美国10年期国债 (US10Y) 加自选

达拉斯联邦储备银行的一般商业活动指数较上月上涨5.7点，至2025年6月的-4.4，反映出商业活动下降幅度较小。这一结果与美国的其他领先指标一致，在白宫暂停征收新关税后，美国6月份的领先指标略有改善，尽管仍存在不确定性。这些主要是通过就业（-1.2比5月的-0.2）和资本支出（7.5比4.4）实现的，反映出企业在谨慎乐观的前景下继续调整产能。一直以来，未来收入前景飙升（33.4比27.2），而衡量前景不确定性的指标仍高达19.7（比18.7）。尽管如此，目前的收入还是下降了（-4.1比-4.7）。

The Dallas Fed’s general business activity index jumped by 5.7 points from the previous month to –4.4 in June 2025, reflecting a softer magnitude of decline in business activity. The result was in line with other leading indicators for the US, which showed modest improvement in June after the White House’s pause on new tariffs, although uncertainty remained. These were mainly through employment (–1.2 vs –0.2 in May) and capital expenditures (7.5 vs 4.4), reflecting that firms continue to adjust capacity amid a cautiously optimistic outlook. Consistently, the outlook for future revenues surged (33.4 vs 27.2) while the gauge measuring outlook uncertainty remained elevated at 19.7 (vs 18.7). Still, current revenues declined (–4.1 vs –4.7).