巴西10年期国债 (Brazil10Y) 加自选

周五，Ibovespa指数上涨0.2%，收于144201点，这得益于积极的公司消息和大宗商品生产商的强势，尽管私营部门活动的急剧收缩推高了人们对鸽派央行的预期。巴西航空工业公司股价上涨1.9%，此前该公司报告第三季度交付62架飞机，高于去年同期的59架，商用飞机交付量增长25%，达到八年来第三季度的最高水平。WEG股价上涨0.9%，因其加速向欧洲电动汽车充电市场扩张，并预计明年初当地电池充电器的销量。Suzano Papel e Celulose、Raia Drogasil和TOTVS也表现出色，分别上涨1.1%、3.8%和1.9%。标准普尔全球巴西综合采购经理人指数从8月份的48.8降至9月份的46.0，为近四年半来最快的恶化，突显出新订单、产出和服务活动普遍放缓，并强化了对宽松政策的押注。

The Ibovespa rose 0.2% to close at 144,201 on Friday on positive company news and strength among commodity producers even as a sharp contraction in private sector activity pushed expectations for a dovish Central Bank. Embraer gained 1.9% after reporting 62 aircraft deliveries in the third quarter, up from 59 a year earlier, with commercial plane deliveries up 25% to their strongest third-quarter level in eight years. WEG advanced 0.9% as it accelerates expansion into Europe’s EV charging market and expects local battery charger sales early next year. Suzano Papel e Celulose, Raia Drogasil and TOTVS also outperformed, adding 1.1%, 3.8% and 1.9% respectively. S&P Global’s composite PMI for Brazil fell to 46.0 in September from 48.8 in August, the fastest deterioration in nearly four and a half years, underscoring a broad slowdown in new orders, output and services activity and reinforcing bets on easier policy.

巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率从2024年6月的5.28高点回落至5.35，这是9月23日的高点，因为市场在国内活动急剧放缓后提前定价，央行也采取了更大的宽松政策。标准普尔全球9月份的综合采购经理人指数降至46.0，为近四年半来最快的恶化，这表明新订单、产出和服务收入的收缩削弱了短期增长和企业现金流，并降低了对实物资产的需求，即使Selic仍在上升。Copom的沟通强调了数据依赖性，并为政策灵活性敞开了大门，市场将这一立场解释为允许比先前预期更快的降息。私营部门调查和经济学家民意调查已将预测中值转向2026年初的削减，市场定价也相应调整。

The Brazilian real strengthened toward 5.35 per US dollar pulling away from its June 2024 high of 5.28 seen September 23rd as markets moved to price earlier and larger easing by the central bank after a sharp slowdown in domestic activity. S&P Global’s composite PMI fell to 46.0 in September, the fastest deterioration in nearly four and a half years, signalling contracting new orders, output and services receipts that weaken near-term growth and corporate cash flows and reduce demand for real assets even with the Selic still elevated. Copom’s communications emphasised data dependence and left the door open to policy flexibility, a stance markets interpreted as permitting rate cuts sooner than previously expected. Private-sector surveys and economist polls have shifted median forecasts toward cuts in early 2026 and market pricing has adjusted accordingly.

周五，Ibovespa指数小幅上涨，保持在144000以上，这得益于积极的企业消息和大宗商品生产商的一些推动。巴西航空工业公司上涨1.9%，此前该公司报告第三季度交付62架飞机，高于去年同期的59架，商用飞机增长25%，达到八年来第三季度的最高水平。WEG上涨1.4%，进军欧洲电动汽车充电市场，预计明年初将在当地销售电池充电器。巴西国家石油公司（+0.3%）上涨，油价企稳，并与Azevedo&Travassos签订了新的氢气装置合同。淡水河谷（+0.2%）、钢铁制造商CSN（+1.3%）和Gerdau（+0.7%）上涨，因中国对必和必拓货物的要求支撑了铁矿石。力拓法院驳回了Oi暂停服务过渡和董事会免职裁决的上诉后，Oi暴跌7.5%。与此同时，巴西的服务业采购经理人指数从8月份的49.3降至2025年9月的46.3，这标志着近四年半来的最大收缩。

The Ibovespa inched higher to stay above 144,000 on Friday with support from positive corporate news and some traction from commodity producers. Embraer rose 1.9% after reporting 62 aircraft deliveries in Q3, up from 59 a year earlier, with commercial planes up 25% to the highest third-quarter level in eight years. WEG advanced 1.4% as it expands into Europe’s EV charging market, with local battery charger sales expected early next year. Petrobras (+0.3%) gained as oil prices steadied and after contracting Azevedo & Travassos for a new hydrogen unit. Vale (+0.2%) and steelmakers CSN (+1.3%) and Gerdau (+0.7%) rose as China’s bar on BHP cargoes supported iron ore. Oi tumbled 7.5% after a Rio court denied its appeal to suspend a ruling ordering a transition of services and removal of its board. Meanwhile, Brazil's services PMI fell to 46.3 in September 2025 from 49.3 in August, signaling the joint-sharpest contraction in nearly four-and-a-half years.

标准普尔全球巴西服务业采购经理人指数从8月份的49.3降至2025年9月的46.3，标志着近四年半（相当于7月份）的联合最大收缩。新业务连续第六个月下降，需求疲软被认为是主要拖累因素，尽管收缩速度是自6月以来最温和的。就业人数三个月来首次上升，公司称员工调整和销售扩张，但创造的就业机会微乎其微。商业情绪保持积极，尽管在金融担忧、政治和高利率的影响下，信心低于长期趋势。投入成本通胀降至10个月低点，但仍处于高位。

The S&P Global Brazil Services PMI fell to 46.3 in September 2025 from 49.3 in August, signaling the joint-sharpest contraction in nearly four-and-a-half years (equal to July). New business declined for the sixth month, with demand weakness cited as the main drag, though the pace of contraction was the softest since June. Employment rose for the first time in three months, with firms citing staff adjustments and sales expansion, but job creation was only marginal. Business sentiment stayed positive, though confidence slipped below its long-run trend amid financial concerns, politics, and high interest rates. Input cost inflation eased to a 10-month low but remained elevated.