摩洛哥CFG25指数 (CasablancaCFG25) 加自选

2025年第二季度，摩洛哥经济显著增长5.5%，高于第一季度的4.8%和去年同期的2.4%。这是自2021年第四季度以来最强劲的经济表现，主要得益于非农业活动（+5.5%）。其中，第二产业增长7.4%，主要受电力、天然气、水、卫生和废物处理（8.9%）、制造业（6.9%）以及建筑和公共工程（6.7%）的推动。第三产业增长4.8%，其中酒店和餐馆（10.5%）、公共行政和社会保障（4.8%）以及贸易和汽车维修（4.4%）领涨。与此同时，农业部门增长了4.7%，而渔业活动收缩了7.7%。

Morocco’s economy grew by a notable 5.5% in Q2 2025, up from 4.8% in Q1 and 2.4% in the same period a year ago. This was the strongest economic performance since Q4 2021, mainly boosted by non-agricultural activities (+5.5%). Within this, the secondary sector grew 7.4%, driven by electricity, gas, water, sanitation, and waste treatment (8.9%), manufacturing (6.9%), and construction and public works (6.7%). The tertiary sector rose 4.8%, led by hotels and restaurants (10.5%), public administration and social security (4.8%), and trade and vehicle repair (4.4%). At the same time, the agricultural sector grew 4.7%, while fisheries activities contracted by 7.7%.

标准普尔全球评级于2025年9月26日将摩洛哥的主权信用评级从“BB+”上调至“BBB-”，前景稳定，理由是该国对疫情、贸易和供应链冲击的抵御能力。该机构指出，结构性改革和健全的宏观经济政策加强了公共财政，使经济多样化。此次升级恢复了摩洛哥在2021年新冠肺炎疫情期间失去的投资级评级，使其成为唯一拥有这一地位的非洲主权欧元债券发行人。根据该机构的数据，该国今年预计将增长约4.6%，通货膨胀率在2023年超过10%后降至1%以下。到2026年，预算赤字预计将缩小到GDP的3%，支持逐步减少债务，而到2025-28年，经常账户赤字预计将平均占GDP的2.1%。穆迪对摩洛哥的信用评级最后被定为Ba1，前景稳定。

S&P Global Ratings raised Morocco's sovereign credit rating to 'BBB-' from 'BB+' with a stable outlook on September 26, 2025, citing the country’s resilience to pandemic, trade, and supply-chain shocks. The agency noted that structural reforms and sound macroeconomic policies have strengthened public finances and diversified the economy. The upgrade restores Morocco’s investment-grade rating, lost in 2021 amid the Covid-19 pandemic, making it the only African sovereign Eurobond issuer with this status. According to the agency, the country is projected to grow about 4.6% this year, with inflation falling below 1% after exceeding 10% in 2023. The budget deficit is expected to narrow to 3% of GDP in 2026, supporting gradual debt reduction, while the current account deficit is projected to average 2.1% of GDP through 2025-28. Moody's credit rating for Morocco was last set at Ba1 with stable outlook.

在全球和国内持续存在不确定性的情况下，摩洛哥国家银行在2025年9月23日的例行会议上将基准利率维持在2.25%。政策制定者观察到，通货膨胀正在温和的水平上演变，预期仍然很好地锚定。今年的通货膨胀率仍预计为1%，与2024年和上次会议的预测保持不变，然后在2026年升至1.9%，略高于早些时候的1.8%。增长预测得以维持，预计经济将从2024年的3.8%加速到2025年的4.6%，然后在2026年略微放缓到4.4%。

The National Bank of Morocco maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.25% during its regular meeting on September 23rd, 2025, amid persistent global and domestic uncertainties. Policymakers observed that inflation is evolving at moderate levels and expectations remain well anchored. Inflation is still projected at 1% for this year, unchanged from both 2024 and the previous meeting’s forecast, before rising to 1.9% in 2026, up slightly from 1.8% earlier. Growth projections were maintained, with the economy expected to accelerate from 3.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025, before moderating slightly to 4.4% in 2026.

2025年8月，摩洛哥的年通货膨胀率从7月份的三个月高点0.5%降至0.3%。这标志着自2024年4月以来的最低水平，这是由于食品和非酒精饮料价格的温和上涨，与7月份的0.9%相比，仅上涨了0.2%，是2024年5月以来的最小涨幅，当时食品价格下跌了1.3%。几个类别的通货膨胀也有所缓解：家具（0.6%对0.8%）和餐馆和酒店（2.9%对3.4%）。酒精饮料和烟草（3.5%）、住房和公用事业（0.6%）、医疗保健（0.2%）和教育（2.3%）的通货膨胀率保持稳定。然而，服装和鞋类（0.9%对0.7%）以及杂项商品和服务（1.6%对1.5%）的通货膨胀加速。与此同时，运输价格下降速度较慢，与7月份的2.9%相比下降了2.4%。按月计算，8月份消费者价格指数上涨0.5%，从7月份0.1%的跌幅反弹，是七个月来最快的月度涨幅。

The annual inflation rate in Morocco slowed to 0.3% in August 2025, down from July’s three-month high of 0.5%. This marks the lowest rate since April 2024, driven by softer increases in food and non-alcoholic beverage prices, which rose by just 0.2%—the smallest uptick since May 2024, when food prices fell by 1.3%—compared to 0.9% in July. Inflation also eased in several categories: furnishings (0.6% vs 0.8%) and restaurants and hotels (2.9% vs 3.4%). Inflation remained steady in alcoholic beverages and tobacco (at 3.5%), housing and utilities (0.6%), healthcare (0.2%), and education (2.3%). However, inflation accelerated in clothing and footwear (0.9% vs 0.7%) and miscellaneous goods and services (1.6% vs 1.5%). Meanwhile, transport prices declined at a slower rate, falling 2.4% compared to 2.9% in July. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.5% in August, rebounding from a 0.1% decline in July and marking the fastest monthly increase in seven months.