新西兰50 (NZX50) 加自选

新西兰股市周一早盘微涨13点，涨幅0.1%，至12866点，旨在延续连续第三个交易日的涨幅，其中耐用消费品、消费服务和工业服务领涨。特朗普总统宣布与欧盟达成贸易协议，将大多数进口商品的关税从拟议的30%降至15%后，美国期货价格飙升，提振了市场情绪。对美中贸易关系的乐观情绪也支持了风险偏好，此前《南华早报》报道称，双方可能会在本周第三轮谈判前将关税休战再延长三个月。然而，在美国主要科技公司盈利、美联储关键会议、特朗普8月1日的关税最后期限和美国通胀数据公布之前的谨慎态度限制了上行空间。在当地，投资者等待本周晚些时候公布的7月份商业和消费者信心数据。值得注意的上涨股包括斯科特科技（3.1%）、AFT制药（2.2%）、新西兰餐饮品牌（1.3%）和特纳汽车（1.0%）。

Shares in New Zealand edged up 13 points, or 0.1%, to 12,866 on Monday morning deals, aiming to extend gains for the third straight session, led by consumer durables, consumer services, and industrial services. Sentiment was buoyed by a jump in U.S. futures after President Trump announced a trade deal with the EU, lowering tariffs to 15% from a proposed 30% on most imports. Optimism over U.S.–China trade relations also supported risk appetite after the South China Morning Post reported that both sides are likely to extend their tariff truce by another three months ahead of a third round of talks this week. However, upside was capped by caution ahead of earnings from major U.S. tech firms, a key Fed meeting, Trump’s August 1 tariff deadline, and U.S. inflation data. Locally, investors awaited July business and consumer confidence data due later this week. Notable gainers included Scott Technology (3.1%), AFT Pharma (2.2%), Restaurant Brands NZ (1.3%), and Turners Automotive (1.0%).

周五，新西兰元50指数上涨48点，涨幅0.4%，收于12853点，延续了第二个交易日的涨幅。此前，美国期货小幅上涨，周四华尔街标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数创下历史新高，原因是本周早些时候与日本达成协议后，人们对美国与欧盟和中国的潜在贸易协议持乐观态度。新西兰储备银行经济学家Paul Conway的言论为乐观基调增添了色彩，他表示，由于美国主导的关税可能会削弱新西兰经济并缓解成本压力，央行仍有降息的空间。生产者制造业、医疗保健和零售贸易股领涨。在单一股票中，Colonial Motor上涨2.7%，其次是Infratil有限公司（2.3%）、Summerset Group（1.6%）和Mercury NZ有限公司（1.4%）。尽管周五有所上涨，但该指数本周下跌0.2%，与前一时期的强势相比有所波动，因为下周美中贸易谈判以及7月份商业和消费者信心的关键本地数据越来越谨慎。

The NZX 50 rose 48 points or 0.4% to close at 12,853 on Friday, extending gains for the second session. The advance followed a modest rise in U.S. futures, after record highs on Wall Street’s S&P 500 and Nasdaq Thursday, due to optimism over potential U.S. trade deals with the EU and China, after a pact with Japan earlier this week. Adding to the bullish tone were comments from RBNZ economist Paul Conway, who said the central bank still sees room to cut interest rates, as U.S.-led tariffs could weaken New Zealand’s economy and ease cost pressures. Gains were led by producer manufacturing, healthcare, and retail trade stocks. Among single stocks, Colonial Motor jumped 2.7%, followed by Infratil Ltd. (2.3%), Summerset Group (1.6%), and Mercury NZ Ltd. (1.4%). Despite Friday’s gains, the index fell 0.2% for the week, swinging from strength in the prior period, amid growing caution ahead of next week’s U.S.-China trade talks and key local data on July business and consumer confidence.

周五，新西兰元微跌至0.602美元，但仍有望周内上涨，这得益于美国进一步贸易协议前景下风险情绪的改善。投资者现在正期待下周的另一轮美中贸易谈判，旨在延长8月12日的关税暂停最后期限。此前，美国和日本最近达成了一项协议，并可能与欧盟达成协议。在国内方面，市场预计新西兰储备银行在8月份的会议上将其3.25%的现金利率下调25个基点的可能性约为75%，尽管投资者怀疑这将接近宽松周期的结束。与此同时，新西兰储备银行首席经济学家Paul Conway周四表示，如果价格压力继续如预期般缓解，央行准备进一步降息，并警告称，美国的关税可能会对经济增长和通胀造成压力。本周迄今为止，新西兰元上涨了1%，结束了连续两周的下跌。

The New Zealand dollar edged down to $0.602 on Friday but remained poised for a weekly gain, underpinned by improved risk sentiment amid prospects of further US trade deals. Investors are now looking ahead to another round of US-China trade talks next week, aimed at extending the August 12 tariff pause deadline. This comes on the heels of a recent agreement between the US and Japan, as well as a potential deal with the EU. On the domestic front, markets are pricing in about a 75% chance that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut its 3.25% cash rate by 25bps at its August meeting, though investors suspect this will be close to the end of the easing cycle. Meanwhile, RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway on Thursday said that the central bank is prepared to cut rates further if price pressures continue to ease as anticipated, warning that US tariffs could weigh on economic growth and inflation. The kiwi was up 1% so far this week, snapping a two-week losing streak.

新西兰元50指数几乎持平，周五早盘交易中约为12806点，前一交易日略有上涨，因为交易员在与欧盟的潜在交易以及下周即将在斯德哥尔摩与中国进行的贸易谈判中继续关注美国关税的发展。投资者还期待美国就业数据为经济提供指导，以及美国和中国的制造业采购经理人指数发布。随着大公司公布季度盈利结果，交易员们也密切关注美国市场。 在国内，7月份的商业信心数据将于下周公布，此前6月份出现了四个月来的首次上升。金融和医疗保健板块的上涨抵消了科技和工业板块的下跌。Colonial Motors上涨1.9%，F&C Investment上涨0.4%，Freightways Group上涨0.5%，而Gentrack Group和奥克兰国际机场分别下跌1.9%和0.8%。本周，该指数在前一周上涨后，将下跌0.6%。

The NZX 50 was almost flat, trading around 12,806 in early deals on Friday, following slight gains in the previous session, as traders continued to monitor the development of US tariffs amid potential deals with the EU and upcoming trade negotiations with China in Stockholm next week. Investors also looked ahead to US jobs data for guidance on the economy, as well as manufacturing PMI releases from both the US and China. Traders also kept an eye on US markets as major companies announced their quarterly earnings results. Domestically, business confidence data for July is due next week, after rising for the first time in four months in June. Gains in financials and healthcare offset declines in tech and industrials. Colonial Motors rose 1.9%, F&C Investment gained 0.4%, and Freightways Group climbed 0.5%, while Gentrack Group and Auckland International Airport fell by 1.9% and 0.8%, respectively. For the week, the index is heading for a 0.6% decline after rising in the previous week.