美国20年期国债 (US20Y) 加自选

特朗普对杰罗姆·鲍威尔说“太晚了”。..你应该感到羞愧。。特朗普总统在Truth Social上表示，杰罗姆·鲍威尔和整个董事会应该为自己允许利率保持如此之高而感到羞愧。

Trump to Jerome "Too Late" Powell...You should be ashamed..Pres. Trump is on Truth Social saying that Jerome "Too Late" Powell and the entire board should be ashamed of themselves for allowing rates to remain so high.

高盛将美联储下一次降息从12月推迟到9月。高盛将其移至美联储从12月到9月降息之后。今天早些时候，美联储的Bostic表示，他预计2024年将降息一次，美联储并不急于降息。

Goldman Sachs moves their next Fed rate cut from December to September.Goldman Sachs has moved it next to Fed rate cut from December to September. Earlier today Fed's Bostic said that he expects one rate cut in 2024 and that the Fed was not in a hurry to cut rates.

达拉斯联邦储备银行得克萨斯州制造业的一般商业活动指数从5月份的-15.3升至2025年6月的-12.7，标志着第五个月出现收缩，并有缓解迹象。第二个月产量持平，生产指数稳定在1.3。新订单仍为负，为-7.3，出货量降至-7.3，产能利用率接近于零，为-1.0。公司前景指数小幅改善至-8.9，但不确定性上升至15.2，表明在持续疲软的情况下更加谨慎。劳工数据显示，招聘略有回升，就业指数为5.7，但工作时间降至-8.4，表明每周工作时间缩短。价格压力居高不下，成品价格升至26.1，为近三年来最高水平，而工资增长仍然疲软，工资指数降至13.4。展望未来，制造业预期保持谨慎乐观，未来生产指数为22.6，未来商业活动指数高于平均水平。

The Dallas Fed’s general business activity index for Texas manufacturing rose to -12.7 in June 2025 from -15.3 in May, marking a fifth month of contraction with signs of easing. Output was flat for the second month, with the production index steady at 1.3. New orders remained negative at -7.3, shipments dropped to -7.3, and capacity utilization held near zero at -1.0. The company outlook index improved slightly to -8.9, but uncertainty rose to 15.2, indicating increased caution amid ongoing weakness. Labor data showed a slight hiring pickup, with the employment index at 5.7, though hours worked fell to -8.4, indicating shorter workweeks. Price pressures stayed elevated, with finished goods prices rising to 26.1—the highest in nearly three years—while wage growth remained subdued, the wages index easing to 13.4. Looking ahead, manufacturing expectations stayed cautiously positive, with the future production index at 22.6 and the future business activity index above average.

芝加哥商业晴雨表从5月份的40.5降至2025年6月的40.4，低于市场预期的43。该指数已连续19个月保持在50点以下，比3月份的高点47.6低7.2点。下降的原因是供应商交付（-6.8点）、生产（-2.7点）、就业（-3.9点）和订单积压（-1.5点）的读数下降，部分被新订单的4.1点反弹所抵消。订单积压降至2020年5月以来的最低水平，只有4%的受访者报告了更大的积压，接近历史最低水平。库存下降8点。与此同时，支付价格飙升8.3点，达到2022年5月以来的最高水平，70%的公司报告投入成本增加。

The Chicago Business Barometer slipped to 40.4 in June 2025 from 40.5 in May, missing market expectations of 43. The index has now stayed below the 50-point threshold for 19 straight months and sits 7.2 points below March’s high of 47.6. The decline was driven by lower readings in supplier deliveries (-6.8 pts), production (-2.7 pts), employment (-3.9 pts), and order backlogs (-1.5 pts), partially offset by a 4.1-point rebound in new orders. Order backlogs fell to their lowest level since May 2020, with just 4% of respondents reporting larger backlogs—near a record low. Inventories dropped 8 points. Meanwhile, prices paid surged 8.3 points to the highest since May 2022, with 70% of firms reporting higher input costs.