埃及EGX30指数 (EgyptEGX30) 加自选

埃及央行在2025年4月的会议上将基准利率下调225个基点至25.50%，结束了埃及货币体系连续11个月创纪录的高借贷成本。此举与锚定通胀预期的努力相一致，因为2025年3月年度整体通胀率降至13.6%，而核心通胀率降至9.4%。食品通胀率大幅降至6.6%，非食品通胀率降至18.9%。尽管有这些改善，通货膨胀率仍远高于银行7%的目标利率（±2个百分点）。财政整顿措施、持续的贸易不确定性和地缘政治紧张局势加剧的上行风险继续对通胀前景构成压力。货币政策委员会将在2026年第四季度将通胀率引导至7%±2个百分点的目标。

The Central Bank of Egypt cut its benchmark interest rate by 225 basis points to 25.50% during its April 2025 meeting, ending 11 consecutive months of record-high borrowing costs in the Egyptian monetary system. The move aligns with efforts to anchor inflation expectations, as annual headline inflation decelerated to 13.6% in March 2025, while core inflation fell to 9.4%. Food inflation eased sharply to 6.6%, and non-food inflation slowed to 18.9%. Despite these improvements, inflation remains well above the bank’s target rate of 7% (±2 percentage points). Upside risks from fiscal consolidation measures, ongoing trade uncertainties, and heightened geopolitical tensions continue to exert pressure on the inflation outlook. The MPC will steer inflation towards its 7% ± 2 p.p. target by the fourth quarter of 2026.

标准普尔全球埃及采购经理人指数从2月份的50.1降至2025年3月的49.2，表明经营状况略有恶化，标志着今年的首次收缩。销售量三个月来首次下降，国内和国际需求均疲软。与此同时，由于订单减少，公司削减了采购和员工，商业活动放缓。尽管经济低迷，建筑业仍然是一个亮点，产出和新工作强劲增长，与制造业和零售业疲软形成鲜明对比。在定价方面，在埃及镑企稳和连续第二个月员工成本下降的支持下，投入价格通胀降至近五年来的最低水平。因此，销售价格仅略有上涨，保持了四年来最低的平均价格涨幅。展望未来，商业信心降至该系列历史最低水平之一，反映出对经济不确定性和需求压力的担忧。

The S&P Global Egypt PMI fell to 49.2 in March 2025 from 50.1 in February, signaling a mild deterioration in operating conditions and marking the first contraction of the year. Sales volumes declined for the first time in three months, with both domestic and international demand weakening. Meanwhile, business activity slowed as firms cut purchases and staff amid weaker orders. Despite this downturn, construction remained a bright spot, showing robust growth in output and new work, contrasting with subdued manufacturing and retail. On the pricing front, input price inflation eased to its slowest pace in nearly five years, supported by a stabilizing Egyptian pound and lower staff costs for the second consecutive month. As a result, selling prices increased only slightly, maintaining the lowest average price hikes in four years. Looking ahead, business confidence dropped to one of the lowest levels in the series’ history, reflecting concerns over economic uncertainty and demand pressures.

2024年最后一个季度，埃及经济同比增长4.3%，这是自2022年第三季度以来最快的增长，比上一季度的3.5%有所加速。这一增长是由旅游业（+18%）和贸易相关运输等关键行业的强劲表现推动的。非石油制造业增长17.7%，得益于原材料清关速度加快和外汇短缺缓解。

Egypt's economy advanced by 4.3% year-on-year in the last quarter of 2024, marking its fastest expansion since Q3 2022 and accelerating from a 3.5% increase in the previous quarter. The growth was driven by strong performances in key sectors, including tourism (+18%) and trade-related transport. Non-oil manufacturing grew by 17.7%, helped by faster customs clearance for raw materials and an easing foreign-currency shortage.

国际货币基金组织（IMF）周二批准向埃及支付12亿美元，此前对其经济改革计划进行了第四次审查，这是80亿美元救助计划的一部分。此外，开罗在韧性和可持续性基金（RSF）下获得了13亿美元。该国一直在与飙升的通货膨胀、不断上涨的燃料和运输成本以及疲软的货币作斗争。埃及去年春天达成协议，将其国际货币基金组织的救助增加一倍以上，价格上涨被视为满足该基金进一步支持的条件所必需的。

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday approved a $1.2 billion disbursement to Egypt following the fourth review of its economic reform program, part of an $8 billion bailout. Additionally, Cairo secured $1.3 billion under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The country has been struggling with soaring inflation, rising fuel and transport costs, and a weakening currency. Egypt reached an agreement last spring to more than double its IMF bailout, with price hikes seen as necessary to meet the fund’s conditions for further support.