每周经济与金融评论：拓宽增长动力——解读GDP并展望未来。我们对第四季度GDP的预测远低于普遍预期，今天上午的官方发布证实了我们的怀疑，即政府关门和不包括黄金的贸易平衡阻碍了这一时期更广泛的增长。GDP的年化增长率仅为1.4%，大约是普遍预期的2.8%增长率的一半。

Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Broadening Drivers of Growth – Unpacking GDP and Looking Ahead.We had maintained a well-below consensus forecast for fourth quarter GDP and the official release this morning confirmed our suspicions that a government shutdown and a gold-excluded trade balance held back broader growth during the period. The annualized rate of GDP came in at just 1.4%, roughly half the 2.8% growth rate expected by the consensus.