南非全股指数 (JALSHAllShare) 加自选

2025年2月，南非较大城市批准的建筑计划价值同比下降9%，至82亿南非兰特，此前一个月修订后激增33.2%。这是自2024年11月以来的首次下降，也是八个月来的最大降幅，原因是住宅建筑许可证下降了32%（1月份为19.7%）。与此同时，非住宅建筑许可证增加了40.6%（对83.7%），增建和改建增加了4.8%（对35.3%）。

The value of building plans approved in South Africa's larger municipalities declined by 9% year-on-year to ZAR 8.2 billion in February 2025, following a revised 33.2% surge in the previous month. This marks the first decrease since November 2024 and the largest in eight months, driven by a 32% drop in residential building permits (vs 19.7% in January). Meanwhile, non-residential building permits increased by 40.6% (vs 83.7%), and additions and alteration rose by 4.8% (vs 35.3%).

南非投资者在政治动荡后面临全球增长风暴云。投资者纷纷涌向南非国内债券市场，押注该国能够在政治分裂的情况下坚持改革，但关税威胁和全球增长放缓的前景正在投下长长的阴影。

South Africa investors face global growth storm clouds after choppy politics.Investors have flocked to South Africa's domestic bond markets, betting the country can stay the course on reforms despite political fractures, but tariff threats and the prospect of a global growth slowdown are casting a long shadow.

南非兰特兑美元汇率约为18.9，为4月初以来的最高水平，因美元因对美国关税和潜在经济放缓的担忧而下跌。与此同时，南非储备银行在其最新的《货币政策评论》中警告称，在通胀风险加剧的情况下，世界各地的主要央行将对货币政策采取谨慎态度。央行强调，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普征收的全面关税对经济增长构成了新的风险，如果全面实施，可能会严重影响国内经济。萨班斯法案州长Lesetja Kganyago警告称，如果最坏的情况发生，国内生产总值可能会萎缩0.69%，而不是其希望的1.7%的增长。在政治方面，市场押注联合政府（GNU）将保持不变，尽管预算存在分歧，最近有报道称执政的非国大可能会撤回拟议的增值税上调。

The South African rand traded around 18.9 per USD, its highest level since early April, as the dollar faltered amid renewed concerns over U.S. tariffs and a potential economic slowdown. Meanwhile, in its latest Monetary Policy Review, the South African Reserve Bank cautioned that major central banks across the world were set to adopt a cautious approach on monetary policy amid heightened inflation risks. The central bank emphasized that the sweeping tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump pose new risks to growth and could severely impact the domestic economy if fully implemented. Sarb Governor Lesetja Kganyago has warned that, should its worst-case scenario play out, the GDP could shrink by 0.69% instead of the gain of 1.7% it hopes for. On the political front, markets are betting that the coalition government (GNU) will remain intact despite budget disagreements and recent reports that the ruling ANC may backtrack on a proposed VAT increase.

2025年2月，南非零售额同比增长3.9%，前一个月增长7%，其中普通经销商（3.4%对1月的7.6%）和家用家具、电器和设备（6.7%对7.9%）的增长较慢。此外，专卖店的食品、饮料和烟草销售额下降（-3.7%对7.5%）；五金、油漆和玻璃（-4.1%对2.1%）以及药品和医疗用品、化妆品和 化妆品（-0.7%对6.9%）。另一方面，纺织品、服装、鞋类和皮革制品的销售额显著增长（15.7%对10.8%）。经季节性调整的月度数据显示，2月份零售业下降1.3%，而前一个月下降0.7%。与截至2024年2月的三个月相比，截至2025年2月，零售贸易额增长了4.4%。

South Africa’s retail sales rose by 3.9% year-on-year in February 2025, following a 7% jump in the previous month, with slower growth recorded among general dealers (3.4% vs 7.6% in January) and household furniture, appliances, and equipment (6.7% vs 7.9%). Moreover, sales declined for food, beverages and tobacco in specialised stores (-3.7% vs 7.5%); hardware, paint and glass (-4.1% vs 2.1%) and pharmaceuticals and medical goods, cosmetics and toiletries (-0.7% vs 6.9%). On the other hand, notable growth was observed in sales of textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods (15.7% vs 10.8%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, retail trade fell by 1.3% in February, after a downwardly revised 0.7% increase in the prior month. Retail trade sales grew by 4.4% in the three months ended February 2025 compared with the three months ended February 2024.