巴西10年期国债 (Brazil10Y) 加自选

周二，Ibovespa指数上涨1.1%，收于135501点，此前美国和日本宣布了一项贸易协议，支持了巴西的贸易敞口和大宗商品密集型行业，全球市场上涨。特朗普总统与日本达成的“大规模”协议，将汽车关税降至15%，以换取5500亿美元的投资承诺，以及他对欧盟谈判代表的邀请，增加了在8月1日截止日期前达成进一步美国贸易协定的可能性，直接支撑了巴西国家石油公司等出口商（上涨2.5%）。与此同时，美国财政部长贝森特关于延长中国8月12日关税休战的建议缓解了人们对供应链中断的担忧。其他表现最好的银行包括巴西银行（上涨2.4%）、桑坦德银行（1.1%）、伊塔乌萨银行（1.2%）和Bradesco银行（1.8%）。

The Ibovespa rose 1.1% to close at 135,501 on Tuesday, following global market gains after the US and Japan announced a trade agreement that bolstered Brazil’s trade-exposed and commodity-heavy sectors. President Trump’s “massive” deal with Japan, cutting auto tariffs to 15% in exchange for a US$550 billion investment pledge, and his invitation to EU negotiators raised the likelihood of further US trade pacts before the August 1st deadline, directly underpinning exporters such as Petrobras (up 2.5%). Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s suggestion of extending China’s August 12th tariff truce eased fears of supply-chain disruptions. Other top performers included Banco do Brasil (up 2.4%), Santander (1.1%), Itaúsa (1.2%) and Bradesco (1.8%).

巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率徘徊在5.55左右，接近6月初的低点，因为投资者正在努力应对美国可能征收的高额关税，而政治动荡加剧了投资者的谨慎态度。特朗普总统威胁从8月1日起对巴西出口征收50%的美国关税，以及关于是否以及如何推迟这些征税的漫长谈判，削弱了人们对巴西资产的兴趣，尽管财政部长贝森特提出了中国和其他贸易伙伴可能延长90天的建议。在国内，货币的疲软因政治不稳定而加剧，最高法院对前总统博索纳罗涉嫌干预选举的调查及其法律团队迅速向莫拉斯大法官提交的文件，使人们对巴西在持续巨额初级赤字的情况下推进急需的财政和养老金改革的能力产生了怀疑。在全球舞台上，美元走强和美国国债收益率上升进一步加剧了新兴市场货币的压力。

The Brazilian real hovered around 5.55 per USD, near early-June lows as investors grappled with the potential for steep US tariffs while political turmoil compounded to stoke caution among investors. President Trump’s threat of 50% US tariffs on Brazilian exports from August 1st, and the drawn-out negotiations over whether and how those levies might be delayed, has sapped appetite for Brazilian assets, even as Treasury Secretary Bessent floated a possible 90-day extension for China and other trading partners. At home, the currency’s weakness has been exacerbated by political instability, the Supreme Court’s probe into former President Bolsonaro’s alleged election interference and his legal team’s rapid filings to Justice Moraes have cast doubt on Brazil’s ability to advance much-needed fiscal and pension reforms amid persistently large primary deficits. On the global stage, a firmer US dollar and higher Treasury yields have further strained emerging-market currencies.

周二，Ibovespa指数上涨0.6%，收于134000点以上，追随美国和日本宣布贸易协议后全球市场的涨势。尽管外部情绪有所改善，但巴西对8月1日开始的美国50%关税的反应仍存在持续的不确定性，这限制了当地的上涨空间。市场参与者仍持谨慎态度，因为卢拉总统的政府正努力与华盛顿谈判有利条件。在国内，巴西国家石油公司表现平平，主要银行上涨（Bradesco+0.7%，ItaúUnibanco+0.2%）。淡水河谷下跌0.3%，盖尔道公司上涨0.8%，巴西航空工业公司下跌0.3%。

The Ibovespa rose 0.6% to trade above 134,000 on Tuesday, tracking gains in global markets after the US and Japan announced a trade agreement. While external sentiment improved, local upside remained capped by persistent uncertainty surrounding Brazil’s response to the 50% US tariff set to begin August 1st. Market participants remain cautious as President Lula’s government struggles to negotiate favorable terms with Washington. Domestically, Petrobras showed little movement, and major banks went up (Bradesco +0.7%, Itaú Unibanco +0.2%). Vale fell 0.3%, Gerdau gained 0.8%, while Embraer lost 0.3%.

周一，Ibovespa指数下跌0.1%，收于134036点，投资者在8月1日截止日期前对美欧贸易谈判的谨慎乐观情绪与日益加剧的政治和监管阻力之间取得了平衡。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特强调，华盛顿重视任何协议的实质内容，而不是时间表，任何延期都由特朗普总统决定，而卢拉总统谴责贸易武器化是“胁迫和勒索”，这是对美国最近关税威胁的尖锐批评。这些摩擦加剧了从8月1日起对巴西出口征收50%关税以及最高法院就博索纳罗的豁免权争论所产生的不确定性。在企业层面，淡水河谷上涨2%，受北京水电刺激政策推动铁矿石价格走强，巴西国家石油公司在原油基准稳定的情况下上涨0.5%，但涨幅被WEG（-1.1%）和Lojas Renner（-1.5%）、Natura（-1.8%）和Hypermarcas（-1.9%）等消费品牌的亏损所抵消。

The Ibovespa fell 0.1% to close at 134,036 on Monday as investors balanced cautious optimism in US–EU trade talks ahead of the August 1st deadline with mounting political and regulatory headwinds. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized that Washington values the substance of any deal over its timetable, leaving any extension at President Trump’s discretion, while President Lula condemned the weaponization of trade as “coercion and blackmail,” a pointed critique of recent US tariff threats. Those frictions compound the uncertainty generated by looming 50% duties on Brazilian exports from August 1st and Supreme Court wrangling over Bolsonaro’s immunity. On the corporate stage, Vale rose 2% on firmer iron-ore prices driven by Beijing’s hydroelectric stimulus and Petrobras added 0.5% amid steady crude benchmarks, but gains were offset by losses at WEG (–1.1%) and consumer names such as Lojas Renner (–1.5%), Natura (–1.8%) and Hypermarcas (–1.9%).