加拿大6个月期国债 (Canada6M) 加自选

周五，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数上涨0.5%，收于27494点的新纪录，这得益于科技股的强劲表现，即使在唐纳德·特朗普总统对与加拿大谈判达成的贸易协议表示怀疑并暗示他的政府可能单方面征收关税之后。尽管如此，Shopify、Constellation Software和Celestica仍领涨，各上涨0.9%至4.2%，而黄金矿商Agnico Eagle和Barrick Mining分别上涨1.3%和1.6%，因贸易战担忧缓解，金价下跌。展望未来，市场焦点转向加拿大银行和美联储下周的政策决定。本周，多伦多证交所上涨0.7%。

The S&P/TSX Composite climbed 0.5% to finish at a fresh record of 27,494 on Friday, powered by a strong showing in technology stocks even after President Donald Trump cast doubt on a negotiated trade deal with Canada and suggested his administration might impose tariffs unilaterally. Still, Shopify, Constellation Software, and Celestica led the advance, each adding between 0.9% and 4.2%, while gold miners Agnico Eagle and Barrick Mining rose 1.3% and 1.6% respectively, bucking lower bullion prices as easing trade-war fears weighed on the yellow metal. Looking ahead, market focus turns to next week’s policy decisions from the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve. For the week, the TSX posted a 0.7% gain.

加拿大政府在2025年5月公布了2.3亿加元的预算赤字，而2024年5月的预算盈余为11.72亿加元。这一转变在很大程度上反映了收入增加了2600万加元（0.0%），其中较高的海关进口关税和污染定价收益被企业所得税和商品及服务税征收的减少所抵消。除净精算损失外，项目支出增加了26亿加元（8.3%），这是由于大多数主要支出类别的增加。公共债务费用下降了2亿加元（5.0%），因为国库券利率下降超过了实际回报债券消费者价格指数调整的增加。在2025-26财年的前两个月（4月至5月），联邦预算赤字为58亿加元，而2024-25财年同期为26亿加元。

Canada’s government posted a budget deficit of CAD 0.23 billion in May 2025, compared with a surplus of CAD 1.172 billion in May 2024. This shift largely reflected a CAD 26 million (0.0%) increase in revenues, where higher customs import duties and pollution pricing proceeds were offset by declines in corporate income tax and Goods and Services Tax collections. Program expenses, excluding net actuarial losses, rose by CAD 2.6 billion (8.3%), driven by increases across most major spending categories. Public debt charges fell by CAD 0.2 billion (5.0%) as lower interest rates on treasury bills outweighed higher Consumer Price Index adjustments on Real Return Bonds. For the first two months of fiscal year 2025–26 (April to May), the federal budget deficit stood at CAD 5.8 billion, compared to CAD 2.6 billion in the same period of 2024–25.

加拿大央行准备保持利率稳定，公布新的预测。我们预计加拿大央行周三将再次保持隔夜利率不变，而周四公布的加拿大5月份国内生产总值（GDP）报告可能会显示0.2%的更大跌幅，尽管预计大部分跌幅将在6月份逆转。

Bank of Canada Poised to Hold Rates Steady, Unveil New Projections.We're expecting the Bank of Canada to leave the overnight rate unchanged again on Wednesday, while Thursday's May's gross domestic product (GDP) report for Canada will likely show a larger 0.2% decline, though most of it is expected to have reversed in June.

周五，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数上涨约0.1%，收于27390点以上，与全球市场温和上涨相呼应，交易员在特朗普总统即将到来的8月1日关税最后期限前屏住呼吸。Shopify和Celestica领涨，均上涨超过1%，而贸易战担忧的缓解导致金价下跌，削弱了矿商估值，艾芬豪、泰克资源和第一量子矿产等贱金属公司下跌超过1%。展望未来，注意力将转向加拿大银行和美联储下周的政策决定。本周，多伦多证交所有望录得约0.3%的温和涨幅。

The S&P/TSX Composite rose around 0.1% to above the 27,390 mark on Friday, echoing tepid gains on global markets as traders held their breath ahead of President Trump’s looming August 1st tariff deadline. Shopify and Celestica led the advance, each climbing over 1%, while easing trade-war concerns drove gold prices lower, undermining miner valuations, and sent base-metal names such as Ivanhoe, Teck Resources and First Quantum Minerals down more than 1%. Looking ahead, attention shifts to next week’s policy decisions from the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve. For the week, the TSX was poised to record a modest gain of about 0.3%.