墨西哥10年期国债 (Mexico10Y) 加自选

墨西哥比索在美联储决定前下跌，通胀数据成为焦点。墨西哥比索（MXN）本周初兑美元（USD）下跌约0.58%，这是一个关键的一周，美联储（Fed）准备在5月7日举行货币政策会议，并宣布墨西哥通胀数据。在撰写本文时，美元/墨西哥比索的交易价格为19.67。

Mexican Peso slips ahead of Fed decision, inflation data in focus.The Mexican Peso (MXN) began the week with losses of around 0.58% against the US Dollar (USD) ahead of a crucial week with the Federal Reserve (Fed) preparing to host its monetary policy meeting on May 7 and the announcement of Mexican inflation figures. At the time of writing, the USD/MXN trades at 19.67.

墨西哥比索企稳，美墨紧张局势和政策分歧成为焦点。墨西哥比索企稳，美墨紧张局势和政策分歧成为焦点

Mexican Peso steadies as US-Mexico tension and policy divergence dominate focus.Mexican Peso steadies as US-Mexico tension and policy divergence dominate focus

标准普尔全球墨西哥制造业采购经理人指数从3月份的46.5降至2025年4月的44.8，标志着该行业自2021年2月以来最严重的恶化，并将目前的收缩延长至10个月。美国关税和客户投资下降导致新出口订单出现自2021年初以来的最大跌幅，这反过来又引发了四年多来产量和销售量的最快下降。自2020年11月以来，企业首次对未来产出感到悲观，理由是贸易政策、需求疲软和成本压力。就业人数下降速度加快，公司不再续签合同，并将员工转为兼职。由于比索疲软和关键材料价格上涨，投入成本以两年半以来的最快速度上涨，尽管销售价格通胀仍然温和。采购活动和预生产库存下降，而随着新订单的取消或推迟，未完成的工作量增加。

The S&P Global Mexico Manufacturing PMI fell to 44.8 in April 2025 from 46.5 in March, signaling the sharpest deterioration in the sector since February 2021 and extending the current contraction to ten months. U.S tariffs and declining client investment led to the steepest drop in new export orders since early 2021, which, in turn, triggered the fastest reductions in output and sales volumes in over four years. Businesses grew pessimistic about future output for the first time since November 2020, citing trade policies, weak demand, and cost pressures. Employment fell at a faster pace, with firms not renewing contracts and shifting staff to part-time roles. Input costs rose at the quickest rate in two-and-a-half years due to the weak peso and higher prices for key materials, though selling price inflation remained moderate. Purchasing activity and pre-production inventories declined, while outstanding work volumes grew as new orders were canceled or postponed.

由于美国关税引发的紧张局势，墨西哥制造业信心从上个月向下修正的49.7降至2025年4月的48.5。这标志着自2021年4月以来的最低水平，也是连续第二个月低于50点阈值，表明悲观情绪日益加剧。投资意愿继续下降（34.1比37），对该国经济形势的评估也是如此（48.6比48.8）。对公司现状的乐观情绪也有所减弱（51.7比52.7）。此外，对该公司未来前景的预期从57.5降至56.2，而该国经济前景也恶化了（52.7对52.9）。

Mexico's manufacturing business confidence fell to 48.5 in April 2025, from a downwardly revised 49.7 in the previous month, amid tensions triggered by US tariffs. This marks the lowest level since April 2021 and the second consecutive month below the 50-point threshold, indicating growing pessimism. Willingness to invest continued to decline (34.1 vs 37), as did assessments of the country’s economic situation (48.6 vs 48.8). Optimism about the company’s current situation also weakened (51.7 vs 52.7). Furthermore, expectations for the company's future outlook dropped to 56.2 from 57.5, while the outlook for the country’s economy also deteriorated (52.7 vs 52.9).