由于对国家预算和政治风险的担忧,南非10年期政府债券收益率自12月中旬以来稳步攀升,超过10.90%,为2024年6月以来的最高水平。虽然国家财政部的财政整顿努力和民族团结政府的成立改善了投资者情绪,但人们对政府实现可持续增长和财政纪律的能力仍持怀疑态度。财政部长Enoch Godongwana于3月12日提交了一份修订后的预算,尽管在两年内将拟议的增值税上调从2个百分点降至1个百分点,但该预算仍被大多数主要议会政党拒绝。在后种族隔离时代,预算可能无法在3月31日财政年度结束前通过,这是第一次,因为戈东瓦纳的非国大需要至少一个其他主要政党的支持。这是非国大在南非民主时代首次失去议会多数席位后成立的联盟面临的最大考验。
South Africa's 10-year government bond yield has climbed steadily since mid-December, surpassing 10.90%, its highest since June 2024, amid concerns over the national budget and political risks. While the National Treasury’s fiscal consolidation efforts and the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU) have improved investor sentiment, doubts linger about the government’s ability to achieve sustainable growth and fiscal discipline. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana presented a revised budget on March 12, which was rejected by most major parliamentary parties despite reducing the proposed VAT hike from 2 to 1 percentage point over two years. For the first time in the post-apartheid era, the budget may not pass before the fiscal year ends on March 31, as Godongwana’s ANC needs support from at least one other major party. This represents the biggest test for the coalition formed after the ANC lost its parliamentary majority for the first time in South Africa’s democratic era.