新西兰50 (NZX50) 加自选

周一，新西兰元跌至0.589美元左右，受美元走强的压力，收复了最近一个交易日的涨幅。美元飙升，因投资者对美中在90天暂停期间降低相互关税的协议表示欢迎，缓解了对两个超级大国之间破坏性贸易争端的担忧。进一步拖累新西兰元的是，来自中国的数据显示，消费者价格连续第三个月下降，生产者价格出现六个月来最大跌幅，突显出新西兰最大贸易伙伴的国内需求疲软。在国内，随着对储备银行进一步降息的预期增加，人民币仍面临压力。上周的数据显示，劳动力市场状况有所缓解，工资增长放缓，强化了央行本月降息25个基点的预期。市场还预计，到年底，利率将降至3%，2025年将再降息三次。

The New Zealand dollar fell to around $0.589 on Monday, giving back gains from the recent session, pressured by a stronger US dollar. The greenback surged as investors cheered a US-China agreement to reduce mutual tariffs during a 90-day pause, alleviating concerns of a disruptive trade dispute between the two superpowers. Weighing further on the kiwi, data from China revealed a third consecutive monthly decline in consumer prices and the steepest drop in producer prices in six months, highlighting weak domestic demand from New Zealand’s top trading partner. Domestically, the currency remained under pressure as expectations grew for further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank. Data from last week indicated easing labor market conditions and softer wage growth, reinforcing the central bank’s expectation of a 25bps rate cut this month. Markets also anticipate rates to fall to 3% by year-end, with three additional cuts priced in for 2025.

新西兰基准标准普尔/NZX 50指数周一上涨0.6%，至12677点，收于2月中旬以来的最高水平，因为美中贸易谈判后的乐观情绪提振了全球市场的情绪。投资者现在正在等待周末在日内瓦举行的讨论后的进一步更新，美国官员在会上引用了一项减少贸易逆差的协议，中国代表指出了新经济对话的关键共识和计划。然而，周六中国疲软的数据限制了涨幅，显示持续的通缩压力，这表明新西兰最大贸易伙伴的国内需求疲软。在整个交易所，医疗保健行业表现最佳，涨幅超过2%，其中萨默塞特集团上涨1.6%，莱曼医疗保健上涨1.7%，大洋洲医疗保健上涨3.1%。其他主要上涨股包括Contact Energy（+2.3%）、Mainfreight（+4.8%）和Manawa Energy（+2.9%）。

New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.6% to 12,677 on Monday, closing at its highest level since mid-February, as optimism following US-China trade talks lifted sentiment across global markets. Investors now await further updates after the weekend discussions in Geneva, where US officials cited a deal to reduce the trade deficit and Chinese representatives noted a key consensus and plans for a new economic dialogue. However, gains were capped by weak data from China on Saturday, which showed persistent deflationary pressures—signaling subdued domestic demand in New Zealand’s top trading partner. Across the bourse, the health sector was the top performer, climbing over 2%, with Summerset Group up 1.6%, Ryman Healthcare rising 1.7%, and Oceania Healthcare gaining 3.1%. Other key gainers included Contact Energy (+2.3%), Mainfreight (+4.8%), and Manawa Energy (+2.9%).

周一，新西兰元上涨至0.593美元左右，延续了前一交易日的涨幅，因为美国和中国周末的会谈提振了全球市场情绪。两国官员都暗示了积极的结果，北京宣布计划启动正式谈判，华盛顿注意到达成协议的进展。然而，涨幅受到周六中国数据的限制，该数据显示，消费者价格连续第三个月下跌，生产者价格出现六个月来最大跌幅，突显出新西兰最大贸易伙伴的国内需求疲软。在国内，由于预期储备银行将进一步降息，新西兰元仍面临压力。上周的数据显示，劳动力市场状况有所缓解，工资增长放缓，强化了央行本月降息25个基点的倾向。市场还预计，到年底，利率将降至3%，2025年将再降息三次。

The New Zealand dollar rose to around $0.593 on Monday, extending gains from the previous session, as weekend talks between the US and China lifted global market sentiment. Officials from both countries alluded to a positive outcome, with Beijing announcing plans to launch formal negotiations and Washington noting progress toward a deal. However, gains were limited by Saturday’s data from China, which showed consumer prices fell for the third consecutive month and producer prices saw their sharpest drop in six months—highlighting weak domestic demand in New Zealand’s top trading partner. Domestically, the kiwi remained under pressure from expectations of further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank. Data last week showed easing labor market conditions and softer wage growth, reinforcing the central bank’s bias for a 25bps cut this month. Markets also expect rates to fall to 3% by year-end, with three additional cuts priced in for 2025.

新西兰股市周一早盘上涨38点，涨幅0.3%，至12643点，连续第二个交易日上涨，达到2月21日以来的最高水平。新西兰元50指数追随美国股指期货的反弹，交易员们欢迎美国和中国在周末瑞士谈判后的贸易谈判取得实质性进展。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，细节将在周一上午的简报会上提供。然而，周六中国的数据限制了涨幅，因为新西兰最大贸易伙伴的消费者价格连续第三个月下跌，而生产者价格指数是六个月来跌幅最大的，突显出中国大陆的消费进一步疲软。能源、金融、通信服务和非必需消费品板块主要推动该指数上涨，Mainfreight（2.9%）和Ebos Group（1.5%）涨幅显著，而澳新银行集团、奥克兰国际机场和F&C投资信托公司各上涨1.0%。

Equities in New Zealand rose 38 points, or 0.3%, to 12,643 in morning trade on Monday, up for the second straight session and reaching the highest level since February 21. The NZX 50 tracked a rally in U.S. stock futures, as traders welcomed substantial progress in trade talks between the U.S. and China following negotiations over the weekend in Switzerland. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said details would be provided in a briefing Monday morning. However, Saturday's data in China capped the gains, as consumer prices in New Zealand's top trading partner fell for the third consecutive month, while producer prices dropped the most in six months, highlighting further weak consumption on the mainland. Energy, financials, communication services, and consumer discretionary sectors mainly drove the index, with notable gains from Mainfreight (2.9%) and Ebos Group (1.5%), while ANZ Group, Auckland International Airport, and F&C Investment Trust PLC each gained 1.0%.