with the gross public debt-to-GDP ratio registering 76.1% versus a 76.6% consensus, easing concerns over Brazil’s debt trajectory. Simultaneously, a rotation into yield-sensitive names followed Copom’s reaffirmation that the Selic rate will remain elevated “for a very prolonged period,” preserving attractive interest-rate differentials and driving gains in banks and real-estate trusts. Banco do Brasil, Santander, Itaúsa and Bradesco led the advance, each up between 1.1% and 2.2%.