埃及EGX30指数 (EgyptEGX30) 加自选

2025年7月，埃及央行将其关键隔夜存款利率保持在24%，突显出在贸易政策不确定性和地缘政治紧张局势加剧以及石油和农产品价格持续波动导致全球增长预测疲软的情况下，埃及央行持谨慎立场。在国内，CBE的第二季度预测显示经济将持续复苏，年GDP增长率接近4.8%，产出差距逐渐缩小。与此同时，第二季度的年度整体通胀率从第一季度的16.5%降至15.3%，6月份的核心通胀率降至11.4%；受食品价格下跌和非食品通胀稳定的推动，这两项指标的月度跌幅分别为0.1%和0.2%。在通胀预期改善和财政整顿持续进行的背景下，货币政策委员会认为，维持政策利率是保持通货紧缩轨迹的适当方式，并将在考虑进一步调整之前继续密切监测收到的数据。

The Central Bank of Egypt kept its key overnight deposit rate at 24% in July 2025, underscoring a cautious stance amid softer global growth forecasts—driven by trade policy uncertainty and renewed geopolitical tensions—and persistent volatility in oil and agricultural commodity prices. Domestically, the CBE’s Q2 nowcast points to a sustained recovery, with annual GDP growth near 4.8% and the output gap narrowing gradually. Meanwhile, annual headline inflation eased to 15.3% in Q2 from 16.5% in Q1, and core inflation moderated to 11.4% in June; both measures recorded modest monthly declines of 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively, driven by lower food prices and stable non-food inflation. Against this backdrop of improving inflation expectations and ongoing fiscal consolidation, the MPC judged that maintaining policy rates is appropriate to preserve the disinflation trajectory and will continue to monitor incoming data closely before considering further adjustments.

埃及的年度城市通货膨胀率从5月份的16.8%降至2025年6月的14.9%，低于预期的16.2%，打破了三个月的上升趋势。食品和饮料价格有所回落，但在埃及政府于4月将汽油、柴油和其他能源价格上调高达15%后，燃料成本仍大幅上涨。与此同时，埃及议会于6月底批准了对增值税法的一系列修改，这可能会导致香烟、酒精饮料和原油等商品的价格上涨。按月计算，6月份CPI小幅下降0.1%，这是自2024年5月以来的首次通缩读数，此前一个月上涨了1.9%。

The annual urban inflation rate in Egypt cooled down to 14.9% in June 2025 from 16.8% in May, coming in below the expected 16.2% and breaking a three-month uptrend. Food and beverage prices eased, but fuel costs remained sharply elevated after the Egyptian government raised petrol, diesel, and other energy prices by up to 15% in April. Meanwhile, Egypt’s parliament has approved a series of changes to the value-added tax (VAT) law in late June, which could lead to a rise in the prices of goods such as cigarettes, alcoholic beverages and crude oil. On a monthly basis, the CPI edged down by 0.1% in June, marking the first deflationary reading since May 2024, after a 1.9% increase in the previous month.

标准普尔全球埃及采购经理人指数从5月份的三个月高点49.5降至2025年6月的48.8，表明非石油私营部门的收缩幅度更大，尽管仍低于系列平均水平。最新数据也标志着连续第四个月下降，原因是新订单和产量下降更快。作为回应，企业连续第四个月减少采购活动，下降速度是近一年来最快的。6月份总库存停滞不前。就业人数连续第五个月下降，尽管裁员率很小，是当前序列中观察到的最疲软的。关于价格，投入成本通胀降至三个月低点，而产出成本通胀从5月份的七个月高点放缓。展望未来，商业信心降至历史最低水平，反映出对地缘政治风险的担忧导致对新订单的希望减弱。

The S&P Global Egypt PMI declined to 48.8 in June 2025 from May’s three-month high of 49.5, indicating a steeper contraction in the non-oil private sector, though it remained softer than the series average. The latest reading also marked the fourth straight month of decline due to faster falls in new orders and output. In response, firms reduced purchasing activity for the fourth consecutive month, with the pace of decline the fastest in nearly a year. Total inventories stalled in June. Employment fell for the fifth consecutive month, though the rate of job shedding was fractional and the softest observed in the current sequence. Regarding prices, input cost inflation eased to a three-month low, while output cost inflation slowed from May's seven-month high. Looking ahead, business sentiment weakened to the lowest on record, reflecting subdued hopes for new orders amid concerns over geopolitical risks.

初步估计显示，埃及2024/25财年第三季度经济增长4.77%，是三年来增长最快的，去年同期增长2.2%。制造业是主要驱动力，在上一季度收缩3.9%后，以16.3%的增长率反弹。相反，石油和天然气开采进一步萎缩，萎缩了10.38%。此外，苏伊士运河的活动在前一年下降51.6%后下降了23.1%。

Egypt's economy expanded by 4.77% in the third quarter of its FY 2024/25, marking the fastest growth in three years, after a 2.2% rise in the same quarter a year ago, preliminary estimates showed. The manufacturing sector was a major driver, bouncing back with 16.3% growth after contracting 3.9% in the previous year’s quarter. Conversely, oil and natural gas extraction contracted further, shrinking by 10.38%. Additionally, activity in the Suez Canal fell by 23.1%, following a 51.6% drop the prior year.