美元下跌，欧洲央行在石油冲击和通胀风险上升的情况下退出美联储。美元上周完全有理由反弹，但最终却成为主要货币中表现最差的。全球股市的大幅抛售、美国国债收益率的飙升和地缘政治风险的升级通常会引发对美元的强劲避险需求。

Dollar Slides as ECB Out-Hawks Fed Amid Oil Shock and Rising Inflation Risks.Dollar had every reason to rally last week, but instead ended as the worst performer among major currencies. Sharp selloff in global equities, surging Treasury yields, and escalating geopolitical risks would typically trigger strong safe-haven demand for the greenback.

卢比跌至93.73的新低。印度卢比经历了自2022年底以来的最大单日跌幅，跌至93.73的历史低点。在西亚冲突升级的推动下，油价飙升，再加上海外投资者外流，给货币带来了巨大压力。

Rupee on shaky ground, touches fresh low of 93.73.The Indian rupee experienced its sharpest single-day fall since late 2022, plummeting to a historic low of 93.73 against the dollar. Surging oil prices, driven by escalating West Asian conflicts, coupled with overseas investor outflows, significantly pressured the currency.

每周底线：美联储暂停，通胀持续。本周的数据发布和加拿大银行的声明描述了一个本可以成为现实的世界，国内背景显示出通胀缓解的迹象。伊朗战争颠覆了这一点。

The Weekly Bottom Line: The Fed Pauses, Inflation Persists.This week's data releases and Bank of Canada (BoC) statement describe a world that could have been, with a domestic backdrop that showed signs of easing inflation. The war in Iran has upended that.

美元预测：鹰派央行限制收益率支撑，DXY风险回落。DXY本周走弱，因为鹰派全球央行抵消了美国收益率上升的影响，尽管仍有完整的上升趋势，但这增加了下行风险。

US Dollar Forecast: DXY Risks Pullback as Hawkish Central Banks Cap Yield Support.DXY weakens for the week as hawkish global central banks offset rising US yields, raising downside risks despite a still-intact uptrend.