9月份，巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率超过5.4，为2024年6月以来的最高水平，因为美联储宽松政策的前景更加明朗，导致美元疲软，同时国内利率仍然宽松，通胀动态改善，吸引了外国资本。从外部来看，一系列疲软的美国劳动力和价格数据，包括大幅下调工资单和批发/生产者通胀疲软，推低了美国收益率和美元，消除了主要的外部阻力。在国内，8月份5.13%的通胀率意外下跌，表明整体通胀放缓，通胀风险溢价下降。这种抑制通胀的冲动，再加上15%的Selic仍然很高，使巴西的利率差异具有吸引力。在其他地方，博索纳罗审判的政治头条风险仍然是波动的潜在来源，但到目前为止，全球资金转向和国内通胀形势的改善已经超过了这一风险。
The Brazilian real strengthened past 5.4 per US dollar in September, the strongest since June 2024, as clearer prospects of Fed easing drove dollar weakness while still-generous domestic interest rates and improving inflation dynamics attracted foreign capital. Externally, a run of softer US labour and price data, including large downward payroll revisions and weaker wholesale/producer inflation, pushed US yields and the dollar lower, removing the main external headwind. Domestically, August’s 5.13% inflation surprised to the downside, signaling decelerating headline inflation and trimming the inflation risk premium. That disinflationary impulse, together with a still-high Selic at 15%, keeps Brazil’s interest-rate differentials attractive. Elsewhere, political headline risk from the Bolsonaro trial remains a potential source of volatility but has so far been outweighed by the global funding pivot and the improving domestic inflation picture.
