巴西6个月期国债 (Brazil6M) 加自选

巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率升至5.66，接近2024年11月以来的最高水平，上一次达到5.65是在3月19日，这是由缓解美国贸易紧张局势影响的一系列因素共同推动的。对新宣布的10%美国关税的有限直接出口敞口——估计将影响约20亿美元的出口，并保留飞机、钢铁和石油等关键行业——有助于缓解潜在的影响。此外，有吸引力的收益率差异、巴西央行通过外汇掉期进行有针对性的干预以遏制波动，以及旨在控制通胀的强有力的国内政策措施，都增强了投资者的信心。这些支持，再加上更广泛的美元疲软和与大宗商品挂钩的同行的抵消因素，保持了巴西对套利交易的吸引力，尽管美国长期通胀压力可能最终限制巴西的货币宽松政策并提高外部借贷成本。

The Brazilian real appreciated toward 5.66 per USD, approaching its strongest level since November 2024 at 5.65 last reached on March 19th, driven by a confluence of factors that mitigate the impact of U.S. trade tensions. Limited direct export exposure to the newly announced 10% U.S. tariff—estimated to affect roughly $2 billion in exports and sparing key sectors like aircraft, steel, and oil—has helped cushion potential fallout. Additionally, an attractive yield differential, targeted interventions by the Brazilian Central Bank through FX swaps to contain volatility, and strong domestic policy measures aimed at inflation control have all bolstered investor confidence. These supports, coupled with broader dollar weakness and offsetting factors among commodity-linked peers, have maintained Brazil’s appeal for carry trade, despite risks that prolonged U.S. inflationary pressures could eventually limit Brazil’s monetary easing and raise external borrowing costs.

周三，Ibovespa指数小幅上涨，收于131190点，在昨日反弹的基础上小幅上涨，投资者正在为即将到来的美国关税公告做准备。对美国更激进的互惠关税可能扰乱全球贸易并抑制对巴西大宗商品需求的担忧加剧，特别是在担心美国经济活动放缓的情况下。这种外部不确定性因国内挑战而加剧，包括财政失衡和收紧货币政策以遏制通货膨胀的可能性，这可能会推高借贷成本并挤压企业利润率。此外，工业生产疲软和制造业增长放缓加强了谨慎的市场立场。值得注意的是，桑坦德银行、B3和Rede D'Or领涨，分别上涨1.9%、1.5%和1.4%，而大多数股票交易持平至负值，WEG、BB Seguridade、Bradesco和巴西航空工业公司等权重股下跌0.6%至1.4%。

The Ibovespa edged marginally higher to close at 131,190 on Wednesday, modestly building on yesterday’s rebound as investors braced for the impending U.S. tariff announcement. Concerns that more aggressive U.S. reciprocal tariffs could disrupt global trade and dampen demand for Brazilian commodities have intensified, particularly amid fears of a slowdown in American economic activity. This external uncertainty is compounded by domestic challenges—including fiscal imbalances and the potential for tighter monetary policy to curb inflation—which could drive up borrowing costs and squeeze corporate margins. Moreover, softer industrial production and a deceleration in manufacturing growth have reinforced a cautious market stance. Notably, Santander, B3, and Rede D'Or led the rise with gains of 1.9%, 1.5%, and 1.4%, respectively, while most stocks traded flat to negative, with heavyweights such as WEG, BB Seguridade, Bradesco, and Embraer shedding between 0.6% and 1.4%.

巴西央行行长认为有必要进行改革，疏通货币政策传导渠道。巴西央行行长加布里埃尔·加利波洛周三表示，畅通货币政策传导渠道是该国一代人的挑战，需要一系列长期改革。

Brazil's central bank chief sees need for reforms to unblock monetary policy transmission channels.Brazil's central bank governor Gabriel Galipolo said on Wednesday that unblocking monetary policy transmission channels is a generational challenge in the country which will require a series of long reforms.

周三，Ibovespa指数小幅跌破130200点，在投资者为即将到来的美国关税公告做准备之际，该指数难以在昨日反弹的基础上继续上涨。对美国更激进的互惠关税可能扰乱全球贸易并抑制对巴西大宗商品需求的担忧加剧了人们的焦虑，特别是考虑到美国经济活动放缓的风险。这种外部不确定性因国内挑战而加剧，包括财政失衡和收紧货币政策以控制通货膨胀的可能性，这可能会提高借贷成本并挤压企业利润率。此外，工业生产疲软和制造业增长放缓加强了谨慎的市场立场，大多数股票交易持平至负值，权重股巴西国家石油公司、WEG、BB Seguridade、Suzano和巴西航空工业公司下跌0.4%至1.3%。

The Ibovespa edged below the 130,200 level on Wednesday, struggling to build on yesterday’s rebound as investors braced for the impending U.S. tariff announcement. Concerns that more aggressive U.S. reciprocal tariffs could disrupt global trade and depress demand for Brazilian commodities have heightened anxieties, particularly given the risk of a slowdown in American economic activity. This external uncertainty is compounded by domestic challenges, including fiscal imbalances and the potential for tighter monetary policy to rein in inflation, which could elevate borrowing costs and squeeze corporate margins. Additionally, softer industrial production and a slowdown in manufacturing growth have reinforced a cautious market stance, with most stocks trading flat to negative with heavyweights Petrobras, WEG, BB Seguridade, Suzano, and Embraer shedding between 0.4% and 1.3%.