巴西10年期国债 (Brazil10Y) 加自选

巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率升至5.65，保持在5月13日的8个月高点5.6附近，因与美国和鹰派央行的贸易流量有望改善。CAGED调查的数据显示，4月份巴西经济增加的就业岗位比预期的要多。同样，全国住户抽样调查的数据表明，4月份季度的失业率远低于预期。强劲的劳动力数据为央行提供了长期将基准政策利率维持在当前限制性水平的余地。在上次会议上，央行将利率上调50个基点至14.75%，为2006年以来的最高水平。反过来，美国一家法院阻止了特朗普总统上个月授权的互惠关税，取消了对巴西10%的关税。尽管如此，在财政部暂时将金融交易税（IOF）上调至3.5%后，国内市场仍存在不安，这引发了人们对政策制定者考虑资本管制的担忧。

The Brazilian real strengthened to 5.65 per USD, remaining near the 8-month high of 5.6 on May 13th amid the outlook of improved trade flows with the US and a hawkish central bank. Data from the CAGED survey showed that more jobs were added to the Brazilian economy than expected in April. Similarly, data from the PNAD showed that the unemployment rate was sharply below expectations for the April quarter. The strong labor data added leeway for the central bank to hold its benchmark policy rate at the current restrictive level for a prolonged period. In its last meeting, the central bank delivered a 50bps hike on the rate to 14.75%, the highest since 2006. In turn, a US court blocked reciprocal tariffs that were mandated by President Trump last month, removing 10% tariffs on Brazil. Still, unease remained on the domestic market after the Ministry of Finance momentarily raised its Tax on Financial Transactions (IOF) to 3.5%, raising concerns that policymakers considered capital controls.

周四，Ibovespa指数在小幅上涨和下跌之间徘徊，保持在139000点附近，表现不如美国股市，此前财政部长费尔南多·哈达德重申，尽管市场反弹和部分逆转，但除了提高金融交易税别无选择。他警告说，如果该措施被完全废除，公共部门可能会关闭。Azul航空公司股价同比下跌70%，在美国市场申请第15章破产保护后，可能会再次跌至历史低点。在数据方面，失业率远低于预期，与昨天的CAGED走势一致，表明劳动力市场强劲。此外，美国法院的一项裁决阻止了特朗普总统取消目前对巴西和其他经济体10%关税的关税措施。肉类生产商出现分化，JBS上涨0.7%，Minerva下跌1%。巴西国家石油公司和巴西航空工业公司开盘走低，后者小幅下跌。银行股也出现分化，ItaúUnibanco小幅上涨，Banco do Brasil大幅下跌。

The Ibovespa swung between small gains and losses to remain near 139,000 on Thursday, underperforming American stocks after Finance Minister Fernando Haddad reiterated that there is no alternative to raising the Financial Transactions Tax, despite market backlash and a partial reversal. He warned of a potential public sector shutdown if the measure is fully annulled. Airline Azul fell 70% year-on-year and may revisit historic lows after filing for Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection in the US Market. On the data front, the unemployment rate was sharply below expectations, aligned with the CAGED beat from yesterday to indicate a strong labor market. Also, a US court ruling blocked tariff measures from President Trump to remove current 10% tariffs on Brazil and other economies. Meat producers were split, with JBS rising 0.7% and Minerva down 1%. Petrobras and Embraer opened lower, the latter edging down. Banks also diverged, with Itaú Unibanco inching higher and Banco do Brasil down firmly.

截至2025年4月的三个月里，巴西的失业率降至6.6%，略高于1月份季度的6.5%，远低于市场预期的6.9%。失业人数与1月份相比保持相对不变，为730万人，就业人数也保持不变，仍接近1.033亿人。与此相一致，劳动力以外的人数没有显著变化，为6680万。最后，本季度实际收入保持稳定，为3426雷亚尔。

The unemployment rate in Brazil fell to 6.6% in the three months ending to April 2025, edging marginally higher from the 6.5% on the January quarter, and well below market expectations of 6.9%. The number of unemployed people remained relatively unchanged from January at 7.3 million, as was the number of employed people, which remained near 103.3 million. In line with this, the number of people outside the labor force did not vary significantly, at 66.8 million. Lastly, real income remained stable in the quarter, at R$3,426.

继上个月增长0.6%之后，巴西未偿还贷款的价值在2025年4月增长了0.7%，达到6.6万亿雷亚尔。这是未偿还信贷存量的第十六个月。这一增长主要是由于向家庭提供的信贷增加了0.8%，向公司提供的信贷也增加了0.5%。在12个月的时间里，信贷扩张加速了11.5%，而前一个月为11.1%，这也是由于家庭交易（12.4%对12.5%）和公司交易（10.2%对8.8%）的增加。

The value of outstanding loans in Brazil grew by 0.7% to R$6.6 trillion in April 2025 following a 0.6% increase in the previous month. This is the sixteenth month of expasion in the outstanding credit stock. This advance was mainly driven by a 0.8% hike in the offer of credit to to families and a 0.5% rise in credit to companies. In a twelve month period, the expansion of credit accelerated by 11.5%, compared to 11.1% in the prior month, also pushed by the rise transactions to households (12.4% vs 12.5%) and companies (10.2% vs 8.8%).