巴西6个月期国债 (Brazil6M) 加自选

周四，由于美国对巴西商品征收的关税较低，而对中国（54%）、欧盟（20%）和日本（24%）征收的关税较高，Ibovespa指数小幅下跌，收于131141点。虽然10%的广泛关税引发了人们对竞争力的担忧，但巴西的相对优势可能会提高其在农业和大宗商品出口市场的份额。投资者情绪也有所改善，因为预计中国和其他国家的贸易报复可能会将投资转向巴西。然而，不断升级的贸易紧张局势带来了风险，估计将拖累GDP 0.5个百分点。卢拉总统承诺的互惠措施增加了不确定性，尽管市场对巴西的立场反应积极。大型股巴西国家石油公司（-3.5%）、淡水河谷（-3.6%）和苏萨诺（-4.4%）领跌，大宗商品价格疲软，而大多数其他板块上涨。

The Ibovespa pared early losses to close marginally lower at 131,141 on Thursday, supported by milder U.S. tariffs on Brazilian goods compared to steeper levies on China (54%), the EU (20%), and Japan (24%). While the broad 10% tariff raises competitiveness concerns, Brazil's relative advantage could boost its export market share in agriculture and commodities. Investor sentiment also improved on expectations that trade retaliation from China and others may redirect investment to Brazil. However, escalating trade tensions pose risks, with estimates suggesting a 0.5 percentage point drag on GDP. President Lula’s pledge of reciprocal measures adds uncertainty, though markets have reacted positively to Brazil’s positioning. Mega-caps Petrobras (-3.5%), Vale (-3.6%), and Suzano (-4.4%) led declines amid weaker commodity prices, while most other sectors advanced.

巴西雷亚尔在4月份升值至5.6美元兑1美元，为2024年10月以来的最高水平，得益于与其他主要经济体相比相对温和的关税，这使其在唐纳德·特朗普的新贸易措施中处于更有利的地位。虽然这些关税对全球贸易不利，但巴西与美国的平衡贸易关系使其免受其他国家面临的更大影响。此外，巴西的大宗商品出口部门，特别是农业，可能会从全球贸易动态的潜在转变中获益，正如在美中贸易战期间所看到的那样，当时中国对大宗商品的需求转向了巴西。中国对巴西基础设施的持续投资加强了这一贸易定位，这进一步支持了巴西的出口前景。此外，全球市场情绪，特别是对美国经济衰退和美联储预期降息的担忧，已经削弱了美元。

The Brazilian real appreciated toward 5.6 per USD in April, its strongest level since October 2024, benefiting from relatively mild tariffs in comparison to other major economies, which positions it more favorably amid Donald Trump's new trade measures. While these tariffs represent a negative for global trade, Brazil’s balanced trade relationship with the U.S. shields it from the larger impacts other countries face. Moreover, Brazil’s commodity-exporting sectors, especially agriculture, could see gains from a potential shift in global trade dynamics, as seen during the U.S.-China trade war when Chinese demand for commodities redirected towards Brazil. This trade positioning has been strengthened by China’s ongoing investments in Brazil’s infrastructure, which further supports Brazil's export prospects. Additionally, global market sentiment, particularly in response to concerns over U.S. recession and the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts, has put weakened the U.S. dollar.

周四，Ibovespa指数下跌约0.6%，跌至131190点以下，因为特朗普总统宣布的全面美国关税措施将对所有巴西出口产品征收至少10%的附加费，这令依赖出口的大型股感到不安。这些关税旨在纠正人们认为的贸易不平衡，加剧了全球风险规避，并引发了人们对潜在衰退的担忧，这可能会削弱对巴西大宗商品出口的需求。对其他贸易伙伴报复行动的预期，加上投入成本上升、工业生产放缓和制造业增长放缓，进一步加剧了国内经济压力，并推动巴西股市普遍回落。能源和采矿等关键行业仍然特别脆弱，巴西国家石油公司股价下跌超过3%，淡水河谷股价下跌超过1.5%，因为投资者在关税长期影响的不确定性不断升级的情况下重新评估了他们的风险敞口。

The Ibovespa fell approximately 0.6% to drop below the 131,190 level on Thursday as sweeping U.S. tariff measures—announced by President Trump and set to impose at least a 10% surcharge on all Brazilian exports—have rattled export-dependent mega-caps. These tariffs, aimed at redressing perceived trade imbalances, have fueled global risk aversion and raised fears of a potential recession that could weaken demand for Brazil’s commodity exports. Anticipation of retaliatory actions by other trading partners, coupled with rising input costs, slower industrial production, and subdued manufacturing growth, has further compounded domestic economic pressures and driven a broad-based pullback in Brazilian equities. Key sectors such as energy and mining remain particularly vulnerable, with Petrobras shedding over 3% and Vale losing more than 1.5% as investors reassess their exposure amid escalating uncertainty over the tariffs’ long-term impact.

标准普尔全球巴西服务业采购经理人指数从2月份的50.6升至2025年3月的52.5，创下四个月新高，表明服务业活动具有弹性。随着需求的改善刺激了销售的明显回升，新业务量恢复增长，这是四个月来最快的。消费服务业引领产出和销售增长，而金融和保险业的产出费用涨幅最大。在食品、劳动力、材料、运输和公用事业费用上涨的推动下，投入成本以近三年来第二快的速度飙升，而销售价格通胀虽然很高，但在2025年降至迄今为止的最低水平。尽管面临巨大的成本压力，以及高借贷成本和购买力下降的持续制约，但企业仍以比2月份更稳健但更慢的速度扩大了招聘。由于对违约、通货膨胀和高借贷成本的担忧，对2025年的乐观情绪降至2021年5月以来的最低水平，仍远低于长期系列平均水平。

The S&P Global Brazil Services PMI rose to 52.5 in March 2025 from 50.6 in February, marking a four-month high and signaling resilient services activity. New business intakes returned to growth as improved demand spurred a marked sales upturn—the fastest in four months. Consumer Services led output and sales gains, while Finance & Insurance saw the sharpest rise in output charges. Input costs surged at the second-fastest pace in nearly three years, driven by higher food, labor, material, transportation, and utility expenses, while selling price inflation, though high, receded to its weakest in 2025 so far. Despite intense cost pressures and ongoing constraints from high borrowing costs and subdued purchasing power, firms expanded hiring at a solid, albeit slower, pace than in February. Optimism about 2025 fell to its lowest level since May 2021 and remained well below its long-run series average amid concerns over defaults, inflation, and high borrowing costs.