巴西6个月期国债 (Brazil6M) 加自选

周三，Ibovespa指数徘徊在126200点的水平之上，在主要成分上涨的支撑下，延续了第二个交易日的涨幅，同时投资者分析了最新的私营部门活动数据。WEG、巴西银行和Rede D'Or的表现优于其他银行，涨幅在1.1%至1.3%之间。与此同时，在摩根士丹利将其评级上调至“买入”，将目标价上调34%，并强调了强劲的盈利能力、去杠杆化和强劲的现金流前景后，苏萨诺的股价上涨了约2%。在经济方面，巴西的综合采购经理人指数从10月的55.9降至11月的53.5，这表明私营部门增长放缓但仍然稳健，主要受服务业的推动。

The Ibovespa hovered above the flatline at the 126,200 level on Wednesday, extending gains for a second session, supported by advances among major constituents, while investors analyzed the latest private sector activity data. WEG, Banco do Brasil, and Rede D'Or outperformed with gains ranging from 1.1% to 1.3%. Meanwhile, Suzano's shares rose around 2% after Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating to "buy," raised its target price by 34%, and highlighted robust profitability, deleveraging, and strong cash flow prospects. On the economic front, Brazil’s composite PMI fell to 53.5 in November from 55.9 in October, signaling slower but still solid private sector growth, primarily driven by services.

标准普尔全球巴西服务业采购经理人指数从10月份的56.2降至2024年11月的53.6，反映出服务业活动连续第14个月放缓但仍稳健扩张。受金融和保险子行业需求疲软的推动，新订单增长放缓至8月以来的最慢速度，而运输、信息和通信引领了产出和销售的增长。投入成本通胀放缓至五个月低点，但仍处于高位，企业将支出上升归因于食品、燃料和化学品价格上涨以及美元走强。销售价格通胀也有所缓解，但仍处于高位。尽管需求强劲，商业信心增强，但公司没有大量招聘，而是专注于在高成本和高借贷利率下保持现金流。

The S&P Global Brazil Services PMI fell to 53.6 in November 2024 from 56.2 in October, reflecting a slower but still solid expansion in service sector activity for the 14th consecutive month. Growth in new orders eased to its slowest pace since August, driven by weaker demand in the Finance & Insurance sub-sector, while Transport, Information, and Communication led gains in output and sales. Input cost inflation moderated to a five-month low but remained high, with firms attributing rising expenses to higher food, fuel, and chemical prices and the strong US dollar. Selling price inflation also eased but stayed elevated. Despite robust demand and improved business confidence, firms refrained from significant hiring, focusing on preserving cash flows amid high costs and borrowing rates.

标准普尔巴西全球综合采购经理人指数从10月份的55.9降至2024年11月的53.5，表明私营部门增长放缓但仍然稳健。尽管销售增长放缓，但服务业引领了新订单的扩张，而工厂订单的增长速度与10月份相似。就业增长仍然疲软，为近一年来第二慢，商品生产商在创造就业机会方面表现优于服务提供商。投入成本和产出费用通胀有所缓解，但仍在上升，服务业的成本压力更加明显，而制造业的销售价格上涨更快。

The S&P Global Composite PMI for Brazil fell to 53.5 in November 2024 from 55.9 in October, signaling slower but still solid private sector growth. The service sector led the expansion in new orders, despite moderating sales growth, while factory orders rose at a pace similar to October. Employment growth remained subdued, marking its second-slowest pace in nearly a year, with goods producers outperforming service providers in job creation. Input cost and output charge inflation eased but remained elevated, with cost pressures more pronounced in services, while manufacturing experienced a faster rise in selling prices.

2024年10月，巴西的工业生产在一个月内下降了0.2%，此前一个月向下修正了1%的增长，与市场预期的0.2%的增长背道而驰。这标志着工业产出在连续两个月增长后首次下降，因为受访的25个工业部门中有6个报告了下降。最显著的负面影响来自焦炭、石油产品和生物燃料，10月份下降了2.0%，而饮料行业（-1.1%）和采掘业（-0.2%）也产生了负面影响。从积极的一面来看，机动车、拖车和车身（+7.1%）的影响最大。其他主要贡献来自服装和配饰（14.1%）、化学品（2.8%）、电机和设备（5.4%）、纸浆和纸制品（3.4%）、冶金（2.1%）和杂项产品（7.4%）。10月份工业生产同比增长5.8%，高于9月份的3.4%，几乎与5.9%的预测一致。

Brazil's industrial production fell by 0.2% over a month in October 2024, following a downwardly revised 1% rise in the prior month and defying market estimates of a 0.2% increase. This marks the first drop in industrial output after two consecutive months of growth, as six of the 25 industrial sectors surveyed reported declines. The most significant negative impact came from coke, petroleum products, and biofuels, which fell by 2.0% in October, while the beverage sector (-1.1%) and extractive industries (-0.2%) also contributed negatively. On the positive side, motor vehicles, trailers, and bodywork (+7.1%) had the biggest impact. Other significant contributions came from clothing and accessories (14.1%), chemicals (2.8%), electrical machinery and equipment (5.4%), pulp and paper products (3.4%), metallurgy (2.1%), and miscellaneous products (7.4%). Yearly, industrial production climbed by 5.8% in October, up from 3.4% in September and almost in line with the 5.9% forecast.