埃及EGX30指数 (EgyptEGX30) 加自选

2024年最后一个季度，埃及经济同比增长4.3%，这是自2022年第三季度以来最快的增长，比上一季度的3.5%有所加速。这一增长是由旅游业（+18%）和贸易相关运输等关键行业的强劲表现推动的。非石油制造业增长17.7%，得益于原材料清关速度加快和外汇短缺缓解。

Egypt's economy advanced by 4.3% year-on-year in the last quarter of 2024, marking its fastest expansion since Q3 2022 and accelerating from a 3.5% increase in the previous quarter. The growth was driven by strong performances in key sectors, including tourism (+18%) and trade-related transport. Non-oil manufacturing grew by 17.7%, helped by faster customs clearance for raw materials and an easing foreign-currency shortage.

国际货币基金组织（IMF）周二批准向埃及支付12亿美元，此前对其经济改革计划进行了第四次审查，这是80亿美元救助计划的一部分。此外，开罗在韧性和可持续性基金（RSF）下获得了13亿美元。该国一直在与飙升的通货膨胀、不断上涨的燃料和运输成本以及疲软的货币作斗争。埃及去年春天达成协议，将其国际货币基金组织的救助增加一倍以上，价格上涨被视为满足该基金进一步支持的条件所必需的。

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday approved a $1.2 billion disbursement to Egypt following the fourth review of its economic reform program, part of an $8 billion bailout. Additionally, Cairo secured $1.3 billion under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The country has been struggling with soaring inflation, rising fuel and transport costs, and a weakening currency. Egypt reached an agreement last spring to more than double its IMF bailout, with price hikes seen as necessary to meet the fund’s conditions for further support.

2025年2月，埃及的年度城市通胀率连续第四个月降至12.8%，低于上个月的24%，为2022年3月以来的最低水平，低于14.5%的市场预期，所有组件的价格都在下降。食品和非酒精饮料价格涨幅为2021年5月以来最低（3.7%对20.8%）。此外，住房和公用事业（12.9%对14.2%）、交通（34.3%对35.9%）、家具、家用设备和日常维护（16.6%对21.6%）、通信（12.5%对13.0%）、娱乐和文化（22.0%对46.2%）、餐馆和酒店（17.6%对31.6%）、杂项商品和服务（15.5%对19.8%）、酒精饮料和烟草（25.4%对28.5%）、服装和鞋类（22.7%对26.1%）、健康（28.3%对43.1%）和教育（11.2%对18.4%）的价格有所缓和。2025年2月，CPI环比上涨1.4%，略低于1月1.5%的涨幅，这是四个月来的最高水平。

The annual urban inflation rate in Egypt eased for the fourth consecutive month to 12.8% in February 2025, down from 24% in the previous month, marking the lowest reading since March 2022 and falling below market expectations of 14.5%, with prices decreasing for all components. Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose the least since May 2021 (3.7% vs 20.8%). Additionally, prices moderated for housing and utilities (12.9% vs 14.2%), transport (34.3% vs 35.9%), furnishings, household equipment, and routine maintenance (16.6% vs 21.6%), communications (12.5% vs 13.0%), recreation and culture (22.0% vs 46.2%), restaurants and hotels (17.6% vs 31.6%), miscellaneous goods and services (15.5% vs 19.8%), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (25.4% vs 28.5%), clothing and footwear (22.7% vs 26.1%), health (28.3% vs 43.1%), and education (11.2% vs 18.4%). Monthly, CPI increased by 1.4% in February 2025, easing slightly from a 1.5% rise in January, which was the highest level in four months.

标准普尔全球埃及采购经理人指数从1月份的50个月高点50.7降至2025年2月的50.1，连续第二个月保持在50以上。这标志着四年多来首次连续扩张，标志着埃及非石油私营部门的持续复苏。更强劲的市场条件和不断增长的客户需求推动了增长，但由于制造订单下降，增长速度放缓。与此同时，由于企业在不断改善的市场中寻求投入，采购活动急剧上升至三年半以来的最高点。尽管有所增长，但就业人数在四个月内第三次下降，而产出保持稳定，积压和库存变化不大。在价格方面，与2024年相比，投入成本通胀保持温和，而较低的员工成本和逐步的产出价格上涨使通胀低于长期平均水平。展望未来，由于企业对经济和地缘政治风险保持谨慎，商业信心降至2024年11月以来的最低水平。

The S&P Global Egypt PMI fell to 50.1 in February 2025 from a fifty-month high of 50.7 in January, remaining above the 50 threshold for the second straight month. This marked the first back-to-back expansion in over four years, signaling continued recovery in Egypt’s non-oil private sector. Stronger market conditions and rising client demand drove growth, but the pace slowed due to a drop in manufacturing orders. Meanwhile, purchasing activity rose sharply to a three-and-a-half-year high, as businesses sought inputs in an improving market. Despite gains, employment fell for the third time in four months, while output remained stable with little change in backlogs and inventories. On prices, input cost inflation stayed muted compared to 2024, while lower staff costs and gradual output price increases kept inflation below its long-term average. Looking ahead, business confidence dropped to its lowest since November 2024, as firms remained cautious about economic and geopolitical risks.