巴西6个月期国债 (Brazil6M) 加自选

周二早盘，Ibovespa指数徘徊在139000点附近，随着投资者在以色列和伊朗之间紧张局势升级的情况下表现出风险规避情绪而波动，目前已进入第五天。全球市场也对特朗普总统提前离开七国集团峰会的消息做出了反应，理由是中东问题。投资者等待美联储和巴西央行周三的利率决定。预计英国央行将把利率稳定在14.75%。随着众议院批准了一项推翻政府法令的法案的紧急投票，焦点仍然是金融交易税的上调。在企业方面，巴西国家石油公司上涨1.3%，而淡水河谷下跌1%。主要银行的交易情况喜忧参半：巴西银行（-0.2%）、Bradesco（+0.5%）、Itaú（+0.2%）、桑坦德银行（-0.20%）。Azul上涨2%，而巴西航空工业公司（-1.1%）、CSN（-1.7%）和Gerdau（-0.4%）下跌。波动性指数上涨2.9%。

The Ibovespa hovered near 139,000 in early Tuesday trading, fluctuating as investors showed risk aversion amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, now in their fifth day. Global markets also reacted to news that President Trump left the G7 summit early, citing Middle East concerns. Investors await Wednesday’s interest rate decisions from the Fed and Brazil’s central bank. The BCB is expected to hold rates steady at 14.75%. The focus remains on the tax on financial transactions hike, as the Deputies Chamber approved an urgent vote on a bill to overturn the government’s decree. On the corporate front, Petrobras rose 1.3%, while Vale fell 1%. Major banks traded mixed: Banco do Brasil (-0.2%), Bradesco (+0.5%), Itaú (+0.2%), Santander (-0.2%). Azul gained 2%, while Embraer (-1.1%), CSN (-1.7%), and Gerdau (-0.4%) declined. The volatility index is up 2.9%.

周一，Ibovespa指数上涨1.5%，收于139256点，因为中东紧张局势的缓解和伊朗-以色列战线缓和的前景使投资者重新关注本周在阿尔伯塔省举行的七国集团峰会和美联储的连续加息预期。在国内，4月份的IBC-Br经济活动指标连续第四个月上涨，上涨0.2%，而6月份的IGP-10暴跌0.97%，反映了最新焦点公报中较温和的通胀前景。在企业方面，淡水河谷在为其巴卡巴铜项目获得环境许可证后，以3.3%的涨幅领涨权重股，巴西航空工业公司因订单流量强劲而飙升6.2%，《路易莎杂志》飙升6.3%。

The Ibovespa rose 1.5% to close at 139,256 on Monday, as easing Middle East tensions and prospects of de-escalation at the Iran–Israel front allowed investors to refocus on this week’s G7 summit in Alberta and back-to-back rate-pause expectations from Copom and the Fed. Domestically, April’s IBC-Br gauge of economic activity registered a fourth straight monthly gain, up 0.2%, while June’s IGP-10 plunged 0.97%, mirroring a softer inflation outlook in the latest Focus Bulletin. On the corporate side, Vale led gains among heavyweights with a 3.3% jump after securing an environmental license for its Bacaba copper project, Embraer soared 6.2% on robust order flows, and Magazine Luiza spiked 6.3%.

巴西10年期政府债券的收益率在6月份降至13.9%左右，接近12月以来的最低水平？2024年，由于通胀疲软和利率预期的转变压缩了期限溢价。5月份的IPCA同比涨幅为5.32%，远低于普遍预期，巩固了市场对Copom将停在14.75%的信心，并缓和了波动性。尽管财政部长哈达德最近对IOF法令的调整和补充所得税措施未能完全让投资者放心巴西的中期财政路径，但标普的6月份？6该国“BB”评级得到肯定，前景稳定，为信贷息差提供了可喜的喘息机会。在外部方面，由于有关伊朗与以色列重新进行外交接触的报道，美国国债收益率小幅回落，只能提供有限的缓解；随着大量债券发行的临近和养老基金的适当谨慎，巴西收益率可能会徘徊在目前的水平附近，直到可信的财政整顿站稳脚跟。

The yield on the Brazilian 10-year government bond eased to around 13.9% in June, near its lowest level since December?2024, as softening inflation and shifting rate expectations have compressed term premia. May’s IPCA print of 5.32% year-on-year landed well below consensus, cementing market conviction that Copom will pause at 14.75% and tempering volatility. Although Finance Minister Haddad’s recent IOF-decree tweaks and supplementary income-tax measures have fallen short of fully reassuring investors on Brazil’s medium-term fiscal path, S&P’s June?6 affirmation of the country’s “BB” rating with a stable outlook provided a welcome respite for credit spreads. On the external front, a modest pullback in US Treasury yields, driven by reports of renewed Iran-Israel diplomatic engagement, offered only limited relief; with heavy issuance looming and pension funds suitably cautious, Brazilian yields are likely to linger near current levels until credible fiscal consolidation takes hold.

在美元走软的推动下，6月份巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率升至5.5，为8个月来的最高水平，此前有报道称伊朗可能恢复与以色列的核谈判，交易员削减了风险头寸，导致美元普遍疲软。在国内，缓解价格压力，5月份的IPCA通胀低于预期，同比下降5.32%，降低了进一步紧缩的前景，而4月份的劳动力数据超出预期，增加了257528个正式工作岗位，失业率徘徊在历史低点附近，推高了实际收益率和消费者支出。尽管5月份的贸易顺差缩小到美国？$7.2?受大豆、石油和铁矿石价格疲软的影响，出口下降0.1%，进口增长4.7%，大宗商品交易量强劲以及对农业繁荣的预测继续支撑着外汇流入。

The Brazilian real strengthened toward 5.5 per USD in June, its strongest level in eight months, driven by a softer US dollar, on the back of broad US dollar weakness after traders pared risk-off positions amid reports that Iran may resume nuclear talks with Israel. Domestically, easing price pressures, May’s IPCA inflation undershot forecasts at 5.32% year-on-year, reduced the prospect of further tightening, while April’s labor data exceeded expectations with 257,528 formal jobs added and the unemployment rate hovering near historic lows, bolstering real yields and consumer spending. Despite May’s trade surplus narrowing to US?$7.2?billion, on a 0.1% drop in exports weighed by softer soy, oil and iron-ore prices, and a 4.7% rise in imports, robust commodity volumes and forecasts for a strong agriboom continue to underpin FX inflows.