巴西6个月期国债 (Brazil6M) 加自选

巴西为受美国关税影响的公司提供19亿美元的新信贷额度。巴西国家开发银行BNDES周五宣布，为受美国高额关税影响的公司提供100亿雷亚尔（18.5亿美元）的新信贷额度。

Brazil unveils new $1.9 billion credit line for companies hit by US tariffs.Brazil's state development bank BNDES announced on Friday a fresh credit line of 10 billion reais ($1.85 billion) for companies affected by steep U.S. tariffs.

周五，Ibovespa指数飙升2.6%，收于137968点，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的杰克逊霍尔（Jackson Hole）言论提高了9月份在美国劳动力市场降温迹象下降息的可能性后，全球风险反弹推动该指数达到一个多月高点。主要银行领涨，巴西银行、桑坦德银行、Itaúsa和Bradesco上涨2.6%至4.4%，而对更容易融资的希望也提振了大宗商品股，使淡水河谷上涨约2.5%。圣保罗交易所本周上涨1.2%。

The Ibovespa surged 2.6% to close at 137,968 on Friday, reaching over one-month highs propelled by a global risk rally after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks raised the odds of a September rate cut amid signs of a cooling US labor market. Major banks led the advance with Banco do Brasil, Banco Santander, Itaúsa and Bradesco rising between 2.6% and 4.4%, while hopes for easier financing also buoyed commodity names and lifted Vale about 2.5%. For the week the São Paulo exchange posted a gain of 1.2%.

巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率突破5.42，回落至8月12日的近一年高点5.39，此前美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔暗示9月杰克逊霍尔可能降息，导致美元大幅下跌。DXY的疲软，再加上巴西-美国收益率差距仍然很大，因为Selic仍为15%，使短期结转至雷亚尔更具吸引力，并将资本撤回当地市场。然而，政治和财政风险继续笼罩着前景。最高法院关于外国法律不适用于国内的裁决被广泛解读为加剧了巴西与美国之间与马格尼茨基相关制裁和华盛顿对巴西商品征收50%关税的僵局，引入了法律不确定性，使风险溢价居高不下。

The Brazilian real strengthened past 5.42 per US dollar, moving back toward the near one-year high of 5.39 seen on August 12th as the dollar slid sharply after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled the possibility of a September rate cut at Jackson Hole. That DXY weakness, paired with a still-wide Brazil US yield spread because the Selic remains at 15%, made short-term carry into reais more attractive and drew capital back into local markets. However, political and fiscal risks continue to cloud the outlook. A Supreme Court ruling that foreign laws do not apply domestically was widely read as hardening the Brazil US impasse tied to Magnitsky related sanctions and Washington’s 50% tariff package on Brazilian goods, introducing legal uncertainty that keeps risk premia elevated.

巴西10年期政府债券收益率升至14.1%以上，创下三周新高，原因是新的财政压力和持续的货币刚性，尽管美国收益率有所下降。市场对债务轨迹的升级和财政部的预测做出了反应，这些预测显示未来几年公共债务总额将显著增加，这提高了投资者对巴西长期债券的长期溢价需求。巴西利亚的“主权巴西”措施通过新的信贷额度和对出口商的税收减免增加了或有负债。至关重要的是，央行将利率保持在15%，并表示如果通胀风险持续存在，准备保持政策，这一立场将使实际利率保持在高水平，并限制美国收益率下降对巴西长期的影响。巴西与美国僵局的法律和政治发展进一步削弱了人们对近期财政整顿的信心。

The 10-year Brazilian government bond yield rose above 14.1%, marking a three-week high driven by renewed fiscal pressure and persistent monetary rigidity even as US yields eased. Markets reacted to an upgraded debt trajectory and Treasury projections that show a marked rise in gross public debt over the coming years, raising the term premium investors demand for long-dated Brazilian paper. Brasília’s "Sovereign Brazil" measures have added contingent liabilities through new credit lines and tax relief for exporters. Crucially the central bank has kept the interest rate at 15% and signalled readiness to hold policy if inflation risks persist, a stance that keeps real rates high and limits the pass-through from falling US yields into Brazil’s long end. Legal and political developments in the Brazil-US impasse have further weakened confidence in near-term fiscal consolidation.