南非全股指数 (JALSHAllShare) 加自选

南非10年期政府债券收益率攀升至9.80%以上，高于最近5个月的低点9.56%，原因是联合政府内部再次出现摩擦，政治不确定性日益增加。在副贸易部长被解职后，南非团结政府的紧张局势加剧。副贸易部长是拉马福萨总统的政党非洲人国民大会（ANC）的主要联盟伙伴的政治家。与此同时，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁要对支持他所谓的“反美金砖四国政策”的国家征收10%的关税。这一警告是在包括南非在内的金砖国家领导人开始在里约热内卢举行峰会之际发出的。在暂停谈判之前，南非已经对某些进口产品征收10%的关税和30%的额外关税。自5月以来，比勒陀利亚一直在寻求一项贸易协议，豁免汽车、汽车零部件、钢铁和铝等关键出口产品，以换取购买美国液化天然气的10年承诺。

The yield on the South African 10-year government bond climbed above 9.80%, up from recent 5-month lows of 9.56%, amid growing political uncertainty caused by renewed friction within the coalition government. Tensions have intensified in South Africa's unity government following the sacking of the deputy trade minister, a politician from the main coalition partner of President Ramaphosa's party the African National Congress (ANC). Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump threatened a 10% tariff on nations supporting what he called an “anti-American BRIC policy.” The warning came as BRICS leaders—including South Africa—began a summit in Rio de Janeiro. South Africa had already faced a 10% tariff and an additional 30% duty on certain imports before a pause was implemented to allow for negotiations. Since May, Pretoria has been seeking a trade deal to exempt key exports—such as autos, auto parts, steel, and aluminum—in exchange for a 10-year commitment to purchase US liquefied natural gas.

在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁对与金砖国家集团结盟的国家征收10%的关税后，南非兰特贬值超过1%，至1美元兑17.8兰特左右，为6月27日以来的最低水平。特朗普还重申了此前的警告，即如果金砖国家在双边贸易中放弃美元，将对其征收高达100%的关税，并引用了他所说的日益反美的政策。他还警告其他国家不要加入该联盟。在谈判暂时暂停之前，南非已经对某些进口商品征收10%的关税和30%的额外关税，此后要求有更多时间在7月9日的最后期限之前与特朗普政府敲定贸易协议。与此同时，南非总统西里尔·拉马福萨面临着一场新的内部危机，此前一名警察官员指责他的一名部长干涉了对政治暗杀的调查。

The South African rand depreciated more than 1% to around 17.8 per USD, the lowest level since June 27, following remarks by US President Donald Trump threatening a 10% tariff on countries aligning themselves with the BRICS bloc. Trump also reiterated previous warnings of imposing tariffs of up to 100% on BRICS nations should they abandon the US dollar in bilateral trade, citing what he described as increasingly anti-American policies. He further warned other countries against joining the alliance. South Africa was already hit with a 10% tariff and an additional 30% duty on certain imports before a temporary pause for negotiations, and has since requested more time to finalize a trade deal with the Trump administration ahead of the July 9 deadline. In the meantime, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is confronting a new internal crisis after a police official accused one of his ministers of interfering in an investigation into political assassinations.

南非的外汇储备总额从上个月的681.16亿美元增至2025年6月的684.15亿美元，创下历史新高。这是由于特别提款权持有量增加（65.24亿美元对64.39亿美元）和外汇储备增加（486.52亿美元对484亿美元）。与此同时，黄金储备减少（132.39亿美元对132.77亿美元）。此外，代表央行未结算或掉期交易的远期头寸从上个月的5.28亿美元增加到5月份的5.32亿美元。与此同时，黄金储备有所减少（132.39亿美元对132.77亿美元）。

Gross foreign exchange reserves in South Africa rose to a new all-time high of $68.415 billion in June 2025 from $68.116 billion in the previous month. This was driven by increases in SDR holdings ($6.524 billion vs $6.439 billion) and foreign currency reserves ($48.652 billion vs $48.4 billion). Meanwhile, gold reserves decreased ($13.239 billion vs $13.277 billion). Additionally, the forward position, representing the central bank’s unsettled or swap transactions, increased to $0.532 billion in May from $0.528 billion in the prior month. Meanwhile, gold reserves eased ($13.239 billion vs $13.277 billion).

标准普尔南非全球采购经理人指数从5月份的50.8降至2025年6月的50.1，表明在产出和新订单再次下降的情况下，私营部门活动增长疲软，几乎处于中性状态。出口需求连续第三个月减弱，导致新业务下滑。产出水平三个月来首次出现收缩，只有服务业表现出弹性。在价格方面，由于购买价格上涨和工资通胀加速，尤其是批发和零售业，投入成本上涨速度加快。尽管如此，销售价格通胀仍然温和，因为公司试图保持竞争力，并利用兰特走强来降低一些价格。展望未来，由于对国内和全球政策的担忧加剧，商业信心降至2021年7月以来的最低水平。尽管如此，公司在三个月内第二次增加了人员编制，创造就业机会的速度是自2024年5月以来最快的。

The S&P Global South Africa PMI fell to 50.1 in June 2025 from 50.8 in May, indicating softer growth and nearly neutral conditions in private sector activity amid renewed declines in output and new orders. Export demand weakened for the third straight month, contributing to the downturn in new business. Output levels contracted for the first time in three months, with only the services sector showing resilience. On the price front, input costs rose at a quicker pace, driven by higher purchase prices and accelerating wage inflation, especially in wholesale and retail. Still, selling price inflation remained modest, as firms sought to stay competitive and took advantage of a stronger rand to cut some prices. Looking ahead, business confidence fell to its lowest level since July 2021, amid rising concerns over domestic and global policy. Nevertheless, firms increased staffing for the second time in three months, with the pace of job creation the fastest since May 2024.