木材期货跌至每千板英尺600美元,从2022年5月8月1日达到的695.5美元的高点回落,因为需求疲软、供应复苏和贸易相关扭曲共同给市场带来了压力。7月份,美国建筑许可证降至2020年6月以来的最低水平,而抵押贷款利率的前景表明可能会上升,未售出房屋库存的增加进一步限制了当前的建筑需求,冷却了木材的核心市场。在供应方面,加拿大工厂在早些时候减产后增加了产量,加拿大统计局显示,产量和出货量将恢复到2025年中期。迄今为止,针对加拿大流动的关税和贸易措施已经改变了木材的流向,而不是造成稀缺,使库存进一步增加并限制了价格上涨,尽管受鲍威尔杰克逊霍尔言论影响的全球利率预期暗示了对未来需求的潜在支持。
Lumber futures fell toward $600 per thousand board feet, retreating from the May 2022 high of $695.5 reached on August 1st, as weakening demand, recovering supply, and trade-related distortions jointly pressured the market. US building permits dropped to their lowest level since June 2020 in July, while the outlook for mortgage rates points to potential increases, and rising inventories of unsold homes further constrained immediate construction demand, cooling the core market for lumber. On the supply side, Canadian mills have ramped up output following earlier curtailments, and Statistics Canada shows production and shipments recovering into mid-2025. Tariffs and trade measures targeting Canadian flows have so far redirected lumber rather than creating scarcity, allowing inventories to build further and limiting price gains, even as global interest rate expectations, influenced by Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks, suggested potential support for future demand.