加拿大3个月期国债 (Canada3M) 加自选

加元兑美元汇率超过1.40加元，徘徊在月度高点附近，因为在加拿大银行的政策决定之前，美加利率差收窄，国内基本面坚挺，美元走软。加元受到美元普遍疲软的支撑，而市场预计美联储和中国银行将降息近25个基点。然而，即使在从5%的峰值累计宽松275个基点之后，加拿大的相对利率前景仍然更加有利，2.25%的政策利率继续提供正的实际收益率，而整体CPI为2.4%。分析人士认为，本周的降息可能标志着中国央行宽松周期的结束，在温和的通胀压力和7.1%的失业率下，官员们预计将采取中性到鹰派的基调，以维护信誉。与此同时，有弹性的原油和非能源出口价格正在支撑加拿大的外部平衡，随着全球央行转向宽松政策，帮助加元跑赢同行。

The Canadian dollar strengthened past C$1.40 per US dollar, hovering near monthly highs as narrowing US–Canada rate differentials, firm domestic fundamentals, and a weaker greenback converged ahead of the Bank of Canada’s policy decision. The loonie drew support from broad US dollar softness, while markets priced in near-certain 25 bps cuts from both the Fed and the BoC. Canada’s relative rate outlook, however, remains more favorable even after a 275 bps cumulative easing from its 5% peak, the 2.25% policy rate continues to deliver positive real yields against a 2.4% headline CPI. Analysts view this week’s cut as likely marking the end of the BoC’s easing cycle, with officials expected to strike a neutral-to-hawkish tone to safeguard credibility amid mild inflation pressures and a 7.1% unemployment rate. Meanwhile, resilient crude and non-energy export prices are bolstering Canada’s external balance, helping the loonie outperform peers as global central banks pivot to looser policy.