埃及EGX30指数 (EgyptEGX30) 加自选

2025年8月，埃及的年度城市通货膨胀率连续第三个月放缓至12.0%，低于7月的13.9%，此前由于燃料价格上涨和低于12.7%的市场预测，5月达到了四个月来的最高点。这标志着自2022年3月以来的最低通胀率，主要是由于食品通胀急剧放缓，降至2021年5月以来的最低点（2.1%对7月的3.4%）。多个类别的价格涨幅也有所放缓，包括运输（26.8%对7月份的41.5%）、餐馆和酒店（13.8%对15.2%）、服装（14.8%对14.9%）以及杂项商品和服务（12.0%对13.6%）。与此同时，住房（16.2%对15.9%）和家具（13.4%对12.9%）的价格加速上涨。通信通胀保持稳定（12.1%）。按月计算，8月份消费者价格指数（CPI）上涨0.4%，从7月份的0.5%的跌幅反弹，标志着三个月来的首次月度上涨。

The annual urban inflation rate in Egypt slowed for the third consecutive month to 12.0% in August 2025, down from 13.9% in July, after reaching a four-month high in May due to rising fuel prices and below market forecasts of 12.7%. This marked the lowest inflation rate since March 2022, mainly driven by a sharp slowdown in food inflation, which fell to its lowest level since May 2021 (2.1% vs 3.4% in July). Price increases also moderated across several categories, including transport (26.8% vs 41.5% in July), restaurants and hotels (13.8% vs 15.2%), clothing (14.8% vs 14.9%), and miscellaneous goods and services (12.0% vs 13.6%). Meanwhile, prices accelerated for housing (16.2% vs 15.9%) and furnishings (13.4% vs 12.9%). Inflation remained steady for communications (at 12.1%). On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in August, rebounding from a 0.5% decline in July, and marking the first monthly increase in three months.

标准普尔全球埃及采购经理人指数从7月份的49.5降至2025年8月的49.2，表明非石油私营部门活动进一步收缩，标志着第六个月的下降。经济衰退是由产出和新订单的更快下降推动的，因为疲软的经济状况和持续的通货膨胀继续对需求造成压力。随着销售疲软，企业削减了采购并减少了库存，尽管供应商压力的缓解导致自3月以来首次缩短了交货时间。与此同时，在7月份的反弹基础上，公司连续第二个月增加了人员编制，因为他们希望处理未完成的工作量。成本压力也有所缓解，投入价格通胀放缓至五个月低点，为四年多来的最低水平。然而，企业试图通过以5月以来最快的速度提高产出费用来保护利润率。展望未来，乐观情绪仍然脆弱，信心与7月基本持平，仍接近历史低点。

The S&P Global Egypt PMI slipped to 49.2 in August 2025 from 49.5 in July, signaling a deeper contraction in non-oil private sector activity and marking the sixth month of decline. The downturn was driven by quicker falls in output and new orders, as weak economic conditions and persistent inflation continued to weigh on demand. With sales softening, firms cut back on purchasing and reduced inventories, though this easing of pressure on suppliers led to shorter delivery times for the first time since March. At the same time, companies raised staffing for a second month, building on July’s rebound, as they looked to handle outstanding workloads. Cost pressures also eased, with input price inflation slowing to a five-month low, the weakest seen in more than four years. However, businesses sought to protect margins by lifting output charges at the fastest rate since May. Looking ahead, optimism remained fragile, with confidence broadly unchanged from July and still near record lows.

据路透社报道，财政部长艾哈迈德·库楚克周六表示，在与国际货币基金组织融资挂钩的改革和制造业活动增加的推动下，埃及2024-25财年的实际国内生产总值增长了4.5%，高于前一年的2.4%。最新数据快于预算中预计的4.2%。在过去的一年里，政府根据与国际货币基金组织的80亿美元计划加快了经济改革，并从阿拉伯联合酋长国主权财富基金获得了240亿美元的投资，其中包括地中海沿岸的一项重大土地交易。该国受到2024年3月货币贬值、高通胀和加沙战争影响的压力。通货膨胀率在2023年9月达到创纪录的38%，已经开始缓解，但仍然很高。2025年7月，城市消费者价格通胀率从6月的14.9%降至13.9%。

Egypt's real GDP expanded by 4.5% in the fiscal year 2024–25, up from 2.4% in the previous year, boosted by reforms tied to IMF financing and increased manufacturing activity, Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk said on Saturday, as Reuters reported. The latest figure is faster than the 4.2% projected in the budget. Over the past year, the government accelerated economic reforms under an $8 billion program with the International Monetary Fund and secured $24 billion in investment from the United Arab Emirates’ sovereign wealth fund, including a major land deal on the Mediterranean coast. The country has come under pressure from a currency devaluation in March 2024, high inflation, and the impact of the war in Gaza. Inflation, which peaked at a record 38% in September 2023, has begun to ease but remains high. Urban consumer price inflation fell to 13.9% in July 2025 from 14.9% in June.

埃及央行在2025年8月的会议上将隔夜存款利率下调200个基点至22%，这是今年第三次下调，与市场预期一致。央行指出，与疫情开始以来波动较大的时期相比，最近的数据显示通货膨胀有所降温，埃及镑也趋于稳定，这使得政策得以放松，以与政府的扩张性经济政策保持一致。最新数据显示，7月份通货膨胀率降至13.9%，远低于2023年9月38%的近期峰值。

The Central Bank of Egypt cut its overnight deposit rate by 200 basis points to 22% on their August 2025 meeting, the third reduction of the year, and aligned with market expectations. The central bank noted that inflation cooled in recent data and the Egyptian pound steadied in comparison to more volatile periods since the start of the pandemic, allowing policy to be loosened to align with the government's expansionary economic policy. The latest data showed that inflation slowed to 13.9% in July, well below the recent peak of 38% in September of 2023.