南非全股指数 (JALSHAllShare) 加自选

南非10年期政府债券收益率约为8.9%，为2024年12月以来的最低水平，反映出投资者对该国经济基本面的信心有所改善。今年南非资产的强劲表现得到了财政整顿进展、联合政府（GNU）稳定以及更可靠的电力和增加基础设施投资等结构性改善的支持。南非储备银行的通缩努力和较低通胀目标的前景也是重要因素。通胀下降使央行今年三次下调基准利率，达到2022年1月以来的最低水平。与此同时，南非即将退出金融行动特别工作组的“灰色”名单，这可能会促进新的投资流入。2023年2月，该国被列入灰色名单，一直在解决反洗钱和反恐融资方面的战略缺陷。

South Africa’s 10-year government bond yield was around 8.9%, the lowest since December 2024, reflecting improved investor confidence in the country’s economic fundamentals. Strong performance in South African assets this year has been supported by progress on fiscal consolidation, the stability of the coalition government (GNU), alongside structural improvements such as more reliable electricity and increased infrastructure investment. Disinflation efforts by the South African Reserve Bank and prospects of a lower inflation target were also significant factors. Falling inflation allowed the central bank to cut its benchmark rate three times this year, reaching the lowest level since January 2022. Meanwhile, South Africa is on the verge of exiting the Financial Action Taskforce’s “grey” list, which could boost fresh investment inflows. Grey-listed in February 2023, the country has been tackling strategic shortcomings in anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing.

南非兰特兑美元汇率约为17.5，接近两周低点，受到贵金属价格下跌，尤其是黄金价格下跌的压力。在国内数据方面，南非的通货膨胀率从8月份的3.3%微升至9月份的3.4%，尽管低于分析师预测的3.5%。这可能会导致央行在11月20日的下一次会议上将政策利率保持在7%，以引导通胀率接近3%。7月，货币政策委员会表示，希望通胀率与3%-6%目标区间的下限保持一致，而不是与4.5%的中点保持一致，尽管该目标尚未正式改变。南非储备银行行长Lesetja Kganyago在2025年南非明日投资会议上表示，该国目前正处于“低通胀和稳定通胀”的时代，这应有助于降低通胀预期。尽管如此，他本月早些时候警告称，虽然通胀看起来“相对可控”，但短期内仍有可能出现超调。

The South African rand traded around 17.5 per USD, a near two-week low, pressured by declining prices of precious metals, particularly gold. On the domestic data front, South Africa's inflation edged higher to 3.4% in September from 3.3% in August, though below analysts' estimates of 3.5%. This might lead the central bank to keep its policy rate at 7% at its next meeting on November 20 in an effort to guide inflation toward 3%. In July, the MPC expressed a preference for inflation to align with the lower end of its 3%–6% target range rather than the 4.5% midpoint, though the target has not yet been formally changed. Speaking at the SA Tomorrow Investment Conference 2025, South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago said that the country is now in an era of “low and stable inflation,” which should help push inflation expectations lower. Nevertheless, he cautioned earlier this month that, while inflation looks “relatively contained,” near-term overshoots are still expected.

南非的年通货膨胀率从8月份的3.3%上升到2025年9月的3.4%，略低于市场预测的3.5%。它仍然在南非储备银行3%-6%的目标范围内。住房和公用事业价格增长加快（8月份为4.5%对4.3%），主要原因是电力、天然气和水供应；餐馆和酒店（3%对2.6%）和杂项商品和服务（2.8%对2.6%）。与此同时，运输成本下降速度较慢（-0.1%对-1.4%），其中燃料成本下降（-2.2%对-5.7%）。与此同时，食品价格（4.5%对5.2%）录得五个月来最小涨幅。核心通胀率（不包括食品、非酒精饮料、燃料和能源）从上个月的3.1%微升至2025年9月的七个月高点3.2%。9月份CPI环比上涨0.2%，而前一个月下降0.1%。

South Africa’s annual inflation rate ticked up to 3.4% in September 2025 from 3.3% in August, slightly below market forecasts of 3.5%. It remains comfortably within the South African Reserve Bank's target range of 3%-6%. Price growth accelerated primarily for housing & utilities (4.5% vs 4.3% in August), largely on account of electricity and gas and water supply; restaurants & hotels (3% vs 2.6%) and miscellaneous goods & services (2.8% vs 2.6%). At the same time, transportation costs declined at a slower pace (-0.1% vs -1.4%), of which fuels (-2.2% vs -5.7%). Meanwhile, food prices (4.5% vs 5.2%) recorded the smallest increase in five months. The core inflation rate, which excludes food, non-alcoholic beverages, fuel, and energy, inched up to a seven-month high of 3.2% in September 2025, from 3.1% in the prior month. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.2% in September, following a 0.1% decrease in the prior month.

9月份南非消费者价格指数（同比）低于预期（3.5%）：实际（3.4%）。9月份南非消费者价格指数（同比）低于预期（3.5%）：实际（3.4%）

South Africa Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (3.5%) in September: Actual (3.4%).South Africa Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (3.5%) in September: Actual (3.4%)