随着财政指标的改善、新兴市场债务的强劲流入以及货币预期的转变，巴西10年期政府债券的收益率降至13.8%，为今年的最低水平。财政部数据显示，5月份的主要赤字收窄至406亿雷亚尔，远低于预期，将12个月的滚动余额推至官方目标区间内的适度盈余，并缓解了对债务可持续性的担忧。此外，Copom决定将基准利率上调至15%，再加上会议纪要表明利率将在“很长一段时间”内保持在限制性水平，以确保通胀趋同，增强对巴西通货紧缩道路的信心，鼓励长期债券购买。与此同时，美联储下调预期的增加促使寻求收益的外国投资者将资本重新配置到高收益债券中。摩根大通指出，新兴市场主权利差和地方债务回报率分别处于2022年以来的最窄和最高水平。
The yield on Brazil’s 10-year government bond eased toward 13.8%, its lowest level this year, amid improving fiscal metrics, strong inflows into emerging-market debt, and shifting monetary expectations. Treasury data showed May’s primary deficit narrowed to R$40.6 billion—well below forecasts—pushing the 12-month rolling balance into a modest surplus within the official target band and easing concerns over debt sustainability. Additionally, Copom’s decision to hike the Selic to 15%, coupled with meeting minutes signaling rates will remain at restrictive levels for a “very prolonged period” to ensure inflation convergence, bolstered confidence in Brazil’s disinflation path, encouraging long-end bond buying. At the same time, growing Fed-cut expectations have prompted yield-seeking foreign investors to redeploy capital into high-yielding bonds. JPMorgan notes that EM sovereign spreads and local-debt returns are at their tightest and highest levels, respectively, since 2022.
