墨西哥10年期国债 (Mexico10Y) 加自选

7月份，墨西哥比索兑美元汇率超过18.65，为2024年8月中旬以来的最高水平，这是由于外部资金流入增加、美元走软和国内货币政策仍然具有限制性。从外部来看，6月份出乎意料的大规模美国财政计划和特朗普迫在眉睫的关税最后期限削弱了美元，而墨西哥5月份10.3亿美元的贸易顺差和创纪录的55亿美元汇款使硬通货流入该国。在国内，Banxico于6月26日决定将关键利率下调50个基点至8%，同时重申进一步下调将等待稳健的通货紧缩，这保持了有吸引力的实际利率，锚定了比索的收益率差异。此外，由于失业率处于十年来的最低水平2.7%，墨西哥6月份的采购经理人指数为46.3，仍超过该地区大部分地区，比索受益于有弹性的增长指标。

The Mexican peso strengthened past 18.65 per USD in July, its strongest level since mid-August 2024, driven by stronger external inflows, a softer US dollar and a still-restrictive domestic monetary stance. Externally, June’s unexpectedly large US fiscal package and Trump’s looming tariff deadline have dented the dollar, while Mexico’s trade surplus of $1.03 billion in May, and record remittances topping $5.5 billion have kept hard currency flowing into the country. Domestically, Banxico’s June 26th decision to cut its key rate by 50 bps to 8%, while reiterating that further reductions will await solid disinflation, has preserved an attractive real interest rate, anchoring peso-yield differentials. Moreover, with unemployment at a decade-low 2.7% and Mexico’s PMI at 46.3 in June still outpacing most of the region, the peso has benefited from resilient growth indicators.

2025年6月，墨西哥消费者信心降至45.4，低于5月份向下修正的46.5。这一下降反映了家庭对当前经济状况和国家未来前景日益悲观。对墨西哥当前经济形势的评估下降了1.2点，至40.7点，而对该国未来的预期下降了0.9点，至47.9点。在家庭层面，对当前形势的看法下降了0.3个百分点，至51.7，而对未来的预期上升了0.2个百分点，达到57.7。

Consumer confidence in Mexico fell to 45.4 in June 2025, down from a downwardly revised 46.5 in May. The decline reflects growing pessimism among households regarding both current economic conditions and the outlook for the country's future. The assessment of Mexico's current economic situation fell by 1.2 points to 40.7, while expectations for the country's future fell by 0.9 points to 47.9. At the household level, opinions on the current situation worsened by 0.3 points to 51.7 while expectations for the future rose by 0.2 points to 57.7.

2025年4月，墨西哥固定资产投资总额同比暴跌12.5%，较3月份0.2%的跌幅有所加深，这是自2020年10月以来的最大跌幅，比预期的9%跌幅还要大。这是连续第18个月出现收缩。受国内生产（-14.7%）和进口（-16.7%）资本货物大幅下降的推动，机械设备投资下降9.2%。建筑投资下降9.2%，其中非住宅建筑下降13.9%，住宅工程下降3.7%。经季节性调整后，投资下降7.7%，扭转了3月份0.3%的增长。

Gross fixed investment in Mexico plunged 12.5% year-on-year in April 2025, deepening from a 0.2% decline in March and marking the sharpest drop since October 2020—worse than the 9% fall expected. It was the eighteenth consecutive monthly contraction. Investment in machinery and equipment fell 9.2%, driven by sharp declines in both domestically produced (-14.7%) and imported (-16.7%) capital goods. Construction investment dropped 9.2%, led by a 13.9% fall in nonresidential building and a 3.7% decrease in residential works. On a seasonally adjusted basis, investment shrank 7.7%, reversing a 0.3% gain in March.

墨西哥比索兑美元汇率稳定在18.76，接近7月1日创下的2024年8月高点18.74，原因是美元仍然疲软，而投资者消化了更强劲的外部收入和有利的国内货币政策背景。在6月份ADP报告中意外失业3.3万人，推动美联储降息重新定价后，美元加速下跌。与此同时，墨西哥5月份公布了10.3亿美元的贸易顺差，尽管石油运输量下降了35%，但非石油出口增长了1.8%，而汇款流入达到了创纪录的55亿美元。这些资金流入，再加上央行6月26日决定将关键利率下调50个基点至8%，同时仅在通胀消退时才发出进一步降息的信号，提振了人们对比索的信心，并保持了有吸引力的实际利率。国内劳动力指标仍然强劲，失业率仅为2.7%，尽管6月份制造业PMI降至46.3，但仍优于拉丁美洲大部分地区。

The Mexican peso stabilized at 18.76 per USD, near its August 2024 high of 18.74 seen on July 1st, as the US dollar remained subdued while investors digested stronger external receipts and a supportive domestic monetary policy backdrop. The dollar’s decline accelerated after a surprise 33,000-job loss in June’s ADP report fueled Fed rate-cut repricing. At the same time, Mexico posted a $1.03 billion trade surplus in May driven by a 1.8% rise in non-oil exports despite a 35% collapse in oil shipments, while remittance inflows hit a record $5.5 billion. Those inflows, coupled with the central bank’s June 26th decision to trim its key rate by 50 basis points to 8%, while signaling further cuts only as inflation recedes, bolstered confidence in the peso and kept an attractive real interest rate. Domestic labor metrics remain robust, with unemployment at just 2.7%, and although the manufacturing PMI eased to 46.3 in June, it still outperformed most of Latin America.