巴西10年期国债 (Brazil10Y) 加自选

周五，Ibovespa指数下跌0.2%，收于133526点，因巴西出口和大宗商品为主的基准面临贸易战紧张局势升级的不利因素。随着特朗普总统对巴西商品征收的50%关税将在几天后生效，农业综合企业、矿业和制造业公司正在为大幅提高出口关税做准备，卢拉誓言“不惜一切代价”捍卫国家主权以及美国外交官对战略矿产的提议加剧了这种担忧，这两者都加剧了政策的不确定性。雪上加霜的是，华盛顿一直在为征收关税准备紧急法律理由，并威胁要对巴西官员实施制裁。与此同时，7月中旬的通胀率同比加速至5.3%，高于预期，突显出持续的价格压力，使Copom无法在短期内降息。淡水河谷（-1.8%）、桑坦德银行（-1.4%）和Companhia Sanea（-1.4%”）领跌。Ibovespa指数本周小幅上涨0.1%。

The Ibovespa slid 0.2% to close at 133,526 on Friday, as Brazil’s export- and commodity-heavy benchmark faced headwinds from escalating trade-war tensions. With President Trump’s 50% tariff on Brazilian goods set to take effect in days, agribusiness, mining and manufacturing firms are bracing for sharply higher export duties, a concern amplified by Lula’s vow to defend national sovereignty “at all costs” and US diplomats’ overtures on strategic minerals, both of which have intensified policy uncertainty. Compounding the strain, Washington has been readying emergency legal justifications for tariffs and threatening sanctions against Brazilian officials. Meanwhile, mid-July inflation accelerated to 5.3% year-on-year, above forecasts and highlighting persistent price pressures that preclude any near-term rate relief from Copom. Vale (-1.8%), Banco Santander (-1.4%) and Companhia Sanea (-1.4%) led the declines. The Ibovespa eked out a modest 0.1% gain on the week.

巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率跌破5.55，接近6月初的低点，因为美元从最近的低谷中小幅反弹，这得益于华盛顿和布鲁塞尔可能很快同意15%的基准关税的报道以及令人惊讶的弹性美国劳动力市场数据。在国内，巴西的通货膨胀率在7月中旬同比加速至5.3%，高于预期，有效地排除了COPOM近期降息的可能性。卢拉总统对国家主权的日益强硬的捍卫以及美国对巴西出口征收50%关税的前景加剧了政策的不确定性，这增加了压力。然而，雷亚尔的损失已被巴西仍然很大的息差所遏制，预计COPOM将把Selic维持在15%的峰值，以及随着全球套利交易投资者继续追逐巴西有吸引力的收益率，新的外汇流入。

The Brazilian real weakened past 5.55 per USD, approaching early-June lows, as the U.S. dollar staged a modest rebound off recent troughs, underpinned by reports that Washington and Brussels may soon agree to a 15% baseline tariff and by surprisingly resilient U.S. labor-market data. Domestically, Brazil’s inflation accelerated to 5.3% year-on-year in mid-July, above expectations and effectively ruling out any near-term rate cuts by COPOM. Adding to the pressure, President Lula’s increasingly strident defense of national sovereignty and the prospect of 50% US tariffs on Brazilian exports have heightened policy uncertainty. However, the real’s losses have been contained by Brazil’s still-wide interest-rate differential, COPOM is expected to hold the Selic at a 15% peak, and by renewed foreign-exchange inflows, as global carry-trade investors continue to chase Brazil’s attractive yields.

2025年7月上半月，巴西月中消费者价格指数上涨0.33%，高于上月的0.26%，略高于市场预期的0.3%。在接受调查的九组中，有五组出现了增长。住房领涨，上涨0.98%，其次是交通（0.67%）、个人支出（0.25%）和医疗保健（0.21%）。不利的一面是，食品和饮料（-0.06%）、家居用品（-0.02%）和服装（-0.1%）的价格下跌。年中月通胀率达到5.3%，高于6月份的5.27%，也超过了5.26%的预测。

Brazil’s mid-month consumer prices rose 0.33% in the first half of July 2025, accelerating from 0.26% in the previous month and slightly above market expectations of 0.3%. Out of the nine groups surveyed, five posted increases. Housing led the gains with a 0.98% rise, followed by transport (0.67%), personal expenses (0.25%), and healthcare (0.21%). On the downside, prices dropped for food and beverages (-0.06%), household articles (-0.02%), and clothing (-0.1%). Annual mid-month inflation reached 5.3%, up from 5.27% in June, also topping forecasts of 5.26%.

由于贸易和收入平衡的恶化，巴西的经常账户赤字从一年前的34亿美元扩大到2025年6月的51亿美元。货物贸易顺差从2024年6月的57亿美元收窄至53亿美元，出口增长0.9%至293亿美元，进口增长2.8%至240亿美元。服务账户出现45亿美元赤字，略高于一年前的44亿美元缺口。与此同时，初级收入赤字急剧扩大至62亿美元，比2024年6月的49亿美元增长25.5%。次级收入盈余小幅增加3300万美元。截至6月的12个月滚动计算，经常账户赤字达到731亿美元，占GDP的3.42%，高于2024年5月的714亿美元（3.35%）和6月的289亿美元（1.28%）。

Brazil’s current account deficit widened to USD 5.1 billion in June 2025 from USD 3.4 billion a year earlier, driven by a deterioration in the trade and income balances. The goods trade surplus narrowed to USD 5.3 billion from USD 5.7 billion in June 2024, as exports rose 0.9% to USD 29.3 billion while imports climbed 2.8% to USD 24 billion. The services account posted a USD 4.5 billion deficit, slightly above the USD 4.4 billion gap a year earlier. Meanwhile, the primary income deficit widened sharply to USD 6.2 billion, up 25.5% from USD 4.9 billion in June 2024. The secondary income surplus increased modestly by USD 33 million. On a rolling 12-month basis through June, the current account deficit reached USD 73.1 billion, or 3.42% of GDP—up from USD 71.4 billion (3.35%) in May and USD 28.9 billion (1.28%) in June 2024.