巴西6个月期国债 (Brazil6M) 加自选

周五，Ibovespa指数小幅上涨，收于153938点的历史新高，市场在宏观经济背景改善的希望下评估了一批企业收益。10月份，国内生产者价格指数一年多来首次下跌，这增加了人们的希望，即消费者的通货紧缩可能会使央行明年开始降息。随着长期基准利率的下降，银行收盘走高，Itau、Bradesco和Santander Brasil的涨幅在2%至0.5%之间。随着原油价格的反弹，能源股也大幅上涨，Prio、Vibra和Ultrapar的涨幅均超过4%。与此同时，巴西国家石油公司在公布本季度利润增长后上涨了3.4%，因为原油产量的增加抵消了欧佩克+成员国一系列增产导致的基准价格在此期间的下滑。

The Ibovespa edged higher to close at a record high of 153,938 on Friday as markets assessed a batch of corporate earnings amid hopes of an improving macroeconomic backdrop. Domestic producer prices fell for the first time in over one year in October, raising hopes that disinflation for consumers may allow the central bank to start cutting interest rates next year. Banks closed higher as long-dated benchmark rates dropped, with Itau, Bradesco, and Santander Brasil adding between 2% and 0.5%. Energy stocks also surged amid the rebound in crude oil prices, with Prio, Vibra, and Ultrapar adding more than 4% each. Meanwhile, Petrobras rose 3.4% after posting a growth in profit for the quarter, as an increase in crude oil production offset the slide in benchmark prices in the period due to a series of output hikes by OPEC+ members.

周五，投资者评估收益报告时，Ibovespa指数跌至153000以下，创下历史新高。Suzano股价下跌0.8%，此前该公司公布第三季度净收入19.6亿雷亚尔，同比下降39%，调整后息税折旧摊销前利润为52亿雷亚尔。此外，Energisa股价下跌1.9%，第三季度净利润为6.484亿雷亚尔，下跌10.8%。同样，阿萨伊的净收入为1.95亿雷亚尔，下降了1.5%，损失了1%。从好的方面来看，巴西国家石油公司上涨0.2%，第三季度净收入为60.2亿美元，增长2.7%，收入为235亿美元。Alpargatas在第三季度净收入1.713亿雷亚尔时上涨了8%，增长了199%，息税折旧摊销前利润增长了87%。与此同时，巴西10月份的贸易顺差达到69.6亿美元，同比增长70%。

The Ibovespa was below the flatline to trade below 153,000 on Friday after reaching a record high, as investors assessed earnings reports. Suzano dropped 0.8% after reporting 3Q25 net income of R$1.96 billion, down 39% year-on-year, with adjusted EBITDA at R$5.2 billion, down 20%. Also, Energisa fell 1.9% on a 3Q25 net income of R$648.4 million, down 10.8%. Likewise, Assaí lost 1% after net income of R$195 million, down 1.5%. On the upside, Petrobras gained 0.2% with 3Q25 net income of US$6.02 billion, up 2.7%, and revenue at US$23.5 billion. Alpargatas jumped 8% on 3Q25 net income of R$171.3 million, up 199%, and EBITDA up 87%. Meanwhile, Brazil’s trade surplus reached US$6.96 billion in October, up 70% from a year earlier.

继8月份下降0.21%之后，巴西生产者价格指数在2025年9月环比下降0.25%，标志着生产者价格指数连续第八次下降。24项工业活动中有12项价格下跌，其中木材（-3.08%）、服装（-2.29%）和其他化学产品（-1.75%）跌幅最大。食品价格下跌0.4%，连续五个月下跌。纸张和纸浆下降0.85%，机械设备下降1.17%。相比之下，印刷业上涨3.59%，采矿业上涨0.53%，石油炼制和生物燃料上涨0.21%，制药上涨1.49%，冶金微涨0.14%，机动车上涨0.50%。按主要经济类别划分，资本货物下降0.45%，中间产品下降0.60%，而消费品增长0.29%。生产者价格同比下降0.4%。

Brazil’s producer prices fell 0.25% month-on-month in September 2025, following a 0.21% drop in August, marking the eighth consecutive decline in the PPI. Prices decreased in 12 of 24 industrial activities, led by wood (-3.08%), apparel (-2.29%), and other chemical products (-1.75%). Food prices fell 0.4%, extending their losing streak to five months. Paper and pulp dropped 0.85%, while machinery and equipment were down 1.17%. In contrast, printing rose 3.59%, mining gained 0.53%, petroleum refining and biofuels increased 0.21%, pharmaceuticals advanced 1.49%, metallurgy edged up 0.14%, and motor vehicles rose 0.50%. By major economic category, capital goods declined 0.45%, intermediate goods 0.60%, while consumer goods increased 0.29%. Year-on-year, producer prices fell 0.4%.

周四，Ibovespa指数小幅上涨，收于153338点，创下新纪录，因为总体上积极的收益和央行稳定的Selic立场相结合，维持了买入。企业新闻是当天的引擎，Axia上涨了1%，尽管调整后的净利润大幅下降，因为息税折旧摊销前利润超出预期，Engie Brasil在第三季度调整后利润增长9.8%后上涨了1.6%，Vivara在净收入激增64.1%和强劲的息税折旧及摊销前利润超过预期的情况下上涨了2%。巴西国家石油公司收盘持平，而其他一批记者则将价格下调，Cogna下跌1.3%，Fleury和Assai各上涨约0.3%，Caixa Seguridade上涨1.3%，Renner和Magazine Luiza走弱，Suzano几乎没有变化。Minerva下跌13.5%，净利润低于预期，Brava Energia在季度利润暴跌75.8%后下跌。英国央行决定将基准利率维持在15%，并重申利率将在一段持续的时间内保持高位，这为当地固定收益提供了支撑，并帮助稳定了股市的反弹。

The Ibovespa rose marginally higher to close at a fresh record of 153,338 on Thursday as broadly positive earnings and the central bank’s steady Selic stance combined to sustain buying. Corporate news was the day’s engine with Axia up 1% despite a large drop in adjusted net profit because EBITDA beat estimates, Engie Brasil climbed 1.6% after a 9.8% rise in Q3 adjusted profit, and Vivara jumped 2% on a 64.1% surge in net income and a strong EBITDA beat. Petrobras closed flat while a raft of other reporters moved the tape with Cogna down 1.3%, Fleury and Assaí up about 0.3% each, Caixa Seguridade up 1.3%, Renner and Magazine Luiza weaker, Suzano little changed. Minerva fell 13.5% after net income missed expectations and Brava Energia slid after a 75.8% plunge in quarterly profit. The BCB’s decision to hold the Selic at 15% and reiterate that rates will remain high for a sustained period kept the backdrop supportive for local fixed income and helped steady the rally in the equity market.