南非全股指数 (JALSHAllShare) 加自选

2025年4月，南非黄金产量同比下降2.5%，较上月11.1%的下降有所缓解。这一下降对采矿总产量的总体同比变化贡献了负0.3个百分点。经季节性调整后，4月份黄金产量反弹9.1%，扭转了3月份2.0%的下降趋势。

Gold production in South Africa fell 2.5% year-on-year in April 2025, easing from an 11.1% decline in the previous month. The drop contributed a negative 0.3 percentage point to the overall year-on-year change in total mining output. On a seasonally adjusted basis, gold production rebounded 9.1% in April, reversing a 2.0% decline in March.

2025年4月，南非的采矿产量比一年前下降了7.7%，此前一个月修正后下降了2.5%，降幅超过预期的4.3%。最新数据显示，该国钢铁行业已连续第六个月出现下滑，且步伐稳健，其中铂族金属（-24.1%对3月份的-9.9%）、镍（-21.9%对-0.3%）和铜（-9.5%对3.2%）领跌。建筑材料的产量也有所下降（-6.1%对-1%）；其他非金属矿物（-5.2%对8.9%）；黄金（-2.5%对-11.1%）和煤炭（-1.7%对1.2%）。相反，其他金属矿物的增幅最大（16.5%对4.4%）；钻石（10.1%对1.4%）和铁矿石（5.3%对7.5%）。经季节性调整的月度数据显示，4月份采矿产量增长了0.6%，而前一个月上调了3.6%。与前三个月相比，截至2025年4月的三个月内，采矿产量下降了2.7%。

Mining production in South Africa slipped by 7.7% over a year ago in April 2025, following a revised 2.5% decline in the prior month and more than an expected 4.3% drop. The latest reading pointed to the sixth consecutive month of downturn in the country's sector, and at a solid pace, led by PGMs (-24.1% vs -9.9% in March), nickel (-21.9% vs -0.3%) and copper (-9.5% vs 3.2%). Output also decreased for building materials (-6.1% vs -1-1%); other non-metallic minerals (-5.2% vs 8.9%); gold (-2.5% vs -11.1%) and coal (-1.7% vs 1.2%). Conversely, the biggest increases were seen for other metallic minerals (16.5% vs 4.4%); diamonds (10.1% vs 1.4%) and iron ore (5.3% vs 7.5%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, mining output rose by 0.6% in April, after an upwardly revised 3.6% advance in the prior month. Mining production shrank by 2.7% in the three months ended April 2025 compared with the previous three months.

南非兰特兑美元汇率约为17.3，接近12月以来的最高水平，受美元走软和贵金属价格上涨的支撑，尤其是铂金和黄金。货币也因积极的财政发展和对改善与美国关系的乐观情绪而走强。南非国民议会在两个最大政党——非洲人国民大会（ANC）和民主联盟（DA）的支持下批准了财政部的财政框架，在就增税进行了长时间辩论后，使年度预算更接近通过。与此同时，西里尔·拉马福萨总统和美国总统唐纳德·特朗普将于6月15日至17日在加拿大举行的七国集团峰会上第二次会晤，讨论预计将集中在《非洲增长与机会法》和美国-南非关税问题上，此前南非修订了贸易和投资提案。

The South African rand traded around 17.3 per USD, holding near its strongest level since December, supported by a softer dollar and rising precious metal prices, particularly platinum and gold. The currency also found strength from positive fiscal developments and optimism over improved ties with the United States. South Africa’s National Assembly approved the Treasury’s fiscal framework, with backing from the two largest political parties—the African National Congress (ANC) and the Democratic Alliance (DA)—bringing the annual budget closer to adoption after extended debate over tax increases. Meanwhile, President Cyril Ramaphosa and US President Donald Trump are set to meet for the second time at the G7 Summit in Canada from June 15 to 17, with discussions expected to focus on AGOA and US-South Africa tariffs, following South Africa’s revised trade and investment proposal.

南非工商会（SACCI）商业信心指数从上个月的六个月低点114.9升至2025年5月的115.8。受兰特走强、股市走强以及黄金和铂金价格上涨的支撑，情况略有改善。上个月的下降可能是由于对美国贸易政策的担忧，包括前总统特朗普威胁要征收30%的关税。由于美国是南非仅次于中国的第二大贸易伙伴，这些措施构成了重大风险。作为回应，南非政府在上个月拉马福萨总统和唐纳德·特朗普总统会晤后提出了几项贸易建议。在最初的提议被拒绝后，该国目前正在准备一份修订后的购买美国液化天然气的报价，并正在考虑采用美国技术来扩大国内天然气产量。

The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) business confidence index rose to 115.8 in May 2025 from a six-month low of 114.9 in the prior month. The slight improvement was supported by a firmer rand, stronger equity markets, and rising gold and platinum prices. The prior month’s decline was likely driven by fears over US trade policy, including former President Trump’s threat to impose 30% tariffs. As the US is South Africa’s second-largest trading partner after China, such measures pose a significant risk. In response, the South African government has made several trade proposals following last month’s meeting between President Ramaphosa and President Donald Trump. The country is now preparing a revised offer to purchase American LNG after its initial proposal was rejected and is also considering adopting US technology to expand domestic gas production.