加拿大3个月期国债 (Canada3M) 加自选

标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数周三微涨至26870点的新纪录，因投资者在美加贸易谈判取得进展的同时，平衡了边境两侧不温不火的经济信号。渥太华承诺在7月9日前取消所有报复性关税，此前上周废除了数字服务税，但几乎没有产生新的影响，主要关注加拿大5月份GDP持平和美国6月份意外减少33000个工作岗位，后者推动了国债收益率的小幅增长。从行业来看，通信和材料领涨：罗杰斯通信公司因蒙特利尔银行价格目标上调而上涨7.2%，泰克资源公司和第一量子金属公司因铜前景增强而上涨3-3.7%，庞巴迪公司在获得50架飞机订单后飙升21.4%。相比之下，科技股表现不佳，黑莓因重组问题下跌8.2%，Waste Connections、Great West Lifeco和Cameco等防御性品牌均下跌超过3.5%。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index edged up to a fresh record of 26,870 on Wednesday as investors balanced tepid economic signals on both sides of the border with progress in US–Canada trade talks. Ottawa’s pledge to lift all retaliatory tariffs by July 9th followed last week’s digital services tax repeal, but had little fresh impact, keeping focus on Canada’s flat flash GDP for May and the US’s unexpected 33,000-job decline in June—the latter driving modest Treasury yield gains. Sector-wise, communications and materials led the advance: Rogers Communications leapt 7.2% on a BMO price-target upgrade, Teck Resources and First Quantum Metals rallied 3–3.7% on stronger copper outlooks, and Bombardier soared 21.4% after securing a 50-aircraft order. In contrast, technology underperformed, with BlackBerry down 8.2% on restructuring concerns, and defensive names such as Waste Connections, Great-West Lifeco and Cameco each slipped more than 3.5%.

加元兑美元汇率稳定在1.365，距离6月16日的8个月高点1.354不远，这得益于美联储温和定价后美元普遍疲软、美联储主席鲍威尔的耐心立场，以及特朗普总统3.3万亿美元的税收和支出法案以及3.3万个就业ADP意外下降后日益加剧的财政担忧。与此同时，美国贸易政策再次出现不确定性，特别是数字服务税废除后汽车、钢铁和铝谈判的7月21日框架最后期限迫在眉睫，以及对其他合作伙伴征收更高关税的威胁，都给加拿大的出口前景带来了压力。在国内，标普全球6月份加拿大制造业采购经理人指数跌至45.6，为五年多来最低水平，标志着在关税压力下的出口订单和库存大幅下降的情况下，工厂连续第五个月收缩，加剧了增长焦虑。

The Canadian dollar traded steady at 1.365 per USD, not far from its eight-month high of 1.354 on June 16th, buoyed by broad US dollar weakness following dovish Fed pricing, Fed Chair Powell’s patient stance, and mounting fiscal concerns after President Trump’s $3.3 trillion tax-and-spending bill and a surprise 33,000-job ADP decline. At the same time, renewed uncertainty over US trade policy, particularly the looming July 21st framework deadline for autos, steel and aluminum talks post-digital services tax repeal, and the threat of higher tariffs on other partners has weighed on Canada’s export outlook. Domestically, S&P Global’s June Canada Manufacturing PMI tumbled to 45.6, its weakest reading in over five years, marking a fifth consecutive month of factory contraction amid tariff-pressured export orders and steep inventory drawdowns, adding to growth anxieties.

标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数周三下跌约0.2%，至26820点以下，受科技和金融权重股下跌拖累，尽管大宗商品生产商提供了一些抵消。多伦多证券交易所的主要科技公司Shopify和Constellation Software分别下跌约1.2%和0.8%，与美国隔夜大幅回调一致，而主要金融机构Brookfield和丰业银行分别下跌约0.8%和1%，因为ADP报告引发了人们对美联储降息时机的新怀疑，收益率曲线趋于平缓。相反，大宗商品生产商加拿大天然气公司、森科尔公司、巴里克黄金公司和Cenovus公司的股价上涨了1%以上。在国内，标普全球6月份加拿大制造业采购经理人指数暴跌至45.6，为五年多来的最低水平，标志着连续第五个月产量大幅下降，出口订单疲软，以及自2020年以来最快的库存去库存，突显出关税和贸易摩擦如何继续扼杀出口导向型行业。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell around 0.2% to below the 26,820 mark on Wednesday, dragged down by losses in tech and financial heavyweights even as commodity producers offered some offset. Major TSX tech names—Shopify and Constellation Software—tumbled around 1.2% and 0.8%, respectively in line with overnight US megacap pullbacks, while major financial institutions Brookfield and Scotiabank dropped around 0.8% and 1%, respectively amid a flatter yield curve after the ADP report stoked fresh doubts over the timing of Fed rate cuts. Conversely, commodity producers Canadian Natural, Suncor, Barrick Gold, and Cenovus added over 1%. Domestically, S&P Global’s June Canada Manufacturing PMI plunged to 45.6, its lowest in over five years, marking a fifth straight month of steep output decline, export order weakness and the fastest inventory destocking since 2020, underscoring how tariffs and trade frictions continue to choke export-oriented sectors.

标准普尔全球加拿大制造业采购经理人指数从上个月的46.1降至2025年6月的45.6，仍表明工厂活动连续第五次恶化，受到五年多来产量最大收缩和新订单再次大幅下降的压力。关税和不可预测的美国贸易政策打压了需求，将产量和新工作削减到2020年春季的水平，并将出口订单拖入调查中跌幅最大的一个。工作量的减少导致连续第五个月裁员，积压订单大幅减少，促使采购活动和库存进一步减少。由于交货期延长，关税导致的供应延迟迫使企业减少库存。投入成本通胀降至四个月低点，但仍保持高位，促使企业提高产出价格。信心升至1月以来的最高点，但在持续的贸易不确定性下仍处于低迷状态。

The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI fell to 45.6 in June of 2025 from 46.1 in the previous month, still pointing to a fifth successive deterioration in factory activity, pressured by the steepest contraction in output for over five years and another sharp decline in new orders. Tariffs and unpredictable US trade policy weighed on demand, cutting production and new work at spring-2020 levels and dragging export orders into one of the survey’s steepest declines. Reduced workloads led to a fifth consecutive month of staffing cuts and sharply lower backlogs, prompting further reductions in purchasing activity and inventories. Tariff-driven supply delays forced firms to draw down stocks as lead times lengthened. Input cost inflation eased to a four-month low but stayed elevated, pushing firms to raise output prices. Confidence rose to its strongest since January but remained subdued amid persistent trade uncertainty.