墨西哥10年期国债 (Mexico10Y) 加自选

墨西哥比索兑美元汇率跌破18.80，跌至一个月低点，原因是美元普遍反弹，第二季度GDP年化增长3%进一步支撑，这与备受瞩目的美国-欧盟和美国-日本贸易协定相吻合，这些协定限制了关税战的担忧，压倒了墨西哥原本强劲的经济背景。在美国，巨大的增长印刷品强化了市场的信念，即美联储将连续第五次暂停会议。在国内，墨西哥经济在第二季度环比增长0.7%，这是自2024年底以来的最快增速，远远领先于0.4%的共识，而6月份失业率降至2.7%，为2002年以来的最低水平，突显出劳动力市场紧张。Banxico的高利率及其将保持这种状态的预期，使实际收益率对套利交易投资者具有吸引力。虽然这些资金流入提供了一些支持，但它们只是部分缓冲了比索对美元走强的影响。

The Mexican peso slid past 18.80 per USD to one-month lows as a broad rebound in the US dollar, further supported by a 3% annualized GDP surge in Q2, dovetailing with high-profile US–EU and US–Japan trade agreements that capped tariff-war fears, overwhelmed Mexico’s otherwise robust economic backdrop. Stateside, the outsized growth print reinforced market convictions that the Fed will pause for a fifth consecutive meeting. Back home, Mexico’s economy expanded 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, its strongest pace since late 2024 and well ahead of the 0.4% consensus, just as unemployment fell to 2.7% in June, the lowest since 2002, underscoring a tight labor market. Banxico’s high interest rate, and the expectation it will stay that way, keeps real yields attractive for carry-trade investors. While these inflows provide some support, they’ve only partly cushioned the peso from the dollar’s strength.

2025年第二季度，墨西哥国内生产总值经季节性调整后比上一季度增长了0.7%，远高于市场预期的0.4%的增长率，这标志着自2024年第三季度以来最快的增长速度。服务业（0.7%对第一季度-0.1%）和制造业（0.8%对-0.%）实现增长，抵消了第一产业1.3%的暴跌，削减了前两个季度超过6.5%的激增。与前一年相比，墨西哥国内生产总值增长了0.1%。

The Mexican GDP expanded by a seasonally adjusted 0.7% from the previous quarter in the second quarter of 2025, well above market expectations of a 0.4% increase, to mark the sharpest pace of growth since the third quarter of 2024. Growth was carried by the services sector (0.7% vs -0.1% in Q1) and manufacturing (0.8% vs -0.%), which offset the 1.3% plunge for primary industries, trimming surges of over 6.5% in the two previous quarters. From the previous year, the Mexican GDP expanded by a softer 0.1%.

墨西哥比索兑美元汇率跌破18.8，达到一个月低点，因为一系列贸易突破，包括美国-欧盟和美国-日本新协议下15%的标题关税，提振了对美国更强劲增长和美联储稳健的预期。在国内，6月份商品顺差大幅收窄和工业产出疲软加剧了人们对墨西哥出口引擎正在失去动力的担忧，而美国即将到来的关税最后期限则带来了新的不确定性。然而，比索的损失受到墨西哥劳动力市场异常紧张的限制，6月份失业率为2.7%，为2002年以来的最低水平，同时，在粘性核心通胀的支撑下，Banxico利率仍在上升，这共同维持了更高的实际收益率并吸引了套利交易流入。

The Mexican peso weakened past 18.8 per USD, reaching one-month lows as a resurgent US dollar, buoyed by a string of trade breakthroughs, including headline 15% tariffs under the new US–EU and US–Japan pacts, has lifted expectations for stronger US growth and a steadfast Federal Reserve. Domestically, a sharply narrowed June merchandise surplus and softer industrial output compounded concerns that Mexico’s export engines are losing steam just as looming US tariff deadlines inject fresh uncertainty. However, the peso’s losses have been capped by Mexico’s exceptionally tight labor market, unemployment came at 2.7% in June, the lowest since 2002, alongside still-elevated Banxico rates underpinned by sticky core inflation, which together sustain higher real yields and attract carry-trade inflows.

墨西哥在2025年6月录得5.14亿美元的贸易顺差，从一年前的24.1亿美元逆差反弹，但低于市场对6.1亿美元顺差的预期。出口同比增长10.6%，达到540亿美元，非石油商品增长12.4%，其中制成品增长13.5%，汽车出货量增长4.5%。对美国的非石油出口增长了15%，包括汽车（+6%）。相比之下，石油出口下降了30.4%，而农产品（-2.2%）和采掘品（-5.5%）也下降了。进口额从512亿美元攀升至535亿美元，主要原因是非石油采购量增加（5.3%），其中消费品（5.3%）和中间产品（7.1%）占主导地位。然而，资本货物进口下降8.4%，石油进口下降5.4%，石油消费品暴跌21.2%。

Mexico recorded a trade surplus of $514 million in June 2025, rebounding from a $2.41 billion deficit a year earlier but falling short of market expectations for a $610 million surplus. Exports rose 10.6% year-on-year to $54 billion, driven by a 12.4% increase in non-oil goods, including a 13.5% surge in manufactured products and a 4.5% gain in auto shipments. To the US, non-oil exports rose 15%, including autos (+6%). In contrast, oil exports slumped 30.4%, while agricultural (-2.2%) and extractive (-5.5%) goods also declined. Imports climbed to $53.5 billion from $51.2 billion, mainly due to higher non-oil purchases (5.3%), led by consumer (5.3%) and intermediate goods (7.1%). However, imports of capital goods dropped 8.4%, and oil imports fell 5.4%, with oil consumer goods plunging 21.2%.