澳元/波兰兹罗提 (AUDPLN) 加自选

中国和澳大利亚预计将双重降息。今天，欧盟委员会将发布其春季经济预测，可能会将欧元区的增长预期从11月的1.3%调整为与私人银行0.8%的普遍预期和欧洲央行3月0.9%的预测保持一致。人们还将关注德国财政方案的通胀影响，一些欧洲央行成员将其视为潜在的中期价格压力风险。

Dual Rate Cuts Expected in China and Australia.Today, the European Commission will release its spring economic forecast, likely revising euro area growth expectations from November's 1.3% y/y to align with private banks' consensus expectations of 0.8% y/y and the ECB's 0.9% y/y projection from March. Attention will also be on the German fiscal package's inflationary impact, viewed by some ECB members as a potential medium-term price pressure risk.

澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率升至4.56%左右，仍接近四个月高点，投资者正在等待澳大利亚储备银行的政策决定。尽管人们普遍预计央行将把基准利率下调25个基点，但投资者已将今年的总体降息预期从几周前的100多个基点下调至75个基点。这一转变是在上周强劲的劳动力市场数据之后发生的，这些数据增加了经济有弹性的迹象。此外，最近美中贸易冲突的缓和降低了央行采取更积极政策回应的可能性。澳大利亚储备银行行长米歇尔·布洛克（Michelle Bullock）也打算在即将举行的会议上为自己和董事会保留选择权，这表明政策制定者现阶段不会承诺进一步放松。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 4.56%, remaining near a four-month high as investors awaited the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy decision. While the central bank is widely expected to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25bps, investors have scaled back their expectations for total rate cuts this year to 75bps, down from over 100bps just weeks ago. This shift follows strong labor market data last week, which added to signs of a resilient economy. Additionally, the recent easing of the US-China trade conflict has lowered the likelihood of a more aggressive policy response from the central bank. RBA Governor Michelle Bullock also intends to keep options open for herself and the Board at upcoming meetings, signaling that policymakers are not committing to further easing at this stage.

周一，澳元上涨至0.642美元左右，因投资者等待澳大利亚储备银行的政策决定，减少了最近几个交易日的损失。人们普遍预计，澳大利亚储备银行将于周二将基准利率下调25个基点，从而恢复其宽松周期。然而，上周强于预期的劳动力市场数据降低了进一步降息的预期。最近美中贸易冲突的缓和也降低了央行采取更激进政策回应的可能性。因此，市场现在预计到年底将降息75个基点，低于几周前预测的100个基点。与此同时，4月份中国零售销售的放缓凸显了消费者需求的持续疲软，引发了人们对澳大利亚最大贸易伙伴的担忧，并预示着出口业绩的潜在风险。然而，工业产出强于预期和失业率下降在一定程度上缓解了这些担忧。

The Australian dollar rose to around $0.642 on Monday, paring losses from recent sessions as investors awaited the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy decision. The RBA is widely expected to resume its easing cycle by cutting the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Tuesday. However, stronger-than-expected labor market data last week has tempered expectations for further rate cuts. The recent easing of the US-China trade conflict has also reduced the likelihood of a more aggressive policy response from the central bank. As a result, markets now anticipate 75 basis points of cuts by year-end, down from 100 basis points projected just weeks ago. Meanwhile, April’s slowdown in Chinese retail sales highlights ongoing weakness in consumer demand, raising concerns for Australia’s largest trading partner and signaling potential risks to export performance. However, these worries were eased somewhat by stronger-than-expected industrial output and easing jobless rates.

周一早盘交易中，澳大利亚股市下跌0.3%，至8316点，停止了前八个交易日的涨幅，并从周五达到的近三个月来的最高水平回落。穆迪周五将美国信用评级下调至Aa1后，由于对政府财政赤字的担忧，标准普尔/澳交所200指数跟踪美国股指期货下跌。在今天晚些时候中国公布一系列数据之前，交易员们持谨慎态度，包括零售额和工业产出。上周早些时候公布的就业数据强于预期，市场预期澳大利亚储备银行将在周二的会议上降息25个基点，这限制了下跌。材料、非必需消费品、工业和金融类股主要拖累该指数，圣骑士能源（-8.0%）、新西兰水星（-4.1%）、Contact Energy（-2.5%）、Genesis Minerals（-2.3%）和WiseTech Global（-2.2%）的跌幅显著。

Shares in Australia fell 0.3% to 8,316 in early deals on Monday, halting gains from the previous eight sessions and retreating from their highest level in nearly three months, reached on Friday. The S&P/ASX 200 Index tracked a downbeat session in US stock futures amid concerns over the government fiscal deficit after Moody's lowered the US credit rating to Aa1 on Friday. Traders were cautious ahead of a slew of data from China to be released later today, including retail sales and industrial output. Capping the falls were market expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia would cut the interest rate by 25 bps at Tuesday's meeting, following stronger-than-expected jobs data released earlier last week. Materials, consumer discretionary, industrials, and financials mainly weighed on the index, with notable losses from Paladin Energy (-8.0%), Mercury NZ (-4.1%), Contact Energy (-2.5%), Genesis Minerals (-2.3%), and WiseTech Global (-2.2%).