肯尼亚内罗毕20指数 (Nairobi20) 加自选

肯尼亚央行于2025年6月将基准利率下调25个基点至9.75%，这是连续第六次降息。货币政策委员会指出，5月份通货膨胀率从4月份的4.1%降至3.8%，低于5±2.5%的目标中点。该决定旨在支持贷款和经济活动，该行表示有进一步放松货币政策的空间。国内贷款利率一直在下降，私营部门信贷增长显示出温和的复苏。委员会还考虑了全球风险，包括美中贸易紧张局势、乌克兰和巴勒斯坦冲突、国内增长放缓以及主要经济体央行继续谨慎降息的事实

The Central Bank of Kenya lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 9.75% in June 2025, marking a sixth consecutive cut. The Monetary Policy Committee noted that inflation eased to 3.8% in May from 4.1% in April, staying below the 5±2.5% target midpoint. The decision aimed to support lending and economic activity, with the bank citing room for further monetary easing. Domestic lending rates have been falling, and private sector credit growth has shown modest recovery. The committee also considered global risks, including US-China trade tensions, conflicts in Ukraine and Palestine, slowing domestic growth, and the fact that major economies central banks have continued to cut rates cautiously

肯尼亚的年通货膨胀率从4月份的8个月高点4.1%降至2025年5月的3.8%。通货膨胀率仍在央行2.5%至7.5%的目标范围内。食品和非酒精饮料的价格增长放缓（4月份为6.3%对7.1%），而运输价格保持稳定（2.3%）。按月计算，5月份消费者价格指数上涨0.5%，而前一个月上涨0.3%。

Kenya's annual inflation eased to 3.8% in May 2025, from an eight-month high of 4.1% in April. The inflation remained well within the central bank's 2.5% to 7.5% target range. Price growth slowed for food and non-alcoholic beverages (6.3% vs 7.1% in April), while remained steady for transport (at 2.3%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.5% in May, following a 0.3% rise in the previous month.

世界银行将肯尼亚今年的国内生产总值增长预测下调了0.5个百分点，至4.5%，理由是债务和贷款利率居高不下，私营部门信贷下降。自去年以来，通货膨胀和外汇汇率保持稳定，使政策制定者能够开始放松货币政策；然而，实际贷款利率并没有效仿。这导致信贷增长放缓，影响了制造业、金融业和采矿业等行业。2024年12月，私人信贷仅增长1.4%，较去年同期的13.9%大幅下降。与此同时，肯尼亚的债务达到国内生产总值的65.6%，使该国处于困境的高风险类别。去年经济增长了4.7%，低于前一年的5.7%。世界银行预计，未来两年国内生产总值增长将恢复到5%左右。

The World Bank lowered Kenya's GDP growth forecast by half a percentage point to 4.5% for this year, citing high levels of debt and lending rates, along with a decline in private sector credit. Inflation and foreign exchange rates have remained stable since last year, allowing policymakers to begin easing monetary policy; however, real lending rates have not followed suit. This has led to a slowdown in credit growth, impacting sectors such as manufacturing, finance, and mining. Private credit grew by only 1.4% in December 2024, down sharply from 13.9% a year earlier. Meanwhile, Kenya’s debt reached 65.6% of GDP, placing the country in the high-risk of distress category. The economy expanded by 4.7% last year, down from 5.7% the previous year. The World Bank expects GDP growth to recover to around 5% over the next two years.

2024年第四季度，肯尼亚经济同比增长5.1%，为一年来最快增速，此前一季度增长率上调至4.2%。占国内生产总值五分之一以上的农业增长了4.3%，略高于此前的4%。住宿和餐饮服务（+10.9%）、公共行政（+9.2%）、批发和零售贸易（+6.4%）、运输和仓储（+5.6%）、信息和通信（+5.6%）以及金融和保险（+6%）的涨幅值得注意。经季节性调整的季度数据显示，第四季度国内生产总值增长1.8%，为八个季度以来的最高水平，此前一季度上调了1.2%。2024年的GDP增长率为4.7%，为2020年以来的最低水平，低于2023年修订后的5.7%，原因是政治动荡和洪水对基础设施和农业的破坏。

Kenya’s economy expanded by 5.1% year-on-year in Q4 2024, the fastest pace in a year, following an upwardly revised 4.2% growth in the previous quarter. Agriculture, which accounts for over one-fifth of GDP, grew by 4.3%, slightly up from 4% previously. Noteworthy gains were seen in accommodation and food services (+10.9%), public administration (+9.2%), wholesale and retail trade (+6.4%), transportation and storage (+5.6%), information and communication (+5.6%), and finance and insurance (+6%).On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the GDP rose by 1.8% in Q4, the most in eight quarters, after an upwardly revised 1.2% increase in the prior quarter. The 2024 GDP growth came in at 4.7%, the slowest pace since 2020, down from a revised 5.7% in 2023, amid disruptions from political unrest and flood-related damage to both infrastructure and agriculture.