南非全股指数 (JALSHAllShare) 加自选

受美元走强和贵金属（尤其是黄金）价格下跌的压力，南非兰特兑美元汇率小幅下跌至17.8左右。6月4日，在立法者批准了国家财政部的财政计划，为6月11日议会下院的投票批准扫清了道路后，人民币兑美元汇率早些时候攀升至五个月高点17.75。财政部长Enoch Godongwana于5月提出的第三个预算版本取消了有争议的增值税上调，同时引入了削减开支和提高燃油税。与此同时，南非经济在2025年第一季度勉强避免了收缩，仅增长了0.1%，低于2024年第四季度的0.4%，主要得益于农业。这些数据加剧了人们对该国经济停滞的担忧，联合政府的复苏承诺迅速失去了可信度。近年来，电力限制和铁路和港口基础设施的持续物流瓶颈严重阻碍了经济活动。

The South African rand dipped slightly to around 17.8 per USD, pressured by a stronger dollar and falling prices of precious metals, particularly gold. The currency had earlier climbed to a five-month peak of 17.75 per USD on June 4 after lawmakers endorsed the National Treasury’s fiscal plan, clearing the way for approval in a June 11 vote in the lower house of parliament. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s third budget version, presented in May, dropped the controversial VAT increase while introducing spending cuts and higher fuel levies. Meanwhile, South Africa’s economy narrowly avoided contraction in Q1 2025, growing by just 0.1%, down from 0.4% in Q4 2024, mostly backed by agriculture. The data amplified concerns over economic stagnation in the country, with the coalition government’s recovery promises rapidly losing credibility. Power restrictions and persistent logistical bottlenecks in rail and port infrastructure have significantly hindered economic activity in recent years.

南非的外汇储备总额从上个月的675.85亿美元增至2025年5月的681.16亿美元，创下历史新高。这是由于黄金储备（132.77亿美元对4月份的131.92亿美元）、特别提款权持有量（64.39亿美元对64.36亿美元）和外汇储备（484亿美元对479.57亿美元）的增加。与此同时，代表央行未结算或掉期交易的远期头寸从上月的7.91亿美元降至5月的5.28亿美元。

Gross foreign exchange reserves in South Africa increased to a fresh record high of $68.116 billion in May 2025, from $67.585 billion in the previous month. This was driven by increases in gold reserves ($13.277 billion vs $13.192 billion in April), SDR holdings ($6.439 billion vs $6.436 billion), and foreign currency reserves ($48.4 billion vs $47.957 billion). Meanwhile, the forward position, representing the central bank's unsettled or swap transactions, decreased to $0.528 billion in May from $0.791 billion in the prior month.

2025年第一季度，南非的经常账户赤字从前三个月修订后的393亿南非兰特收窄至356亿南非兰特。由于进口（+3.6%）的增长速度快于出口（+2.9%），2025年第一季度的商品顺差从2024年第四季度的2264亿南非兰特略微降至2212亿南非兰特。与此同时，服务、收入和经常转移账户的缺口从第四季度的2657亿南非兰特缩小到2568亿南非兰特，这是由于服务和收入赤字减少，抵消了更大的经常转移缺口。与上一季度相比，第一季度经常账户缺口占GDP的比例基本保持不变，为0.5%。

South Africa's current account deficit narrowed to ZAR 35.6 billion in Q1 2025, from a revised ZAR 39.3 billion in the previous three-month period. The goods surplus fell slightly to ZAR 221.2 billion in the first quarter of 2025 from ZAR 226.4 billion in Q4 2024, as imports (+3.6%) increased more rapidly than exports (+2.9%). Meanwhile, the shortfall on the services, income, and current transfer account narrowed to ZAR 256.8 billion from ZAR 265.7 billion in Q4, driven by smaller services and income deficits that offset a wider current transfer gap. As a ratio of GDP, the current account gap remained broadly unchanged at 0.5% in Q1 compared to the preceding quarter.

南非10年期政府债券收益率降至10%左右，为1月29日以来的最低水平，对国家预算的通过持乐观态度。在一个关键的立法者小组批准了国家财政部的财政框架后，南非向批准其年度预算又迈进了一步，该框架规定了经济政策、收入预测和政府支出限制。此前，执政联盟成员曾两次拒绝，这表明对修订后的计划的共识日益增强。在经济数据方面，南非的国内生产总值在第四季度增长0.4%后，在2025年第一季度仅增长了0.1%，这主要是由于农业的出色表现。这些数字反映了南非经济的持续疲软，突显了加快政府政策中已经概述的大规模基础设施支出的必要性。

The yield on the South African 10-year government bond eased to around 10%, its lowest level since January 29, amid optimism around the passage of the national budget. South Africa moved a step closer to approving its annual budget after a key panel of lawmakers endorsed the National Treasury’s fiscal framework, which establishes economic policy, revenue projections and limits on government spending. The backing follows two earlier rejections by members of the governing coalition and signals a growing consensus around the revised plan. On the economic data front, South Africa’s GDP increased by a meagre 0.1% in Q1 2025, following an increase of 0.4% in Q4, mainly due to the agriculture's stellar performance. The figures reflect the persistent weakness in South Africa’s economy, highlighting the need to accelerate the large-scale infrastructure spending already outlined in government policy.