新西兰50 (NZX50) 加自选

周五，新西兰元50指数上涨48点，涨幅0.4%，收于12853点，延续了第二个交易日的涨幅。此前，美国期货小幅上涨，周四华尔街标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数创下历史新高，原因是本周早些时候与日本达成协议后，人们对美国与欧盟和中国的潜在贸易协议持乐观态度。新西兰储备银行经济学家Paul Conway的言论为乐观基调增添了色彩，他表示，由于美国主导的关税可能会削弱新西兰经济并缓解成本压力，央行仍有降息的空间。生产者制造业、医疗保健和零售贸易股领涨。在单一股票中，Colonial Motor上涨2.7%，其次是Infratil有限公司（2.3%）、Summerset Group（1.6%）和Mercury NZ有限公司（1.4%）。尽管周五有所上涨，但该指数本周下跌0.2%，与前一时期的强势相比有所波动，因为下周美中贸易谈判以及7月份商业和消费者信心的关键本地数据越来越谨慎。

The NZX 50 rose 48 points or 0.4% to close at 12,853 on Friday, extending gains for the second session. The advance followed a modest rise in U.S. futures, after record highs on Wall Street’s S&P 500 and Nasdaq Thursday, due to optimism over potential U.S. trade deals with the EU and China, after a pact with Japan earlier this week. Adding to the bullish tone were comments from RBNZ economist Paul Conway, who said the central bank still sees room to cut interest rates, as U.S.-led tariffs could weaken New Zealand’s economy and ease cost pressures. Gains were led by producer manufacturing, healthcare, and retail trade stocks. Among single stocks, Colonial Motor jumped 2.7%, followed by Infratil Ltd. (2.3%), Summerset Group (1.6%), and Mercury NZ Ltd. (1.4%). Despite Friday’s gains, the index fell 0.2% for the week, swinging from strength in the prior period, amid growing caution ahead of next week’s U.S.-China trade talks and key local data on July business and consumer confidence.

周五，新西兰元微跌至0.602美元，但仍有望周内上涨，这得益于美国进一步贸易协议前景下风险情绪的改善。投资者现在正期待下周的另一轮美中贸易谈判，旨在延长8月12日的关税暂停最后期限。此前，美国和日本最近达成了一项协议，并可能与欧盟达成协议。在国内方面，市场预计新西兰储备银行在8月份的会议上将其3.25%的现金利率下调25个基点的可能性约为75%，尽管投资者怀疑这将接近宽松周期的结束。与此同时，新西兰储备银行首席经济学家Paul Conway周四表示，如果价格压力继续如预期般缓解，央行准备进一步降息，并警告称，美国的关税可能会对经济增长和通胀造成压力。本周迄今为止，新西兰元上涨了1%，结束了连续两周的下跌。

The New Zealand dollar edged down to $0.602 on Friday but remained poised for a weekly gain, underpinned by improved risk sentiment amid prospects of further US trade deals. Investors are now looking ahead to another round of US-China trade talks next week, aimed at extending the August 12 tariff pause deadline. This comes on the heels of a recent agreement between the US and Japan, as well as a potential deal with the EU. On the domestic front, markets are pricing in about a 75% chance that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut its 3.25% cash rate by 25bps at its August meeting, though investors suspect this will be close to the end of the easing cycle. Meanwhile, RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway on Thursday said that the central bank is prepared to cut rates further if price pressures continue to ease as anticipated, warning that US tariffs could weigh on economic growth and inflation. The kiwi was up 1% so far this week, snapping a two-week losing streak.

新西兰元50指数几乎持平，周五早盘交易中约为12806点，前一交易日略有上涨，因为交易员在与欧盟的潜在交易以及下周即将在斯德哥尔摩与中国进行的贸易谈判中继续关注美国关税的发展。投资者还期待美国就业数据为经济提供指导，以及美国和中国的制造业采购经理人指数发布。随着大公司公布季度盈利结果，交易员们也密切关注美国市场。 在国内，7月份的商业信心数据将于下周公布，此前6月份出现了四个月来的首次上升。金融和医疗保健板块的上涨抵消了科技和工业板块的下跌。Colonial Motors上涨1.9%，F&C Investment上涨0.4%，Freightways Group上涨0.5%，而Gentrack Group和奥克兰国际机场分别下跌1.9%和0.8%。本周，该指数在前一周上涨后，将下跌0.6%。

The NZX 50 was almost flat, trading around 12,806 in early deals on Friday, following slight gains in the previous session, as traders continued to monitor the development of US tariffs amid potential deals with the EU and upcoming trade negotiations with China in Stockholm next week. Investors also looked ahead to US jobs data for guidance on the economy, as well as manufacturing PMI releases from both the US and China. Traders also kept an eye on US markets as major companies announced their quarterly earnings results. Domestically, business confidence data for July is due next week, after rising for the first time in four months in June. Gains in financials and healthcare offset declines in tech and industrials. Colonial Motors rose 1.9%, F&C Investment gained 0.4%, and Freightways Group climbed 0.5%, while Gentrack Group and Auckland International Airport fell by 1.9% and 0.8%, respectively. For the week, the index is heading for a 0.6% decline after rising in the previous week.

新西兰基准标准普尔/NZX 50指数周四微涨0.1%，收于12805点，结束了为期两天的下跌，因为对美国与主要伙伴贸易谈判进展的乐观情绪提振了更广泛的市场情绪。据报道，欧盟和美国正在接近达成一项协议，对来自欧盟的大多数进口商品征收15%的关税，这与本周早些时候与日本达成的类似协议相呼应。这些事态发展重新燃起了进一步达成贸易协定的希望，并缓解了人们对美国关税更广泛影响的担忧。在国内，新西兰储备银行首席经济学家Paul Conway周四表示，如果价格压力继续如预期般缓解，央行准备进一步降息，并警告美国关税可能会抑制经济增长和通货膨胀。在企业方面，指数权重股Ebos Group（2.5%）和a2 Milk（1.4%）领涨。

New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index edged 0.1% higher to close at 12,805 on Thursday, ending a two-day decline, as optimism over progress in US trade negotiations with major partners lifted the broader market mood. The EU and the US are reportedly moving closer to an agreement that would set a 15% tariff on most imports from the bloc— mirroring a similar deal struck with Japan earlier this week. These developments have revived hopes for further trade accords and eased concerns over the broader impact of US tariffs. At home, RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway said on Thursday that the central bank is prepared to cut interest rates further if price pressures continue to ease as anticipated, warning that US tariffs are likely to damp economic growth and inflation. On the corporate front, index heavyweight Ebos Group (2.5%) and a2 Milk (1.4%) led the gains.