美国30年期国债 (US30Y) 加自选

美元：美元保持上涨–ING。DXY美元指数保持上涨，不难看出原因。ING的Chris Turner指出，随着市场不再为12月美联储降息定价，美国利率正在小幅上调。

USD: Dollar holds gains – ING.The DXY dollar index is holding gains and it is not hard to see why. US rates are being repriced modestly higher as the market shifts away from pricing a December Fed rate cut, ING's Chris Turner notes.

周四，比特币突破97000美元，创下新高，并逐渐接近关键的10万美元大关，因为唐纳德·特朗普即将重返白宫，引发了人们对更有利的美国监管环境的乐观情绪。在整个竞选过程中，特朗普一直表示强烈支持加密货币，承诺使美国成为“地球上的加密货币之都”，并积累全国性的比特币储备。在选举之后，总部位于美国的比特币ETF吸引了超过40亿美元的资金流入。与此同时，Galaxy Digital Holdings首席执行官Mike Novogratz在X上强调，各国越来越多地大量购买比特币，这表明比特币在全球范围内的采用发生了显著转变。

Bitcoin broke above $97,000 on Thursday, hitting fresh record highs and inching closer to the key $100,000 mark as Donald Trump's imminent return to the White House raised optimism about a more favorable US regulatory environment. Throughout his campaign, Trump has expressed strong support for cryptocurrencies, pledging to make the US the “crypto capital of the planet” and to accumulate a national stockpile of Bitcoin. In the wake of the election, US-based Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $4 billion in inflows. Meanwhile, Galaxy Digital Holdings CEO Mike Novogratz highlighted on X that countries are increasingly purchasing Bitcoin in large volumes, signaling a notable shift toward global adoption of the digital currency.

美国货币市场现在认为，美联储12月降息25个基点的可能性仅为50%。地缘政治的发展不断占据头条新闻。昨日交易时段开始时，风险情绪有所改善，因为有传言称俄罗斯总统普京将对与美国就乌克兰停火协议进行谈判持开放态度。

US Money Markets Now Put Probability of 25 bps Fed Rate Cut in December at Only 50%.Geopolitical developments keep hijacking headlines. Risk sentiment improved at the start of yesterday's trading session on talk that Russian president Putin would be open to talks on a ceasefire deal in Ukraine with the US.

周四，美国10年期国债收益率稳定在4.4%左右，这得益于人们对特朗普政策可能助长通货膨胀并可能限制美联储未来降息的预期。投资者现在正密切关注特朗普的潜在内阁提名人，以评估即将上任的政府是否会兑现其竞选承诺。与此同时，在货币政策方面，美联储理事米歇尔·鲍曼和丽莎·库克在周三的单独声明中就通胀前景和未来降息路径发出了喜忧参半的信号。展望未来，投资者关注即将公布的数据，包括首次申请失业救济人数和现房销售，以及央行的进一步评论，以衡量经济和政策方向。

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note steadied around 4.4% on Thursday, supported by expectations that Trump’s policies could fuel inflation and potentially limit the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cuts. Investors are now closely watching Trump’s potential cabinet nominees to assess whether the incoming administration will follow through on its campaign promises. Meanwhile, on the monetary policy front, Fed governors Michelle Bowman and Lisa Cook offered mixed signals about the inflation outlook and the future path for rate cuts in separate statements on Wednesday. Looking ahead, investors are focused on upcoming data, including initial jobless claims and existing home sales, as well as further central bank commentary, to gauge the economic and policy direction.