中国贸易超预期，2025年贸易顺差创下历史新高。中国在2025年结束时的贸易表现强于预期，因为12月的进出口都超过了预期，突显出即使国内势头仍然不平衡，经济仍继续依赖外部需求。

China trade beats forecasts as 2025 surplus hits massive record.China closed 2025 with a stronger-than-expected trade performance, as December exports and imports both beat forecasts, underscoring the economy's continued reliance on external demand even as domestic momentum remains uneven.

中国全年贸易数据，进出口均同比增长。全年数据来自中国。2025年人民币计价：出口同比增长6.1%，进口同比增长0.5%，双向贸易额为45.47万亿元，同比增长3.8%。

Full year trade data out from China, exports and imports both up y/y.Full year data out from China. 2025 yuan-denominated: Exports +6.1% y/y Imports +0.5% y/y Two-way trade value at 45.47 trln yuan, +3.8% y/y.

美元/日元飙升暴露了日本央行干预的政策悖论。随着美元/日元重新回到2024年引发行动的危险区域，对日元干预的猜测再次升温。但这次感觉不一样。

USD/JPY surge exposes Japan's policy paradox on BOJ intervention.Speculation over yen intervention is heating up again as USD/JPY creeps back toward the same danger zone that triggered action in 2024. But this time feels different.

日元预测：在财政政策担忧下，美元/日元关注160。尽管日本央行加息预期不断上升，但由于日本大选风险和财政刺激计划导致日本国债收益率上升并削弱日元，美元/日元汇率预计为160。

Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Eyes 160 Amid Fiscal Policy Concerns.USD/JPY eyes 160 as Japan election risks and fiscal stimulus plans send JGB yields higher and weaken the yen despite growing BoJ rate hike expectations.