埃及EGX30指数 (EgyptEGX30) 加自选

2025年4月，埃及的年度城市通货膨胀率从3月份的13.6%加速至13.9%，与预期相符。这标志着通货膨胀率连续第二个月上升，也是自1月以来的最快速度，原因是住房和公用事业价格上涨更快（3月份为13.9%对13.0%），交通（37.4%对33.9%），娱乐和文化（20.8%对19.7%），餐馆和酒店（16.9%对15.0%）。与此同时，食品和非酒精饮料（6.0%对6.6%）、服装和鞋类（17.4%对23.0%）、家具、家用设备、日常维护（15.2%对15.6%）、通信（12.3%对12.4%）、杂项商品和服务（14.5%对15.0%）以及酒精饮料和烟草（15.9%对25.0%）的价格有所缓和。按月度计算，2025年4月CPI上涨1.3%，为四个月来最小涨幅，较三月份1.6%的涨幅有所缓和，三月份为六个月来最高涨幅。

The annual urban inflation rate in Egypt accelerated to 13.9% in April 2025, up from 13.6% in March, aligning with expectations. This marked the second consecutive month of rising inflation and the fastest pace since January, due to faster rises in prices of housing and utilities (13.9% vs 13.0% in March), transport (37.4% vs 33.9%), recreation and culture (20.8% vs 19.7%), and restaurants and hotels (16.9% vs 15.0%). Meanwhile, prices moderated for food and non-alcoholid beverages (6.0% vs 6.6%), clothing and footwear (17.4% vs 23.0%), furnishings, household equipment, routine maintenance (15.2% vs 15.6%), communications (12.3% vs 12.4%), miscellaneous goods and services (14.5% vs 15.0%), and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (15.9% vs 25.0%). On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 1.3% in April 2025, the smallest increase in four months, easing from a 1.6% gain in March, which was the highest in six months.

标准普尔全球埃及采购经理人指数从3月份的49.2降至2025年4月的48.5，标志着非石油私营部门四个月来最严重的恶化。在国内和国际需求疲软的情况下，产量和新订单的加速下降是导致经济衰退的原因。这导致企业连续第三个月削减采购和就业，理由是工作量减少和控制成本的努力。在价格方面，尽管投入成本大幅上升——主要是由于燃料价格上涨了15%——但销售价格稳定下来，结束了持续56个月的通货膨胀。与此同时，库存水平上升，积压减少，而供应商的交货时间三个月来首次保持不变。此外，企业指出，货币波动和高借贷成本增加了压力。展望未来，商业信心回升至三个月高点，但仍低于历史平均水平，因为企业希望市场状况复苏，缓解经济不确定性。

The S&P Global Egypt PMI fell to 48.5 in April 2025 from 49.2 in March, marking the sharpest deterioration in the non-oil private sector in four months. The downturn was driven by accelerating declines in both output and new orders, amid weakening domestic and international demand. This led to businesses to cut back on purchases and employment for a third straight month, citing reduced workloads and efforts to curb costs. On prices, despite a sharp rise in input costs—mainly due to a 15% jump in fuel prices—selling prices stabilized, ending a 56-month stretch of inflation. Meanwhile, inventory levels rose and backlogs declined, while suppliers’ delivery times were unchanged for the first time in three months. Also, firms noted currency volatility and high borrowing costs as added pressures. Looking ahead, business confidence picked up to a three-month high but remained subdued against historical averages, as firms hoped for recovery in market conditions and easing economic uncertainty.

EGX 30指数上涨至32208.00点的13个月高点。在过去的4周里，埃及交易所指数上涨了1%，在过去的12个月里，它上涨了30.95%。

EGX 30 increased to a 13-month high of 32208.00 Index Points. Over the past 4 weeks, Egyptian Exchange Index gained 1%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 30.95%.

埃及央行在2025年4月的会议上将基准利率下调225个基点至25.50%，结束了埃及货币体系连续11个月创纪录的高借贷成本。此举与锚定通胀预期的努力相一致，因为2025年3月年度整体通胀率降至13.6%，而核心通胀率降至9.4%。食品通胀率大幅降至6.6%，非食品通胀率降至18.9%。尽管有这些改善，通货膨胀率仍远高于银行7%的目标利率（±2个百分点）。财政整顿措施、持续的贸易不确定性和地缘政治紧张局势加剧的上行风险继续对通胀前景构成压力。货币政策委员会将在2026年第四季度将通胀率引导至7%±2个百分点的目标。

The Central Bank of Egypt cut its benchmark interest rate by 225 basis points to 25.50% during its April 2025 meeting, ending 11 consecutive months of record-high borrowing costs in the Egyptian monetary system. The move aligns with efforts to anchor inflation expectations, as annual headline inflation decelerated to 13.6% in March 2025, while core inflation fell to 9.4%. Food inflation eased sharply to 6.6%, and non-food inflation slowed to 18.9%. Despite these improvements, inflation remains well above the bank’s target rate of 7% (±2 percentage points). Upside risks from fiscal consolidation measures, ongoing trade uncertainties, and heightened geopolitical tensions continue to exert pressure on the inflation outlook. The MPC will steer inflation towards its 7% ± 2 p.p. target by the fourth quarter of 2026.