巴西10年期国债 (Brazil10Y) 加自选

巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率升至5.35，这得益于与美国贸易风险的缓解、外部资金流入的恢复以及与大宗商品挂钩的基本面因素的弹性。路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦总统和唐纳德·特朗普总统最近的会晤缓解了贸易政策尾部风险，此前卢拉表示，特朗普“保证”了美巴贸易协议，改善了出口流动和外部融资的前景。此后，在言论和筹备谈判解冻的迹象下，市场重新定价了较低的关税风险，降低了支撑巴西经常账户的大宗商品出口受到冲击的可能性。此外，在美国政府持续关闭和美联储降息预期上升的情况下，美元仍然疲软。巴西实际利率仍在上升，这保持了其套利吸引力，而中国经济活动的增强和大宗商品价格的走强进一步支撑了预期的出口收入，加强了雷亚尔的升值。

The Brazilian real strengthened toward 5.35 per US dollar, supported by easing trade risks with the United States, renewed external inflows, and resilient commodity-linked fundamentals. The recent meeting between Presidents Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Donald Trump eased trade-policy tail risks after Lula stated that Trump had “guaranteed” a US–Brazil trade deal, improving prospects for export flows and external financing. Markets have since repriced a lower tariff risk amid signs of thawing rhetoric and preparatory talks, reducing the likelihood of shocks to commodity exports that underpin Brazil’s current account. Additionally, the dollar has remained subdued amid the ongoing US government shutdown and rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Brazil’s still-elevated real interest rates preserve its carry appeal, while stronger Chinese activity and firmer commodity prices further support expected export revenues, reinforcing the real’s appreciation.

周二，Ibovespa指数小幅上涨，徘徊在14.7万点上方，延续了创纪录的涨幅，因为市场正在等待主要的盈利结果。巴西银行（Banco do Brasil）强势上涨，领涨圣保罗交易的大型银行，而Bradesco在本周业绩公布前小幅上涨，Santender小幅下跌。淡水河谷在周四财报公布前也小幅上涨，铁矿石价格上涨和创纪录的产量支撑了对强劲利润的预测。Ambev在业绩公布前下跌了0.7%。Azevedo&Travassos股价上涨5.4%，此前其子公司Heftos与巴西国家石油公司签署了一份价值13亿雷亚尔的合同，该合同上涨0.5%。Brava Energia上涨0.6%，此前摩根大通披露了5.15%的股份，而Três Tentos在宣布与Ultrapar的Ipiranga部门建立生物柴油合作伙伴关系后上涨5.6%。与此同时，更广泛的市场仍然受到美国和巴西在各自总统会晤后达成贸易协议的希望的支撑。

The Ibovespa inched higher to hover above 147,000 on Tuesday, extending record gains as markets awaited major earnings results. Banco do Brasil was firmly higher to lead the large banks traded in Sao Paulo, while Bradesco inched higher and Santender edged lower ahead of their results this week. Vale also inched higher ahead of Thursday's earnings date, with projections of robust profits supported by elevated iron ore prices and record output. Ambev lost 0.7% ahead of its results. Azevedo & Travassos jumped 5.4% after its unit Heftos signed a R$1.3 billion contract with Petrobras, which rose 0.5%. Brava Energia gained 0.6% after JPMorgan disclosed a 5.15% stake, while Três Tentos climbed 5.6% after announcing a biodiesel-linked partnership with Ultrapar’s Ipiranga unit. In the meantime, the broader market remained supported by hopes of a trade deal between the US and Brazil following their respective Presidents meeting.

周一，Ibovespa指数上涨0.6%，收于146969点的新高，市场对特朗普-卢拉在马来西亚举行的东盟峰会上的乐观情绪感到乐观。卢拉表示，特朗普已“保证”达成一项双边贸易协议，暂停目前对选定美国商品征收50%的关税，财政部长斯科特·贝森特报告称，特朗普与Xi之间的谈判“非常成功”，进一步提升了全球风险偏好。市场将这些事态发展解读为关税风险的具体缓解，预期的一揽子计划包括推迟中国稀土出口限制、避免计划中的100%关税和重启中国大豆采购。国内银行领涨，巴西银行上涨1.7%，桑坦德巴西银行上涨1.1%，而周期性股票表现优异，Marfrig上涨7%，路易莎杂志上涨5.6%，西班牙国家银行上涨3.7%。

The Ibovespa rose 0.6% to close at a fresh record high of 146,969 on Monday as optimism from the Trump-Lula meeting at the ASEAN summit in Malaysia filtered through markets. Lula said Trump had “guaranteed” a bilateral trade agreement that would suspend current 50% tariffs on selected U.S. goods, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reported a “very successful framework” for talks between Trump and Xi that further lifted global risk appetite. Markets parsed those developments as a concrete easing of tariff risk, with the prospective package including a delay to China’s rare earth export curbs, avoidance of the planned 100% tariffs and a restart of Chinese soybean purchases. Domestic banks led the advance, Banco do Brasil rose 1.7% and Banco Santander Brasil gained 1.1%, while cyclicals outperformed as Marfrig jumped 7%, Magazine Luiza added 5.6% and Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional climbed 3.7%.

周一，Ibovespa指数上涨近1%，超过14.7万点，创历史新高，因为美国和巴西总统特朗普和卢拉会晤的积极基调支持了贸易和增长前景。卢拉表示，特朗普在马来西亚举行的东盟峰会上“保证”了两国之间的贸易协议，该协议将停止目前对美国选定商品征收50%的关税。主要板块上涨，Itau、Bradesco和巴西银行上涨约1%以支持银行。此外，巴西国家石油公司在报告第三季度石油产量增长18.4%后上涨了0.5%以上。与此同时，在其子公司BRF与沙特阿拉伯PIF支持的清真产品开发公司签署投资协议后，MBRF飙升超过7%。

The Ibovespa rose nearly 1% to above the 147,000 on Monday, a record high, as the positive tone on the meeting between US and Brazilian Presidents Trump and Lula supported the outlook for trade and growth. Lula said Trump “guaranteed” a trade agreement between the two nations during their talks at the ASEAN summit in Malaysia, which would halt the current 50% tariffs on the US on selected goods. Major sectors advanced, with Itau, Bradesco, an Banco do Brasil adding around 1% to support banks. Also, Petrobras advanced more than 0.5% after reporting an 18.4% increase in oil output for Q3. Meanwhile, MBRF soared over 7% after its subsidiary BRF signed an investment deal with Saudi Arabia’s PIF-backed Halal Products Development Company.