加拿大6个月期国债 (Canada6M) 加自选

加拿大央行预测：预期降息。正如我们在10月份的《国际经济展望》中强调的那样，我们对加拿大银行的看法已经发生了变化。我们现在期待加拿大央行 在10月的会议上，将政策利率下调25个基点至2.25%，这标志着我们之前对12月和2026年全年保持政策利率的预测发生了转变。

Bank of Canada Preview: Rate Cut Expected.As we highlighted in our October International Economic Outlook, our views on the Bank of Canada (BoC) have changed. We now expect the BoC to cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 2.25% at October's meeting, marking a shift from our prior forecast of a hold through December and through all of 2026.

标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数周二上涨0.5%，收于30420点，科技股领涨，抵消了北美利率决定和繁忙的盈利日历之前大宗商品股的疲软。数据中心专家Celestica在上调2025年收入预期并报告第三季度收入和利润高于普遍预期后上涨7.3%，这清楚地表明了外包数据服务需求的弹性。Cameco股价飙升22.9%，因有消息称西屋电气和布鲁克菲尔德将与美国政府合作，计划建造至少800亿美元的新核反应堆，这一发展大大改善了铀的长期需求前景，并使布鲁克菲尔德上涨了1.2%。加拿大最大的石油生产商加拿大天然气公司将于周四发布报告，普遍认为该公司的收入更高，但收益更薄，这有助于解释为什么能源公司的名字喜忧参半。市场预计加拿大央行和美联储本周将降息25个基点，对利率敏感的增长故事仍然是人们关注的焦点。

The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.5% to close at 30,420 on Tuesday as a tech-led advance offset weakness in commodity names ahead of North American rate decisions and a busy earnings calendar. Data centre specialist Celestica jumped 7.3% after raising its 2025 revenue outlook and reporting Q3 revenue and profit above consensus, a clear signal of resilient demand for outsourced data services. Cameco surged 22.9% on news that Westinghouse Electric and Brookfield will partner with the US government on plans to build at least USD 80 billion of new nuclear reactors, a development that materially improves the long term demand outlook for uranium and lifted Brookfield 1.2%. Canada’s largest oil producer Canadian Natural is due to report on Thursday with consensus models flagging stronger revenue but thinner earnings, which helps explain why energy names were mixed. With markets expecting 25bp cuts from the Bank of Canada and the US Fed this week, rate sensitive growth stories remain in focus.

今日外汇：美联储与加拿大央行 预计将降低利率。今日外汇：美联储与加拿大央行 预计将降低利率

FX Today: The Fed and the BoC are expected to lower their rates.FX Today: The Fed and the BoC are expected to lower their rates

加元兑美元汇率超过1.40加元，徘徊在月度高点附近，因为在加拿大银行的政策决定之前，美加利率差收窄，国内基本面坚挺，美元走软。加元受到美元普遍疲软的支撑，而市场预计美联储和中国银行将降息近25个基点。然而，即使在从5%的峰值累计宽松275个基点之后，加拿大的相对利率前景仍然更加有利，2.25%的政策利率继续提供正的实际收益率，而整体CPI为2.4%。分析人士认为，本周的降息可能标志着中国央行宽松周期的结束，在温和的通胀压力和7.1%的失业率下，官员们预计将采取中性到鹰派的基调，以维护信誉。与此同时，有弹性的原油和非能源出口价格正在支撑加拿大的外部平衡，随着全球央行转向宽松政策，帮助加元跑赢同行。

The Canadian dollar strengthened past C$1.40 per US dollar, hovering near monthly highs as narrowing US–Canada rate differentials, firm domestic fundamentals, and a weaker greenback converged ahead of the Bank of Canada’s policy decision. The loonie drew support from broad US dollar softness, while markets priced in near-certain 25 bps cuts from both the Fed and the BoC. Canada’s relative rate outlook, however, remains more favorable even after a 275 bps cumulative easing from its 5% peak, the 2.25% policy rate continues to deliver positive real yields against a 2.4% headline CPI. Analysts view this week’s cut as likely marking the end of the BoC’s easing cycle, with officials expected to strike a neutral-to-hawkish tone to safeguard credibility amid mild inflation pressures and a 7.1% unemployment rate. Meanwhile, resilient crude and non-energy export prices are bolstering Canada’s external balance, helping the loonie outperform peers as global central banks pivot to looser policy.