墨西哥10年期国债 (Mexico10Y) 加自选

墨西哥比索兑美元汇率升至20.1，从4月8日2022年3月以来的最低水平20.85反弹，原因是美元大幅下跌，在中国对美国商品征收125%关税的美国关税进行积极报复后，美元已跌至2022年以来的最低水平。此举引发了美元的广泛抛售，因为市场重新评估了对美国经济的潜在损害以及长期贸易中断的可能性。然而，特朗普政府随后决定暂时免除部分中国科技产品的关税，这有助于缓解人们对美国即将陷入衰退的担忧，稳定风险情绪，并恢复对墨西哥等依赖出口的经济体持续需求的预期。作为美国制造业和消费市场的主要供应商，墨西哥将受益于美国需求的任何复苏，进一步支持比索的吸引力。

The Mexican peso strengthened toward 20.1 per dollar, rebounding from the lowest since March 2022 of 20.85 on April 8th, due to the sharp decline in the U.S. dollar, which has fallen to its weakest level since 2022 following China’s aggressive retaliation to U.S. tariffs with 125% duties on American goods. The move triggered a broad-based selloff in the dollar, as markets reassessed the potential damage to the U.S. economy and the likelihood of prolonged trade disruption. However, the Trump administration’s subsequent decision to temporarily exempt select Chinese tech products from tariffs helped ease fears of an imminent U.S. recession, stabilizing risk sentiment and reviving expectations for sustained demand in export-reliant economies like Mexico. As a key supplier to U.S. manufacturing and consumer markets, Mexico stands to benefit from any recovery in U.S. demand, further supporting the peso’s appeal.

2025年2月，墨西哥工业生产同比下降1.3%，比上月下降2.9%有所改善，超过了市场预期的3.9%的收缩。制造业产出下降0.3%，跌幅小于1月份0.9%的跌幅，而建筑活动在下降7.0%后反弹0.4%。公用事业产出下降1.2%，扭转了1月份0.6%的增长，采矿产出下降速度更快，为9.2%，而前一个月下降了8.3%。经季节性调整的月度数据显示，2月份工业生产激增2.5%，远远超过普遍估计的0.1%的增长，这是由制造业增长2.9%和建筑业增长2.8%推动的。

Mexico's industrial production declined by 1.3% year-on-year in February 2025, improving from a 2.9% drop in the previous month and surpassing market expectations of a 3.9% contraction. Manufacturing output fell by 0.3%, a smaller decline compared to the 0.9% drop in January, while construction activity rebounded with a 0.4% increase, following a 7.0% decline. Utilities output decreased by 1.2%, reversing a 0.6% gain in January, and mining output dropped at a faster rate of 9.2%, compared to the previous month's 8.3% decline. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial production surged by 2.5% in February, far exceeding the consensus estimate of 0.1% growth, driven by a 2.9% increase in manufacturing and a 2.8% jump in construction.

墨西哥2月份工业产出（年环比）为-1.3%，高于预期（-3.9%）。墨西哥2月份工业产出（年环比）为-1.3%，高于预期（-3.9%）

Mexico Industrial Output (YoY) came in at -1.3%, above expectations (-3.9%) in February.Mexico Industrial Output (YoY) came in at -1.3%, above expectations (-3.9%) in February

墨西哥比索兑美元汇率跌至20.5，4月8日接近2022年3月以来的最低水平20.85，因为美国贸易政策的持续不确定性重新引发了风险规避，并对新兴市场造成了压力。尽管特朗普总统暂停对非报复性伙伴征收新关税90天，短暂提振了市场，但在美中贸易冲突尚未解决和政策背景日益不可预测的情况下，这未能让投资者感到有意义的安心。对于墨西哥这个与美国供应链紧密交织的经济体来说，全球贸易轨迹的不明确对工业活动和资本流动构成了直接威胁。由于短期内没有解决方案，投资者继续转向更安全的资产，在市场经历高度波动和分散的贸易格局时，对比索保持压力。关税已经导致墨西哥工厂停产。随着美国经济衰退的威胁迫在眉睫，墨西哥的出口前景黯淡。

The Mexican peso weakened toward 20.5 per dollar, nearing the lowest since March 2022 of 20.85 on April 8th, as persistent uncertainty over U.S. trade policy reignited risk aversion and weighed on emerging markets. While President Trump’s 90-day suspension of new tariffs on non-retaliatory partners briefly buoyed markets, it failed to meaningfully reassure investors amid the unresolved U.S.-China trade conflict and an increasingly unpredictable policy backdrop. For Mexico—an economy tightly interwoven with U.S. supply chains—the lack of clarity surrounding the trajectory of global trade poses a direct threat to industrial activity and capital flows. With no near-term resolution in sight, investors continue to rotate into safer assets, keeping pressure on the peso as markets navigate a highly volatile and fragmented trade landscape. The tariffs have already resulted in plant shutdowns in Mexico. With the threat of a U.S. recession looming, Mexico’s export prospects have dimmed.