英镑/波兰兹罗提 (GBPPLN) 加自选

周五，富时100指数下跌0.4%，收于8851点，从周四的历史高点回落，中东紧张局势升级引发全球股市普遍抛售。然而，与欧洲同行的更大跌幅相比，英国基准指数的跌幅更为温和。以色列对伊朗发动了大规模袭击，标志着敌对行动的显著升级，加剧了人们对该地区更广泛冲突的担忧。国际航空集团（International Airlines Group）的股价跌幅最大，为4.5%。易捷航空（-3.5%）、葛兰素史克（-2.5%）和京东体育（-1.9%）也录得巨额亏损。相比之下，在安全风险加剧和能源价格上涨的情况下，石油、天然气和国防类股表现优异，即BAE Systems（3.3%）、BP（2%）、Fresnillo（1.7%）和壳牌（1%）。本周，富时100指数微涨0.1%。

The FTSE 100 fell 0.4% to close at 8,851 on Friday, pulling back from Thursday’s record high, as escalating tensions in the Middle East sparked a broad-based sell-off across global equity markets. However, the decline in the UK benchmark was more modest compared to heavier losses seen across its European peers. Israel launched widescale strikes against Iran, marking a significant escalation in hostilities that fueled fears of a broader conflict in the region. Shares of International Airlines Group were among the hardest hit, falling 4.5%. EasyJet (-3.5%), GSK (-2.5%) and JD Sports (-1.9%) also booked big losses. In contrast, oil, gas, and defense stocks outperformed amid heightened security risks and rising energy prices, namely BAE Systems (3.3%), BP (2%), Fresnillo (1.7%) and Shell (1%). On the week, the FTSE 100 edged up 0.1%.

英格兰银行预览——稳健前行。我们预计，英格兰银行将根据共识和市场定价，在6月19日星期四将银行利率保持在4.25%不变。我们预计投票结果将是7比2，多数人投票支持不变的决定，Dhingra和Taylor投票支持削减25个基点。

Bank of England Preview – Steady as She Goes.We expect the Bank of England to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.25% on Thursday 19 June in line with consensus and market pricing. We expect the vote split to be 7-2 with the majority voting for an unchanged decision and Dhingra and Taylor voting for a 25bp cut.

波兰在2025年4月的经常账户赤字为3.74亿欧元，而去年同期为9.22亿欧元。货物贸易平衡从7.5亿欧元的顺差恶化为9.4亿欧元的逆差。出口下降2.4%，至280亿欧元，而进口增长3.5%，至290亿欧元。出口下降反映了欧洲汽车行业的疲软和欧盟市场竞争的加剧，而进口的增加表明经济正在逐步复苏。与此同时，在出口增长5.1%和进口增长8.6%的推动下，服务贸易顺差几乎没有变化，为35亿欧元。主要收入赤字从32亿欧元缩小至29亿欧元，主要原因是外国投资者的证券投资回报率较低。二级收入账户盈余1.1亿欧元，而去年同期为1.74亿欧元。

Poland posted a current account deficit of EUR 374 million in April 2025, compared to a EUR 922 million surplus a year earlier. The goods trade balance deteriorated to a EUR 0.94 billion deficit from a surplus of EUR 0.75 billion. Exports declined 2.4% to EUR 28 billion, while imports rose 3.5% to EUR 29 billion. The export drop reflects weakness in the European automotive sector and increased competition in EU markets, while rising imports suggest a gradual economic recovery. Meanwhile, the services surplus was little changed at EUR 3.5 billion, driven by a 5.1% rise in exports and an 8.6% growth in imports. The primary income deficit narrowed to EUR 2.9 billion from EUR 3.2 billion, mainly due to lower portfolio investment returns for foreign investors. The secondary income account posted a EUR 0.011 billion surplus compared to a EUR 0.174 billion gap a year earlier.

波兰在2025年4月公布了9.41亿欧元的贸易逆差，与去年同期7.45亿欧元的顺差大幅逆转，标志着该国连续第12个月出现逆差。进口额增长3.5%，达到290.1亿欧元，反映了经济的逐步复苏和对消费品的强劲需求，特别是半耐用和非耐用产品以及农产品。相比之下，出口下降2.4%，至280.7亿欧元，受欧洲汽车行业状况恶化和欧盟市场竞争加剧的拖累。投资品、消费品和设备的国外销售额下降，严重影响了整体出口表现。

Poland posted a trade deficit of €941 million in April 2025, a sharp reversal from the €745 million surplus recorded in the same month last year, marking the country’s 12th consecutive monthly deficit. Imports rose by 3.5% to €29.01 billion, reflecting a gradual economic recovery and robust demand for consumer goods, particularly semi-durable and non-durable items, as well as agricultural products. In contrast, exports declined by 2.4% to €28.07 billion, weighed down by the deteriorating conditions in the European automotive sector and intensifying competition within EU markets. The drop in foreign sales of investment goods, consumer products, and equipment significantly impacted overall export performance.