墨西哥比索兑美元汇率跌破20.8,接近2022年3月12月31日的低点20.85,投资者正在为美国当选总统唐纳德·特朗普的就职典礼做准备。围绕特朗普政策的猜测,包括潜在的关税和对移民的更强硬立场,产生了不确定性,抑制了比索的需求前景。在国内,墨西哥的经济指标几乎没有提供支持;尽管10月份的固定投资总额略有上升,但仍远低于过去的高点,表明经济势头疲软。与此同时,尽管美联储理事沃勒暗示有可能更激进地降息,但预计墨西哥银行将在2025年更快地降息200个基点,缩小利率差距,削弱套利交易的吸引力。
The Mexican peso weakened past 20.8 per U.S. dollar, nearing its March 2022 low of 20.85 seen December 31st, as investors braced for US President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration. Speculation surrounding Trump’s policies, including potential tariffs and a tougher stance on immigration, has generated uncertainty, dampening the demand outlook for the peso. Domestically, Mexico's economic indicators have provided little support; although October’s Gross Fixed Investment showed a modest uptick, it remains well below past highs, signaling sluggish economic momentum. Meanwhile, despite Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggesting the possibility of more aggressive rate cuts, the Bank of Mexico is expected to reduce rates more swiftly by as much as 200 basis points in 2025, narrowing the interest rate differential and dampening the appeal of carry trades.