南非全股指数 (JALSHAllShare) 加自选

南非制造业产量在2月份暴跌3.2%后，在2025年3月同比下降0.8%。这标志着工业活动连续第五个月下降，尽管这是该序列中最温和的一个月。几个行业的产出继续下降，但在某些情况下下降速度较慢：电机（-12.2%对-9%）、石油、化工产品、橡胶和塑料制品（-2.5%对-5.4%）、木材和木制品、纸张、出版和印刷（-2.1%对-3.2%）以及食品和饮料（-0.4%对-0.2%）。此外，玻璃和非金属矿产品（4.4%对-7%）以及纺织品、服装、皮革和鞋类（1.8%对-1.4%）也出现了显著反弹。经季节性调整的月度数据显示，3月份制造业产出在上个月上调0.7%后，收缩了2.2%。与2024年第四季度相比，2025年第一季度的工业产出下降了2.3%。

South Africa’s manufacturing production fell by 0.8% year-on-year in March 2025, following a 3.2% slump in February. This marked the fifth consecutive month of declines in industrial activity, although it was the mildest in the sequence. Output continued to decline in several sectors, but at a slower pace in some cases: electrical machinery (-12.2% vs -9%), petroleum, chemical products, rubber, and plastic products (-2.5% vs -5.4%), wood and wood products, paper, publishing, and printing (-2.1% vs -3.2%), and food & beverages (-0.4% vs -0.2%). In addition, significant rebounds were observed in glass and non-metallic mineral products (4.4% vs -7%), and textiles, clothing, leather, and footwear (1.8% vs. -1.4%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, manufacturing output shrank by 2.2% in March, after an upwardly revised 0.7% rise in the prior month. Industrial output decreased by 2.3% in the first quarter of 2025 compared with the fourth quarter of 2024.

2025年4月，南非的外汇储备总额从上个月的674.5亿美元升至675.85亿美元的历史新高。这是由于黄金储备（131.92亿美元对3月份的125.88亿美元）和特别提款权持有量（64.36亿美元对63.06亿美元）的增加。此外，代表央行未结算或掉期交易的远期头寸从上个月的5.26亿美元增加到4月份的7.91亿美元。与此同时，外汇储备从485.56亿美元降至479.57亿美元。

Gross foreign exchange reserves in South Africa rose to a new all-time high of $67.585 billion in April 2025, from $67.450 billion in the previous month. This was driven by increases in gold reserves ($13.192 billion vs $12.588 billion in March) and SDR holdings ($6.436 billion vs $6.306 billion). Additionally, the forward position, representing the central bank's unsettled or swap transactions, increased to $0.791 billion in April from $0.526 billion in the prior month. Meanwhile, foreign currency reserves decreased to $47.957 billion vs $48.556 billion.

南非兰特兑美元汇率约为18.2，接近最近一个月的高点，与其他新兴市场货币一样，对美中贸易紧张局势的潜在缓解持乐观态度。在国内，Eskom承诺稳定的冬季电力供应提振了市场情绪，而有报道称，总统西里尔·拉马福萨将很快启动Vulindlela行动的第二阶段，以刺激包容性经济增长。在货币政策方面，南非储备银行（SARB）预计将采取谨慎立场，在全球持续存在不确定性的情况下，可能会在5月份保持利率不变。市场预计7月将降息25个基点，11月将再次降息。南非3月份的CPI通胀率从前两个月的3.2%降至2.7%，低于储备银行设定的3-6%的目标范围。

The South African rand traded around 18.2 per USD, nearing recent one-month highs, alongside other emerging market currencies amid optimism over a potential easing of US-China trade tensions. Domestically, sentiment was bolstered by Eskom’s pledge of stable winter power supply, while reports indicated President Cyril Ramaphosa will soon launch the second phase of Operation Vulindlela to spur inclusive economic growth. On the monetary policy front, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to adopt a cautious stance, likely keeping interest rates unchanged in May amid persistent global uncertainty. Markets anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut in July, followed by another in November. South Africa’s CPI inflation eased to 2.7% in March, down from 3.2% in each of the previous two months, falling below the Reserve Bank’s 3–6% target range.

标准普尔南非全球采购经理人指数从3月份的48.3升至2025年4月的50.0，表明在经历了四个月的收缩后趋于稳定。产出、新订单和就业的温和反弹推动了这一改善，一些公司表示需求和营销成功增强。服务业引领增长，而工业则因产量下降而滞后。值得注意的是，供应商交货时间自2023年年中以来首次改善，这得益于德班港口拥堵的减少。随着企业对缓解供应问题的反应，采购活动也有所增加，尽管库存略有下降。在价格方面，受兰特疲软和进口价格上涨的推动，投入成本通胀急剧加速至八个月来的最高点，促使企业在暂停一个月后提高售价。展望未来，由于持续的政治和经济不确定性，商业预期减弱，达到19个月来的第二低水平。尽管如此，仍有40%的公司对未来的产量持乐观态度。

The S&P Global South Africa PMI rose to 50.0 in April 2025 from 48.3 in March, signaling stabilization after four months of contraction. Modest rebounds in output, new orders, and employment drove the improvement, with some firms citing stronger demand and marketing success. Services led growth, while industry lagged with a decline in production. Notably, supplier delivery times improved for the first time since mid-2023, aided by reduced congestion at Durban's port. Purchasing activity also rose as firms responded to easing supply issues, though inventories dipped slightly. On prices, input cost inflation accelerated sharply to an eight-month high, driven by rand weakness and higher import prices, prompting firms to raise selling prices after a one-month reprieve. Looking ahead, business expectations weakened, reaching the second-lowest level in 19 months, amid continued political and economic uncertainty. Nonetheless, 40% of firms remained optimistic about future output.