墨西哥比索兑美元汇率跌破18.80,跌至一个月低点,原因是美元普遍反弹,第二季度GDP年化增长3%进一步支撑,这与备受瞩目的美国-欧盟和美国-日本贸易协定相吻合,这些协定限制了关税战的担忧,压倒了墨西哥原本强劲的经济背景。在美国,巨大的增长印刷品强化了市场的信念,即美联储将连续第五次暂停会议。在国内,墨西哥经济在第二季度环比增长0.7%,这是自2024年底以来的最快增速,远远领先于0.4%的共识,而6月份失业率降至2.7%,为2002年以来的最低水平,突显出劳动力市场紧张。Banxico的高利率及其将保持这种状态的预期,使实际收益率对套利交易投资者具有吸引力。虽然这些资金流入提供了一些支持,但它们只是部分缓冲了比索对美元走强的影响。
The Mexican peso slid past 18.80 per USD to one-month lows as a broad rebound in the US dollar, further supported by a 3% annualized GDP surge in Q2, dovetailing with high-profile US–EU and US–Japan trade agreements that capped tariff-war fears, overwhelmed Mexico’s otherwise robust economic backdrop. Stateside, the outsized growth print reinforced market convictions that the Fed will pause for a fifth consecutive meeting. Back home, Mexico’s economy expanded 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, its strongest pace since late 2024 and well ahead of the 0.4% consensus, just as unemployment fell to 2.7% in June, the lowest since 2002, underscoring a tight labor market. Banxico’s high interest rate, and the expectation it will stay that way, keeps real yields attractive for carry-trade investors. While these inflows provide some support, they’ve only partly cushioned the peso from the dollar’s strength.