由于日本央行加息的可能性增加，澳元/日元跌至90.50以下。澳元/日元连续第二个交易日下跌，在周一的欧洲交易时间徘徊在90.40左右。日元（JPY）继续走强，这得益于对日本央行（BoJ）将继续加息的预期上升。

AUD/JPY falls below 90.50 due to rising odds of BoJ rate hikes.The AUD/JPY pair extends its decline for a second straight session, hovering around 90.40 during Monday's European trading hours. The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to strengthen, supported by rising expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will persist with its interest rate hikes.

德国10年期国债收益率微升至2.5%，受对美联储独立性日益担忧的避险需求支撑。此举是在国家经济委员会主任哈塞特和特朗普总统暗示可能罢免美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔之后做出的。这些言论引发了人们对美国货币政策日益受到政治干预的担忧，这可能会损害美联储的信誉。与此同时，正如预期的那样，欧洲央行将存款利率下调25个基点至2.25%，为2023年初以来的最低水平。值得注意的是，央行在其政策声明中删除了“限制性”一词，并警告称，在贸易紧张局势加剧的情况下，经济前景已经恶化。市场目前预计，欧洲央行将在年底前再降息25个基点。

The yield on the German 10-year Bund edged up to 2.5%, supported by safe-haven demand amid growing concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence. The move came after comments from National Economic Council Director Hassett and President Trump hinted at the potential removal of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. These remarks have raised fears of increasing political interference in U.S. monetary policy, potentially undermining the Fed’s credibility. Meanwhile, the ECB cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, as expected — its lowest level since early 2023. Notably, the central bank dropped the word “restrictive” from its policy statement and warned that the economic outlook has deteriorated amid rising trade tensions. Markets are now pricing in three additional 25bps cuts from the ECB by year-end.

4月，瑞士法郎兑1美元升值至0.80，将本月的涨势扩大到十多年来的最强水平，因为美国经济政策的不确定性增加给美元带来了压力，并有利于法郎成为全球避险货币。最近一波流入瑞士市场的资金是在美国特朗普政府支持他们的威胁之后，即美联储主席鲍威尔可能会因不降息而被总统解雇，从而危及央行的独立性。这放大了法郎早些时候的反弹，此前特朗普激进的互惠关税计划促使投资者青睐真正的外国货币和黄金，而不是美元证券。法郎兑欧元走强引发了人们的猜测，即瑞士央行可能会干预货币市场或重新测试负利率。

The Swiss franc appreciated toward 0.80 per dollar in April, extending the month's rally to its strongest in over a decade, as increasing uncertainty in US economic policy pressured the greenback and favored the franc as the global safe-haven currency. The latest wave of inflows to Swiss markets was after the US Trump administration backed their threats that Fed Chair Powell might be dismissed by the President for not cutting interest rates, jeopardizing the central bank's independence. This magnified the franc's earlier rally after Trump's aggressive reciprocal tariff package drove investors to favor real foreign money and gold instead of dollar securities. The strengthening of the franc against the euro stoked speculation that the SNB may intervene in currency markets or retest negative interest rates.

欧元兑美元汇率上涨约1.5%，至1.15美元，为2021年11月以来的最高水平，这是由于对美联储独立性的担忧日益加剧，美元普遍疲软造成的。这一转变是在特朗普总统和美国国家经济委员会主任发表讲话后做出的，暗示特朗普仍在“研究”是否解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。4月份迄今为止，欧元兑美元汇率已攀升超过5%，因为投资者越来越质疑美元在全球金融体系中的主导地位，并转向共同货币作为替代品。额外的支持来自对国防开支增加的预期，特别是在德国。在政策方面，欧洲央行按预期将存款利率下调25个基点至2.25%，为2023年初以来的最低水平。央行还删除了将其政策立场称为“限制性”的措辞，同时警告称，由于贸易紧张局势升级，经济前景已经恶化。市场目前预计，到今年年底，将再有三次降息25个基点。

The euro rallied about 1.5% to $1.15, its strongest level since November 2021, fueled by broad dollar weakness amid growing concerns over the Fed’s independence. The shift followed remarks from President Trump and US National Economic Council Director, suggesting Trump is still “studying” whether to dismiss Fed Chair Powell. The euro has climbed over 5% against the dollar so far in April, as investors increasingly question the dollar’s dominance in the global financial system and turn to the common currency as an alternative. Additional support came from expectations of increased defense spending, particularly in Germany. On the policy front, the ECB cut its deposit rate by 25bps to 2.25% as anticipated, the lowest since early 2023. The central bank also removed language referring to its policy stance as “restrictive,” while warning that the economic outlook has worsened due to escalating trade tensions. Markets are now pricing in three more 25bps rate cuts by the end of the year.