英镑/波兰兹罗提 (GBPPLN) 加自选

英镑兑美元汇率突破1.336美元，为一周多来的最高水平，因投资者在英国关键经济数据和与欧盟的重大政治突破之前变得乐观。市场正密切关注周四公布的PMI数据，预计该数据将显示制造业收缩幅度较小，服务业下降幅度较小。预计4月份通货膨胀率将升至3.3%，为14个月来的最高水平，而核心CPI可能达到3.6%。尽管消费者信心脆弱，但零售额预计将增长0.4%，继续保持四个月的连续增长。英国和欧盟进一步支持英镑，达成了一项具有里程碑意义的协议，以重置脱欧后的关系。该协议包括到2038年在能源、国防和互惠捕鱼权方面的合作。与此同时，穆迪以对债务上升的担忧为由，意外下调了美国政府的信用评级，导致美元走弱。

The British pound strengthened past $1.336, its highest level in over a week, as investors turned optimistic ahead of key UK economic data and a major political breakthrough with the EU. Markets are closely watching Thursday’s flash PMI figures, which are expected to show a smaller contraction in manufacturing and a milder decline in services. April inflation is forecast to rise to 3.3%, the highest in 14 months, while core CPI may hit 3.6%. Retail sales are projected to increase by 0.4%, continuing a four-month streak of gains despite fragile consumer sentiment. Supporting the pound further, the UK and EU reached a landmark agreement to reset post-Brexit relations. The deal includes cooperation on energy, defense, and reciprocal fishing rights through 2038. Meanwhile, the US dollar weakened after Moody’s unexpectedly downgraded the US government's credit rating, citing concerns over rising debt.

英国10年期国债收益率升至4.69%，此前对美国财政稳定的担忧再次引发全球债券抛售。此举反映了美国国债收益率的上升，尤其是在穆迪以赤字增加和政治僵局为由下调美国政府信用评级之后。在国内，情绪也受到了英欧关系突破的影响。谈判代表最终敲定了一项协议，其中包括一项国防和安全协议，以及在乌克兰战争等重大地缘政治问题上的合作。该草案仍需正式批准。展望未来，市场正关注周四公布的PMI，预计制造业将出现温和下滑，服务业将出现较小收缩。此外，预计4月份的通货膨胀率将上升至3.3%，而核心CPI可能会达到3.6%。零售额预计增长0.4%，尽管消费者情绪低迷，但仍延续了积极的增长势头。

The UK 10-year gilt yield rose to 4.69%, following a global bond selloff triggered by renewed concerns over US fiscal stability. The move mirrored rising US Treasury yields, especially after Moody’s downgraded the US government’s credit rating, citing growing deficits and political gridlock. Domestically, sentiment was also influenced by a breakthrough in UK-EU relations. Negotiators finalized a deal that includes a defense and security pact and cooperation on major geopolitical issues, including the war in Ukraine. The draft still requires formal approval. Looking ahead, markets are eyeing Thursday’s flash PMIs, with expectations for a softer decline in manufacturing and a smaller contraction in services. Also, April’s inflation is forecast to rise to 3.3%, while core CPI may hit 3.6%. Retail sales are seen up 0.4%, extending a positive streak despite subdued consumer sentiment.

富时100指数周一下跌0.5%，在周涨幅1.5%后回落，投资者正在等待伦敦举行的英国-欧盟关键峰会的结果。英国首相基尔·斯塔默和欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩预计将公布一项新的国防和安全协议，以及关于减少贸易摩擦、促进青年流动和减少繁文缛节的协议。谈判代表达成了一项加强英欧关系的协议，包括在俄罗斯对乌克兰战争等全球挑战上的合作。穆迪下调美国政府的信用展望也抑制了市场情绪。在企业新闻方面，帝亚吉欧上涨2.6%，此前该公司报告第三季度有机销售额增长5.9%，好于预期，但全年指导方针保持不变。瑞安航空股价在盈利超过预期后上涨4%，但利润仍易受贸易紧张局势和宏观风险的影响。与此同时，英国电信即将达成协议，将其在TNT Sports的股份出售给华纳兄弟Discovery。

The FTSE 100 fell 0.5% on Monday, pulling back after a 1.5% weekly gain, as investors awaited the outcome of a key UK-EU summit in London. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are expected to unveil a new defense and security pact, along with agreements on reducing trade friction, boosting youth mobility, and cutting red tape. Negotiators reached a deal to enhance UK-EU ties, including cooperation on global challenges like Russia’s war in Ukraine. Market sentiment was also dampened by Moody’s downgrade of the US government’s credit outlook. In corporate news, Diageo rose 2.6% after reporting better-than-expected 5.9% organic sales growth in Q3, though it kept full-year guidance unchanged. Ryanair shares traded 4% higher after earnings beat, though profits remain vulnerable to trade tensions and macro risks. Meanwhile, BT nears a deal to sell its stake in TNT Sports to Warner Bros Discovery.

在伦敦，富时100指数下跌了44点。苏格兰抵押贷款（-1.95%）、京东体育时尚（-1.85%）和洲际酒店（-1.68%）领跌。抵消跌幅的是Fresnillo（4.10%）、Endeavor（1.73%）和帝亚吉欧（1.72%）。

In London, the FTSE 100 Index is losing 44 points. Losses were led by Scottish Mortgage (-1.95%), JD Sports Fashion (-1.85%) and Intercontinental Hotels (-1.68%). Offsetting the fall, top gainers were Fresnillo (4.10%), Endeavour (1.73%) and Diageo (1.72%).