加拿大3个月期国债 (Canada3M) 加自选

加拿大10年期国债收益率攀升至3.18%以上，投资者消化了自由党少数党的微弱胜利及其财政影响，以及加拿大银行的谨慎立场。马克·卡尼的自由党仅以微弱优势获胜，让他执掌一个少数派政府，该政府必须与较小的政党谈判联盟支持，并可能有针对性的支出承诺。这种动态提高了预期的英联邦借款，以履行新的财政承诺，推高了长期债务的期限溢价。与此同时，加拿大央行决定维持2.75%的政策利率不变，理由是持续的核心通胀和美国驱动的经济衰退的双重风险，或者相反，如果关税放松，经济将停滞不前，这排除了任何有意义的近期降息。

Canadian 10-year yields have climbed past 3.18% as investors digest the narrow Liberal minority victory and its fiscal fallout alongside the Bank of Canada’s cautious stance. Mark Carney’s Liberals prevailed only narrowly, leaving him at the helm of a minority government that must negotiate coalition support—and likely targeted spending pledges—with smaller parties. That dynamic raises expected Commonwealth borrowing to meet fresh fiscal commitments, pushing up the term premium on long-dated debt. At the same time, the Bank of Canada’s decision to stand pat at a 2.75 % policy rate—citing persistent core inflation and the dual risk of a U.S.-driven recession or, conversely, stagnation should tariffs ease—has ruled out any meaningful near-term rate cuts.

周二，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数徘徊在24800点的水平之上，为三周多来的最高水平，因为投资者欢迎英国首相马克·卡尼（mark Carney）的自由党少数党胜利，并认为他在央行的深刻经历在与华盛顿持续的关税紧张局势中起到了稳定作用。市场从卡尼坚定反对美国进口关税的承诺中得到了保证——尽管缺乏议会多数席位——同时也考虑到，如果华盛顿放松对外国投入品的关税，国内汽车零部件供应商可能会得到缓解。与此同时，交易员们仍然关注美中贸易谈判的进展和美联储的政策前景，随着加拿大在不确定的全球贸易环境中航行，这两者与卡尼的领导层一起正在塑造融资条件和行业势头。金融权重股领涨，加拿大皇家银行、道明银行、布鲁克菲尔德银行、丰业银行和加拿大帝国商业银行各上涨0.5%以上。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index hovered above the flatline at the 24,800 mark on Tuesday, its highest level in over three weeks, as investors welcomed Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal minority victory and viewed his deep central bank experience as a stabilizing influence amid ongoing tariff tensions with Washington. Markets found reassurance in Carney’s commitment to push back firmly against U.S. import duties—despite lacking a parliamentary majority—while also pricing in potential relief for domestic auto-parts suppliers should Washington ease tariffs on foreign inputs. Meanwhile, traders remained focused on developments in U.S.–China trade talks and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, both of which, alongside Carney’s leadership, are shaping financing conditions and sectoral momentum as Canada navigates an uncertain global trade environment. Financial heavyweights led the gains, with RBC, TD Bank, Brookfield, Scotiabank, and CIBC each advancing over 0.5%.

早盘报价：美国贸易担忧消退，加拿大卡尼回归。当今美国和全球市场最重要的是什么

Morning Bid: U.S. Trade fears ebb, Canada's Carney returns.What matters in U.S. and global markets today

加拿大自由党可能赢得选举——德国商业银行。德国商业银行外汇分析师Michael Pfister指出，根据最新的民意调查，加拿大自由党似乎赢得了最近的选举，这应该不再令人惊讶。

Canadian Liberals likely to win the election – Commerzbank.Based on the latest polls, it should no longer be too surprising that the Canadian Liberals appear to have won the recent election, Commerzbank's FX analyst Michael Pfister notes.