墨西哥比索兑美元汇率升至18.40以上，从10月10日的一个月低点约18.56反弹，因为美联储主席鲍威尔本周的讲话强调了对美联储宽松政策的日益增长的预期，并指出劳动力市场疲软的迹象，消除了对美元的一些支持，缩小了美墨政策差异。与此同时，美国政府停摆已进入第三周，推迟了美国关键数据的发布，否则这些数据可能会锚定利率和市场定位。在国内，尽管墨西哥9月份的年通胀率上升至3.76%，使整体通胀率轻松保持在Banxico的2-4%目标范围内，并加强了央行在9月份降息后继续宽松的意愿，但预计利差将维持套利交易需求。与此同时，明年美墨加协定审查的前景以及墨西哥相对于其他贸易伙伴的关税优势提供了额外的支持。
The Mexican peso strengthened past 18.40 per US dollar, rebounding from a one-month low of about 18.56 on October 10th, as growing expectations of easier Fed policy, underlined by Fed Chair Powell’s comments this week noting signs of labour-market softening, removed some support from the dollar and narrowed the US–Mexico policy differential. At the same time the US government shutdown entered its third week, delaying key US data that might otherwise have anchored rates and market positioning. Domestically, despite Mexico’s annual inflation rising to 3.76% in September, keeping headline inflation comfortably within Banxico’s 2–4% target range and reinforcing the central bank’s willingness to continue easing after its September cut, the rate differential is expected to sustain carry trade demand. Meanwhile, the prospect of the USMCA review next year and Mexico’s tariff advantages versus other trade partners provide additional support.
