毛里求斯SEMDEX指数 (SEMDEX) 加自选

毛里求斯的贸易逆差从去年同月的164亿毛里求斯卢比扩大到2025年6月的191亿毛里求斯卢比，是今年迄今为止最大的逆差。出口同比暴跌10.4%，至93亿毛里求斯卢比，受原油（-45.5%）、制成品（-23.6%）和化学品及相关产品（-12.9%）大幅下降的拖累。尽管整体下降，但对美国的出口激增了40%，因为该国在对毛里求斯商品征收40%的互惠关税之前增加了出货量；美国占出口总额的13.1%。对大多数其他主要合作伙伴的出货量下降，包括马达加斯加（-28.9%）、英国（-23.4%）和法国（-14.2%）。与此同时，进口增长7.8%，达到284亿毛里求斯卢比，这得益于食品和活体动物（+34.2%）以及运输设备（+20.6%）的购买量增加。来自阿联酋的进口（+54.3%）增长最快，使该国的进口份额最大，为16.5%，而来自马达加斯加（+30.4%）和南非（+15.9%）的入境人数也有所增加。

Mauritius’s trade deficit widened to MUR 19.1 billion in June 2025 from MUR 16.4 billion in the same month last year, marking the largest deficit so far this year. Exports plunged 10.4% year-on-year to MUR 9.3 billion, dragged down by sharp declines in crude materials (-45.5%), manufactured goods (-23.6%), and chemicals and related products (-12.9%). Despite the overall drop, exports to the US surged 40% as the country ramped up shipments ahead of the 40% reciprocal tariff on Mauritian goods; the US accounted for 13.1% of total exports. Shipments to most other major partners fell, including Madagascar (-28.9%), the UK (-23.4%), and France (-14.2%). Meanwhile, imports rose 7.8% to MUR 28.4 billion, boosted by higher purchases of food and live animals (+34.2%) and transport equipment (+20.6%). Imports from the UAE (+54.3%) grew the most, giving the country the largest import share at 16.5%, while arrivals from Madagascar (+30.4%) and South Africa (+15.9%) also increased.

毛里求斯中央银行在2025年8月13日的例行会议上将其关键回购利率稳定在4.5%，使借贷成本处于2024年8月以来的最高水平。政策制定者指出，鉴于当前全球和国内经济的不确定性，保持现有的政策立场是明智的。虽然最近通货膨胀的上升似乎是暂时的，但关税驱动的全球通货膨胀的中期风险可能更持久。2025年7月，整体通胀率连续第四个月上升至3.1%，主要反映了预算措施的影响，其中包括对违规商品征收更高的税和对车辆征收额外的消费税。由于一次性影响预计会缓解，通货膨胀应保持在央行2-5%的中期目标范围内，预计2025年整体通货膨胀率为4.0%，比之前的3.5%预测上升0.5个百分点。 目前预计2025年国内GDP增长将稳定在3.0%左右，低于此前预测的3.0%-3.5%。

The Central Bank of Mauritius kept its key repo rate steady at 4.5% during its regular meeting on August 13th, 2025, leaving borrowing costs at their highest level since August 2024. Policymakers noted that, given the current global and domestic economic uncertainties, it was prudent to maintain the existing policy stance. While the recent rise in inflation appears temporary, medium-term risks from tariff-driven global inflation could be more persistent. Headline inflation rose for the fourth consecutive month to 3.1% in July 2025, largely reflecting the impact of budgetary measures, which include higher taxes on demerit goods and additional excise duties on vehicles. With one-off effects expected to ease, inflation should stay within the Bank’s 2–5% medium-term target, with headline inflation projected at 4.0% in 2025, up 0.5 percentage points from the prior 3.5% forecast. Domestic GDP growth for 2025 is now expected to settle near 3.0%, down from the earlier 3.0–3.5% forecast.

毛里求斯的年度通货膨胀率从一个月前的5.4%降至2025年7月的5.2%，结束了四个月的上升趋势。一些CPI项目的价格有所放缓，包括食品和非酒精饮料（6月份为4.5%对9.2%）；杂项商品和服务（2.7%对3.3%）；娱乐和文化（3%对3.3%）。另一方面，保险和金融服务的价格继续加速上涨（13.2%对10.2%）；餐馆和酒店（10.7%对9.8%）；酒精饮料和烟草（9.7%对9.4%）；健康（8.1%对5.5%）等。运输价格大幅反弹（3.6%对-0.9%）。按月计算，消费者价格在上个月上涨0.9%后持平。

Mauritius’s annual inflation cooled down to 5.2% in July 2025 from 5.4% a month earlier, ending a four-month upward trend. Prices moderated for some CPI items, including food & non-alcoholic beverages (4.5% vs 9.2% in June); miscellaneous goods & services (2.7% vs 3.3%); and recreation & culture (3% vs 3.3%). On the other hand, prices continued to accelerate for insurance & finance services (13.2% vs 10.2%); restaurants & hotels (10.7% vs 9.8%); alcoholic beverages & tobacco (9.7% vs 9.4%); health (8.1% vs 5.5%), among others. Transportation prices rebounded sharply (3.6% vs -0.9%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices were flat, after a 0.9% increase in the prior month.

2025年第一季度，毛里求斯的工业生产同比增长2.6%，为2023年第二季度以来的最高水平，比上一时期的1.5%增长有所加快，这得益于电力、天然气、蒸汽和空调供应（8.9%对2024年第四季度的1.6%）以及制造业（1.8%对1.4%）的产出加速增长。相反，采矿和采石业（2.2%对9%）以及供水、污水处理、废物管理和修复（0.1%对1.1%）的增长放缓。按季度计算，2025年第一季度工业生产下降了18.3%，与2024年第四季度14.0%的扩张相反。

Industrial production in Mauritius rose by 2.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, marking the highest since Q2 2023 and accelerating from a 1.5% growth in the previous period, driven by accelerated output growth in electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply (8.9% vs. 1.6% in Q4 2024) and manufacturing (1.8% vs. 1.4%). Conversely, growth slowed in mining and quarrying (2.2% vs. 9%) and water supply, sewerage, waste management, and remediation (0.1% vs. 1.1%). On a quarterly basis, industrial production decreased by 18.3% in Q1 2025, reversing from a 14.0% expansion in Q4 2024.