巴西10年期政府债券的收益率徘徊在14.15%左右，这是自4月下旬以来从未见过的水平，反映出投资者对该国财政前景和高利率的持续担忧。这一收益率与巴西基准Selic利率密切相关，该利率仍为14.75%。由于利息支付的增加，预计到2028年，公共债务总额将达到GDP的84.2%，这加剧了市场的不安。尽管政府制定了雄心勃勃的基本盈余目标，但人们对其可行性仍持怀疑态度，尤其是在即将举行的选举和潜在的支出增加的情况下。外部因素也影响了市场情绪，包括全球通胀和美国国债收益率上升。美国众议院5月21日批准了一项新的财政方案，包括减税、增加国防开支和改变社会计划，预计这将增加美国的公共债务，可能会推高全球利率，并给巴西等新兴市场带来压力。
The yield on Brazil’s 10-year government bonds hovered around 14.15%, levels not seen since late April, reflecting ongoing investor concerns about the country’s fiscal outlook and high interest rates. This yield closely tracks Brazil’s benchmark Selic rate, which remains at 14.75%. Market unease is fueled by projections that gross public debt will peak at 84.2% of GDP by 2028, driven by rising interest payments. Although the government has set ambitious primary surplus targets, skepticism remains about their feasibility, especially with upcoming elections and potential increased spending. External factors also weigh on sentiment, including global inflation and rising US Treasury yields. The US House’s May 21 approval of a new fiscal package with tax cuts, increased defense spending, and social program changes is expected to raise US public debt, likely pushing global interest rates higher and adding pressure on emerging markets like Brazil.
