新西兰50 (NZX50) 加自选

新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）的季度预期调查显示，企业经理预测2025年第四季度未来两年的通货膨胀率为2.28%，与前三个月持平。与此同时，一年期通胀预期从2.37%微升至2.39%，表明价格压力预计将在短期内得到控制。长期观点喜忧参半，五年期通胀预期从2.26%降至2.22%，而十年期预期从2.15%微升至2.18%。在货币政策方面，受访者现在预计官方现金利率（OCR）到2025年12月底将保持在2.25%，明显低于上一季度预测的3.02%，然后到2026年9月小幅上升至2.31%。这一调整是在新西兰储备银行最近决定于2025年10月8日将OCR下调50个基点至2.50%之后做出的。

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) quarterly survey of expectations showed that business managers forecast inflation at 2.28% for the next two years in Q4 2025, unchanged from the previous three-month period. Meanwhile, one-year inflation expectations edged up slightly to 2.39% from 2.37%, suggesting that price pressures are expected to stay contained in the near term. Longer-term views were mixed, with five-year-ahead inflation expectations easing to 2.22% from 2.26%, while ten-year expectations inched higher to 2.18% from 2.15%. In terms of monetary policy, respondents now expect the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to stand at 2.25% by the end of December 2025, notably lower than the 3.02% forecast in the previous quarter, before rising modestly to 2.31% by September 2026. The adjustment follows the RBNZ’s recent decision to cut the OCR by 50 basis points to 2.50% on 8 October 2025.