巴西6个月期国债 (Brazil6M) 加自选

2025年3月，巴西的贸易顺差增长了13.8%，达到82亿美元，从上个月2022年初以来的首次贸易逆差反弹。出口同比增长5.5%，达到291.8亿美元，其中制成品出货量激增10.1%，达到153.2亿美元，农产品出口飙升16%，达到82.2亿美元，而采掘业出货量下降15.3%，达到54.8亿美元。与此同时，进口小幅增长2.6%，达到210.2亿美元，其中制造业采购增长4.8%，达到193.6亿美元，农产品进口增长22.8%，达到5.8亿美元。

Brazil's trade surplus rose by 13.8% to $8.2 billion in March 2025, rebounding from the first trade gap since early 2022 in the previous month. Exports rose by 5.5% year-on-year to $29.18 billion, driven by a 10.1% surge in manufactured goods shipments to $15.32 billion, and agricultural exports soaring 16% to $8.22 billion, while extractive industry shipments fell 15.3% to $5.48 billion. Meanwhile, imports edged 2.6% higher to $21.02 billion, led by a 4.8% increase in manufacturing purchases to $19.36 billion and a 22.8% rise in agricultural imports to $0.58 billion.

10年期巴西政府债券收益率跌至14.7%，从3月底的近一个月高点15.11%回落，因为投资者在全球贸易紧张局势升级的情况下寻求庇护。特朗普总统的关税和中国全面的报复措施加剧了风险规避，引发了人们对全球经济放缓的担忧，推动了对避险资产的需求，并压低了收益率。这种广泛的下降因各国央行放松货币政策以抵消预期的经济放缓的压力而进一步加剧。在国内，尽管财政整顿取得了一些进展，反映在1月份1041亿雷亚尔的基本盈余和公共债务总额降至国内生产总值的75.3%，但财政问题继续促使投资者要求高风险溢价。

The yield on 10-year Brazilian government bonds fell toward 14.7%, retreating from a near one-month high of 15.11% at the end of March, as investors sought refuge amid escalating global trade tensions. Heightened risk aversion, fueled by President Trump’s tariffs and China’s sweeping retaliatory measures, has spurred fears of a global slowdown, driving demand for safe-haven assets and pushing yields lower. This broad decline is further compounded by pressures on central banks to ease monetary policy to offset the anticipated economic slowdown. Domestically, despite some progress in fiscal consolidation, reflected in a primary surplus of R$ 104.1 billion and a reduction in gross public debt to 75.3% of GDP in January, fiscal concerns continue to drive investors to demand high risk premiums.

巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率跌破5.82，从4月3日触及的2024年10月以来的最高水平5.63回落，因为不断升级的全球贸易紧张局势引发了风险资产的大幅回落，并对大宗商品挂钩货币造成了沉重压力。巴西最初受益于美国关税的有限敞口及其作为中国主要农业和能源供应国的战略作用。然而，中国对美国进口商品征收34%的报复性关税，大大加剧了人们对全球经济放缓的担忧，压低了大宗商品价格，侵蚀了巴西的出口前景。这种外部恶化削弱了此前支撑雷亚尔的强劲贸易顺差的预期。与此同时，波动加剧给巴西的国内政策轨迹蒙上了阴影：随着通胀预期的广泛锚定和央行接近紧缩周期的结束，进一步加息的空间正在缩小。

The Brazilian real weakened past 5.82 per USD, retreating from its strongest level since October 2024 of 5.63 touched on April 3rd, as escalating global trade tensions triggered a sharp pullback from risk assets and weighed heavily on commodity-linked currencies. Brazil had initially benefited from limited exposure to U.S. tariffs and its strategic role as a key agricultural and energy supplier to China. However, China’s sweeping 34% retaliatory tariff on U.S. imports has dramatically heightened fears of a global slowdown, driving down commodity prices and eroding Brazil’s export outlook. This external deterioration has dampened expectations for strong trade surpluses that had previously underpinned the real. At the same time, heightened volatility is clouding Brazil’s domestic policy trajectory: with inflation expectations broadly anchored and the central bank nearing the end of its tightening cycle, the scope for additional rate hikes is narrowing.

周五，Ibovespa指数暴跌2.5%以上，跌破12.8万点，为每周近3%的跌幅奠定了基础，因为不断升级的贸易紧张局势扰乱了全球市场。美国的关税，加上中国对美国商品征收34%的报复性关税，迫使投资者避险。主要行业，特别是能源和大宗商品，受到了明显的影响，在油价暴跌和大宗商品需求更广泛收缩的情况下，巴西国家石油公司和淡水河谷等主要参与者的股价分别下跌了4%和3%以上。在国内，由于对经济衰退的担忧，美联储和欧洲央行预期降息的不确定性，再加上地缘政治紧张局势和巴西贸易政策的混合信号，进一步抑制了市场活动，导致大多数股票交易大幅下跌，因为投资者准备应对威胁全球增长和需求的额外贸易战不确定性。

The Ibovespa plunged more than 2.5% to fall below the 128,000 level on Friday, setting the stage for a near 3% weekly loss as escalating trade tensions disrupted global markets. U.S. tariffs, compounded by China’s retaliatory 34% levy on American goods, have forced investors into risk-off positions. Major sectors, particularly energy and commodities, have suffered markedly with key players such as Petrobras and Vale declining over 4% and 3%, respectively, amid plummeting oil prices and a broader contraction in commodity demand. Domestically, uncertainty over anticipated rate cuts by the Fed and ECB amid recession fears—coupled with geopolitical tensions and mixed signals from Brazilian trade policies—has further dampened market activity, leaving most equities trading sharply lower as investors brace for additional trade war uncertainties that threaten global growth and demand.