巴西6个月期国债 (Brazil6M) 加自选

巴西的哈达德表示，高利率将抑制通货膨胀。巴西财政部长费尔南多·哈达德周五表示，高利率对通货膨胀的影响将比许多人预期的要大得多，他驳斥了财政挑战可能破坏货币政策有效性的担忧。

Brazil's Haddad says high interest rates will curb inflation.Brazil's Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said on Friday that high interest rates are poised to have a much stronger effect on inflation than many expect, dismissing fears that fiscal challenges could undermine the effectiveness of monetary policy.

周五，Ibovespa指数上涨0.9%，收于122350点，随着全球情绪的改善，圣保罗交易所每周上涨2.9%，投资者在低于预期的核心通胀、PPI和疲软的零售销售数据的支撑下，权衡美联储今年进一步降息的潜力。此外，中国第四季度GDP数据强于预期，反映了强劲的经济增长，达到了政府5%的年度目标，推动了淡水河谷等中国需求相关股票上涨2.7%，肉类加工商JBS和BRF分别上涨1.2%和1.7%。与此同时，除Itaúsa外，大多数主要银行的交易都处于负值区域，Itaúza在瑞银BB上调“买入”建议后上涨了0.8%，突显出其具有吸引力的估值、稳健的盈利能力，预计ROAE为23-24%，2025年的两位数股息收益率估计为320亿巴西雷亚尔。

The Ibovespa rose 0.9% to close at 122,350 on Friday, securing the São Paulo exchange a weekly gain of 2.9% as global sentiment improved, with investors weighing the Federal Reserve’s potential for further rate cuts this year, supported by softer-than-expected core inflation, PPI, and weak retail sales data. Additionally, stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP figures from China, reflecting robust economic growth that met the government’s 5% annual target, lifted Chinese demand-linked equities such as Vale, which climbed 2.7%, along with meat processors JBS and BRF, gaining 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively. Meanwhile, most major banks traded in negative territory, except for Itaúsa, which rose 0.8% following an upgraded "buy" recommendation from UBS BB, highlighting its attractive valuation, solid profitability with a projected ROAE of 23-24%, and a double-digit dividend yield estimated at BRL 32 billion for 2025.

周五，Ibovespa指数徘徊在121300点的水平之上，使圣保罗交易所有望每周上涨2%以上，因为投资者消化了一系列外部经济数据，包括中国强于预期的第四季度GDP数据，同时还在唐纳德·特朗普就任下一任美国总统之前调整头寸。受数据显示中国经济在2024年最后一个季度强劲增长，实现了政府5%的年增长目标的推动，中国需求相关股票，特别是大型股淡水河谷上涨了1%以上。与此同时，市场对特朗普即将重返白宫仍持谨慎态度，预计他将在周一宣誓就职后发布一系列行政命令。下行方面，Ambev、B3和Localica领跌，跌幅在1.7%至2.5%之间。

The Ibovespa hovered above the flatline at the 121,300 level on Friday, setting the São Paulo exchange on track for a weekly gain of over 2% as investors digested a range of external economic data, including stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP figures from China, while also adjusting positions ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration as the next U.S. president. Chinese demand-linked equities, notably mega-cap Vale, gained over 1%, buoyed by data showing China's economy grew robustly in the final quarter of 2024, meeting the government's annual growth target of 5%. Meanwhile, markets remain cautious to Trump's imminent return to the White House, with expectations of a flurry of executive orders upon his swearing-in on Monday. On the downside, Ambev, B3, and Localiza led decliners, with losses ranging from 1.7% to 2.5%.

周四，Ibovespa指数下跌1.2%，至121234点，因财政担忧掩盖了Prisma fiscal报告中改善的赤字和债务预测，收窄了此前的涨幅。投资者对政府在利率上升和借贷成本高企的情况下维持财政框架的能力仍持谨慎态度。11月IBC Br GDP预览显示温和增长0.1%，但服务业收缩0.9%，为2023年4月以来的最大收缩，抑制了市场情绪。更广泛的不确定性，包括税收改革的延迟和长期利率的上升，在获利回吐的情况下攀升了25个基点以上，增加了压力。Ambev、JBS、Eletrobras、B3和BRF等主要股票的跌幅在2%至7%之间。

The Ibovespa fell 1.2% to 121,234 on Thursday, paring prior gains as fiscal concerns overshadowed improved deficit and debt forecasts from the Prisma Fiscal report. Investors remained cautious about the government’s ability to maintain its fiscal framework amid elevated interest rates and high borrowing costs. The November IBC-Br GDP preview showed a modest 0.1% rise, but a 0.9% contraction in the services sector, the steepest since April 2023, dampened sentiment. Broader uncertainties, including delays in tax reforms and rising long-term interest rates, which climbed over 25 basis points amid profit-taking, added pressure. Major stocks such as Ambev, JBS, Eletrobras, B3, and BRF posted losses ranging from 2% to 7%.