埃及EGX30指数 (EgyptEGX30) 加自选

2025年5月，埃及的年度城市通货膨胀率从4月份的13.9%加速至16.8%，高于市场预测的14.9%，此前政府在4月份宣布燃料价格上涨近15%。这标志着通货膨胀率连续第三个月上升，是自1月份以来的最快速度，主要原因是食品价格大幅上涨，上涨了11.0%，是四个月来的最大涨幅，而4月份为6.0%。住房和公用事业（14.4%对13.9%）、交通（42.1%对37.4%）、餐馆和酒店（17.9%对16.9%）、服装（18.0%对17.4%）和酒精饮料和烟草（16.0%对15.9%）。娱乐和文化（17.1%对20.8%）、家具（13.8%对15.2%）、通信（12.2%对12.3%）以及杂项商品和服务（14.4%对14.5%）的价格有所放缓。5月份CPI环比上涨1.9%，为8个月来最大涨幅，4月份涨幅为1.3%，为4个月来最低。

The annual urban inflation rate in Egypt accelerated to 16.8% in May 2025, up from 13.9% in April and above market forecasts of 14.9%, following a nearly 15% increase in fuel prices announced by the government in April. This marked the third consecutive month of rising inflation and the fastest pace since January, driven largely by a sharp increase in food prices, which rose 11.0%, the most in four months, compared to 6.0% in April. Prices also rose at a faster pace for housing and utilities (14.4% vs 13.9%), transport (42.1% vs 37.4%), restaurants and hotels (17.9% vs 16.9%), clothing (18.0% vs 17.4%), and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (16.0% vs 15.9%). Prices moderated for recreation and culture (17.1% vs 20.8%), furnishings (13.8% vs 15.2%), communications (12.2% vs 12.3%), and miscellaneous goods and services (14.4% vs 14.5%). Monthly, the CPI rose by 1.9% in May, the largest increase in eight months, following a 1.3% gain in April, which was the lowest in four months.

标准普尔全球埃及采购经理人指数从4月份的48.5升至2025年5月的49.5，表明非石油私营部门状况的恶化有所缓和，是三个月来下降速度最慢的。产量和新订单的小幅下降支撑了这一增长，因为报告客户需求下降的公司越来越少。然而，采购活动以2024年10月以来的最快速度减少，由于企业没有更换离职员工，就业人数连续第四个月下降。成本压力加剧，由于供应商收费增加、汇率波动以及燃料和水泥等关键投入成本的增加，投入价格以今年最快的速度上涨。因此，销售价格两个月来首次攀升，达到七个月来的最高点。尽管存在这些挑战，但商业信心较4月份略有改善，尽管与历史常态相比仍然疲软。

The S&P Global Egypt PMI rose to 49.5 in May 2025 from 48.5 in April, indicating a softer deterioration in non-oil private sector conditions and marking the slowest pace of decline in three months. The uptick was supported by milder falls in both output and new orders, as fewer firms reported a drop in customer demand. However, purchasing activity was cut at the fastest rate since October 2024, and employment declined for a fourth straight month as businesses refrained from replacing departing staff. Cost pressures intensified, with input prices rising at the fastest pace this year due to higher charges from suppliers, exchange rate volatility, and increases in key input costs such as fuel and cement. As a result, selling prices climbed for the first time in two months, reaching a seven-month high. Despite these challenges, business confidence improved slightly from April, though it remained muted relative to historical norms.

埃及央行在2025年5月的会议上将其基准隔夜存款利率下调100个基点至25%，这是连续第二次降息，但不如市场预期的激进，市场预期的降息幅度从125个基点到300个基点不等。此次降息是五年来的首次，与央行支持增长的目标相一致，因为埃及仍然是世界上实际利率最高的经济体之一。尽管如此，在货币当局将英镑贬值40%后，对更激进的降息的警告旨在支持国内英镑。与此同时，隔夜拆借利率也下调了100个基点至25%。

The Central Bank of Egypt cut its benchmark overnight deposit rate by 100bps to 25% in its May 2025 meeting, a second consecutive rate cut, but less aggressive than market expectations that ranged from a 125bps rate cut to a 300bps rate cut. The rate cuts were the first in five years, aligning with the central bank's goal to support growth as Egypt remains as one of the economies with the highest real interest rates in the world. Still, the caution against more aggressive rate cuts aimed to support the domestic pound after the monetary authority devalued its currency by 40%. In the meantime, the overnight lending rate was also slashed by 100bps to 25%.

埃及的失业率从前三个月的6.4%降至2025年第一季度的6.3%。这标志着自1993年有记录以来的最低失业率。第一季度，该国男性失业率降至3.6%，低于上一季度的3.9%和去年同期的4.4%。女性失业率也从上一季度的16.6%和一年前的16.5%略微降至16.4%。与此同时，劳动力增长了1.0%，从上一季度的3312.4万人增长到3344.7万人。

Egypt’s unemployment rate fell to 6.3% in the first quarter of 2025 from 6.4% in the previous three-month period. This marks the lowest jobless rate since records began in 1993. The country’s male unemployment rate fell to 3.6% in Q1, down from 3.9% the previous quarter and 4.4% a year earlier. The unemployment rate for women also dipped slightly to 16.4%, from 16.6% last quarter and 16.5% a year ago. Meanwhile, the labor force grew by 1.0%, reaching 33.447 million from 33.124 million in the prior quarter.