加拿大20年期国债 (Canada20Y) 加自选

标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数周五上涨1%，收于创纪录的30472点，使多伦多证交所本周上涨2.4%，科技和大宗商品生产商领涨，而美联储近期降息的希望超过了对美国政府关门的担忧。大型股Shopify上涨6.5%，此前Rothschild Redburn将其目标价从180美元上调至200美元，同时保留买入评级，并将OpenAI的即时结账作为新的货币化杠杆。Constellation Software上涨约3.3%。矿业和能源生产商表现优异，金价创下历史新高，油价在本周大幅下跌后企稳。在数据方面，加拿大制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）仍在收缩，为46.3，连续第十个月低于50不变大关，强化了对宽松政策背景的预期。

The S&P/TSX Composite rose 1% to close at a record 30,472 on Friday, putting the Toronto exchange up 2.4% for the week as tech and commodity producers led the advance while hopes for a near-term Fed rate cut outweighed concerns about a US government shutdown. Mega-cap Shopify jumped 6.5% after Rothschild Redburn raised its price target to $200 from $180 while retaining a Buy rating and citing OpenAI’s Instant Checkout as a fresh monetization lever. Constellation Software added about 3.3%. Miners and energy producers outperformed as gold hit record highs and oil steadied after this week’s sharp selloff. On the data front Canada’s manufacturing PMI remained in contraction at 46.3, the tenth straight month below the 50 no-change mark, reinforcing expectations of a looser policy backdrop.

前瞻性指导：劳工和贸易报告对加拿大央行的 下一个费率决定。加拿大劳动力市场和国际贸易报告将在加拿大央行上个月降息后于10月29日做出下一次利率决定之前受到密切关注。

Forward Guidance: Labour and Trade Reports Critical for BoC's Next Rate Decision.Canadian labour market and international trade reports will be closely watched ahead of the Bank of Canada's next interest rate decision on Oct. 29 after last month's cut.

周五，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数上涨约0.6%，首次突破30300点，使多伦多股市有望每周上涨1.8%以上，因为科技和大宗商品生产商领涨，而对美联储近期降息的希望超过了对美国政府关门的担忧。大型股Shopify上涨近6%，此前Rothschild Redburn将其目标价从180美元上调至200美元，同时保持买入评级，并将OpenAI的Instant Checkout整合作为新的货币化杠杆。矿业股表现优异，Agnico Eagle、Wheaton Precious Metals和Franco Nevada上涨约1%至1.2%，金价创下历史新高。在本周油价大幅下跌后企稳后，能源生产商也表现强劲。经济方面，加拿大制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）仍在收缩，为46.3，连续第十个月低于50不变大关，这增强了人们对宽松政策背景的预期。

The S&P/TSX Composite rose about 0.6% to trade above 30,300 for the first time on Friday, putting the Toronto market on track for a weekly gain of more than 1.8% as tech and commodity producers led the advance while hopes for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut outweighed concerns about a US government shutdown. Mega-cap Shopify jumped nearly 6% after Rothschild Redburn raised its price target to $200 from $180 while keeping a Buy rating and citing OpenAI’s Instant Checkout integration as a fresh monetization lever. Miners outperformed with Agnico Eagle, Wheaton Precious Metals and Franco-Nevada adding about 1% to 1.2% as gold pushed to record highs. Energy producers also traded firmly after oil steadied following this week’s sharp selloff. Economically, Canada’s manufacturing PMI remained in contraction at 46.3, the tenth consecutive month below the 50 no-change mark, reinforcing expectations of a looser policy backdrop.

标准普尔全球加拿大服务业采购经理人指数从48.6降至2025年9月的46.3，这是连续第三次收缩，也是三个月来最弱的一次。缺乏新业务，特别是出口业务，对活动造成了压力，而闲置产能导致未完成工作出现了五年多来最大的下降。自4月以来，员工人数首次被削减，公司表示没有更换离职人员和裁员。尽管气候艰难，但对未来一年的信心仍升至2024年10月以来的最高水平。在人员和燃料费用的推动下，成本压力上升，导致三个月来投入价格涨幅最大，尽管竞争压力限制了公司提高销售价格的能力。

The S&P Global Canada Services PMI fell to 46.3 in September 2025 from 48.6, marking the third straight contraction and the weakest reading in three months. A lack of new business, particularly from exports, weighed on activity, while spare capacity led to the steepest decline in outstanding work in over five years. Staffing levels were cut for the first time since April, with firms citing non-replacement of leavers and layoffs. Despite the tough climate, sentiment for the year ahead improved to its highest since October 2024. Cost pressures rose, driven by staffing and fuel expenses, leading to the sharpest input price increase in three months, though competitive pressures limited firms’ ability to raise selling prices.