美国52周国债 (US52W) 加自选

周三，ISM服务业采购经理人指数跌幅远超预期，显示美国服务业三个月来增长最慢，美元指数早盘下跌至106.3水平附近，几乎没有变化。本月降息25个基点的可能性小幅攀升至近76%，高于当天早些时候的74%和一周前的53%。与此同时，交易员们期待着美联储主席鲍威尔即将发表的讲话，以寻找美联储下一步行动的线索。投资者也在期待周五的关键就业报告，而周三公布的ADP数据显示，美国私营部门在11月增加了14.6万个工作岗位，这是一个强劲的数字，仅略低于预期的15万个。美元兑欧元和英镑走弱，但兑日元和澳元升值幅度最大。

The dollar index cut early gains to trade little changed around the 106.3 level on Wednesday, after the ISM Services PMI fell much more than expected, pointing to the slowest growth in the US services sector for three months. The odds for a 25bps rate cut this month have climbed slightly to nearly 76%, up from 74% earlier in the day and 53% a week ago. Meanwhile, traders looked ahead to Fed Chair Powell’s upcoming remarks for clues on the central bank’s next move. Investors are also anticipating Friday’s key jobs report, while the ADP data released Wednesday showed the U.S. private sector added 146K jobs in November, a robust figure and only slightly below expectations of 150K. The greenback weakened against the euro and the British pound but appreciated the most against the yen and the Australian dollar.

EIA石油状况报告的数据显示，截至2024年11月29日的一周，美国原油库存下降507.3万桶，为五个月来最多，高于市场预期的100万桶。另一方面，汽油库存增加236.2万辆，超过预期的60万辆；包括柴油和取暖油在内的馏分油库存增加了338.3万桶，而普遍认为增加了200万桶。

Crude oil inventories in the US fell by 5.073 million barrels in the week ended November 29, 2024, the most in five months and above market expectations of a 1 million draw, data from the EIA Petroleum Status Report showed. On the other hand, gasoline stocks increased by 2.362 million, more than forecasts of a 0.6 million increase; and distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 3.383 million barrels, compared with a consensus of a 2 million increase.

美国10年期国债收益率周三早盘上涨至4.23%左右，此前ISM服务业采购经理人指数跌幅远超预期，表明美国服务业增长为三个月来最慢。本月降息25个基点的可能性小幅攀升至近76%，高于当天早些时候的74%和一周前的53%。与此同时，交易员们期待着美联储主席鲍威尔即将发表的讲话，以寻找美联储下一步行动的线索。投资者也在期待周五的关键就业报告，而周三公布的ADP数据显示，美国私营部门在11月增加了14.6万个工作岗位，这是一个强劲的数字，仅略低于预期的15万个。

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note early gains to trade little changed around 4.23% on Wednesday, after the ISM Services PMI fell much more than expected, pointing to the slowest growth in the US services sector for three months. The odds for a 25bps rate cut this month have climbed slightly to nearly 76%, up from 74% earlier in the day and 53% a week ago. Meanwhile, traders looked ahead to Fed Chair Powell’s upcoming remarks for clues on the central bank’s next move. Investors are also anticipating Friday’s key jobs report, while the ADP data released Wednesday showed the U.S. private sector added 146K jobs in November, a robust figure and only slightly below expectations of 150K.

美联储的Musalem暗示可能暂停降息。圣路易斯联储主席阿尔贝托·穆萨勒姆在今天的一次活动中强调，在央行评估不断变化的经济环境时，保持“政策可选性”的重要性。

Fed's Musalem signals potential pause in rate cuts.Speaking at an event today, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem emphasized the importance of maintaining “policy optionality” as the central bank assesses the evolving economic environment.