巴西6个月期国债 (Brazil6M) 加自选

周三，Ibovespa指数下跌0.4%，收于139051点，反映出外部和国内不利因素的趋同。在国外，6月份ADP报告中意外失去33000个工作岗位，以及7月9日关税截止日期前美国贸易协议的不确定性再次出现，对巴西出口敏感的股市造成了沉重压力。在国内，5月份工业产出收缩0.5%，标志着连续两个月下降，突显了经济降温。与此同时，央行重申，其15%的Selic利率将“在很长一段时间内保持限制性”，收紧依赖借贷的行业的金融条件。对IOF税收法令僵局和2026年拟议的200亿雷亚尔税收激励削减的财政不安进一步让投资者感到不安。Companhia Sanea（-3.8%）、Localica（-6.1%）、Hapvida（-5.9%）、Natura（-7.5%）和Lojas Renner（-3.7%）领跌，而大型股巴西国家石油公司（2.7%）、淡水河谷（3.8%）和安贝夫（2.5%）帮助抵消了损失。

The Ibovespa fell 0.4% to close at 139,051 on Wednesday, reflecting a convergence of external and domestic headwinds. Abroad, the unexpected loss of 33,000 jobs in June’s ADP report and renewed uncertainty over US trade deals ahead of the July 9th tariff deadline have weighed heavily on Brazil’s export-sensitive equities. Domestically, May’s 0.5% contraction in industrial output, marking two consecutive monthly declines, underscored a cooling economy. Meanwhile, the central bank reaffirmed that its 15% Selic rate will remain “restrictive for a very prolonged period,” tightening financial conditions for borrowing-dependent sectors. Fiscal unease over the impasse on the IOF tax decree and proposed R$20 billion in 2026 tax-incentive cuts further unsettled investors. Companhia Sanea (-3.8%), Localiza (-6.1%), Hapvida (-5.9%), Natura (-7.5%) and Lojas Renner (-3.7%) led the decline, while mega-caps Petrobras (2.7%), Vale (3.8%) and Ambev (2.5%) helped offset losses.

在鹰派货币政策信号、稳定的通胀控制措施和对美联储的鸽派预期的影响下，巴西雷亚尔在7月份已超过5.44美元，为9个月来的最高水平。央行货币政策主管重申，目前15%的Selic不仅具有限制性，而且将在“很长一段时间”内保持在较高水平，以重新锚定通胀预期，而通胀预期仍受到巴西向后看的价格动态的影响。与此同时，6月份美国私营部门意外失去3.3万个工作岗位，这给美元带来了压力，并促使市场最早在7月加大了对美联储降息的押注，缩小了美国与巴西的收益率差距，并有利于雷亚尔。与此同时，迄今为止，围绕IOF法令和政治内斗的持续法律斗争并没有破坏央行的信誉或前瞻性指导，即使在财政不确定的情况下，雷亚尔也能站稳脚跟。

The Brazilian real has strengthened past 5.44 per USD in July, its strongest level in nine months, amid hawkish monetary policy signals, steady inflation control efforts, and dovish expectations for the US Fed. The central bank’s monetary policy director reaffirmed that the Selic, currently at 15%, is not only restrictive but will be held at elevated levels for a “very prolonged” period to re-anchor inflation expectations, which remain influenced by Brazil’s backward-looking price dynamics. Meanwhile, June’s surprise loss of 33,000 US private-sector jobs added pressure on the dollar and spurred markets to increase bets on Fed cuts as early as July, narrowing the US-Brazil yield spread and favoring the real. Meanwhile, ongoing legal battles over the IOF decree and political infighting have so far not undermined the Central Bank’s credibility or forward guidance, allowing the real to hold firm even amid fiscal uncertainties.

周三，Ibovespa指数波动较大，徘徊在139000点附近，因为投资者在7月9日关税停战最后期限之前评估了美国贸易谈判取得进展的前景。唐纳德·特朗普总统表示，他不会延长最后期限，让市场保持谨慎。ADP劳动力市场数据疲软后，美国降息的时机也存在不确定性。在当地，焦点转向央行货币政策主管Nilton David在圣保罗花旗银行活动上的讲话。市场也可能对总检察长办公室将IOF法令案件提交最高法院的决定做出反应。在企业方面，淡水河谷（+1.1%）和巴西国家石油公司（+0.8%）上涨，而主要银行下跌（桑坦德银行-1.3%，伊塔乌银行-0.4%）。Eletrobras上涨0.2%。超市类股上涨，GPA领涨（+3.8%）。零售商喜忧参半：美国人+1.3%，阿扎人+0.9%，路易莎杂志-0.6%。巴西航空工业公司下跌0.5%，Azul上涨1.1%，Gol上涨0.6%。

The Ibovespa was volatile on Wednesday, hovering near 139,000 as investors assessed prospects for progress in US trade talks ahead of the July 9 tariff truce deadline. President Donald Trump said he will not extend the deadline, keeping markets cautious. Uncertainty also surrounds the timing of US rate cuts following soft ADP labor market data. Locally, focus turns to central bank monetary policy director Nilton David’s remarks at a Citi event in São Paulo. Markets may also react to the Attorney General’s Office decision to take the IOF decree case to the Supreme Court. On the corporate front, Vale (+1.1%) and Petrobras (+0.8%) rose, while major banks fell (Santander -1.3%, Itaú -0.4%). Eletrobras added 0.2%. Supermarket stocks advanced, led by GPA (+3.8%). Retailers were mixed: Americanas +1.3%, Azzas +0.9%, Magazine Luiza -0.6%. Embraer dipped 0.5%, Azul rose 1.1%, and Gol gained 0.6%.

2025年5月，巴西工业生产下降0.5%，与4月份修订后的下降和市场预期相符。四大经济类别中的三个和25个行业中的13个出现亏损。跌幅最大的是机动车辆（-3.9%）和石油产品（-1.8%），以及食品（-0.8%）、饮料（-18%）和家具（-2.6%）的跌幅。相比之下，采掘业上涨0.8%，连续第四年上涨。其他涨幅来自制药（+3.0%）、橡胶和塑料（+1.6%）以及鞋类（+3.2%）。产量同比增长3.3%，年初至今增长1.8%。

Brazil's industrial production fell 0.5% in May 2025, matching April’s revised decline and market expectations. Three of the four major economic categories and 13 of 25 sectors posted losses. The steepest drops came from motor vehicles (-3.9%) and petroleum products (-1.8%), alongside declines in food (-0.8%), beverages (-1.8%), and furniture (-2.6%). In contrast, extractive industries rose 0.8%, marking a fourth straight gain. Other gains came from pharmaceuticals (+3.0%), rubber and plastics (+1.6%), and footwear (+3.2%). Year-on-year, output grew 3.3%, with year-to-date growth at 1.8%.