波罗的海干散货 (BalticDry) 加自选

周五，离岸人民币兑美元汇率升至7.25左右，延续了前一交易日的涨幅，这得益于美元走软，因为人们越来越担心唐纳德·特朗普总统的全面关税可能会推动全球经济，特别是美国经济，走向衰退。周三，特朗普宣布对所有进口商品征收10%的基准关税，而其他主要经济体则面临更高的关税，中国面临54%的征税，欧盟面临20%的征税。作为报复，中国宣布将很快重启与欧盟的谈判，以改善中欧企业之间的合作，特别是在电动汽车领域。本周早些时候，韩国、中国和日本还同意寻求一项旨在促进地区贸易的自由贸易协定。

The offshore yuan strengthened to around 7.25 per dollar on Friday, extending gains from the previous session, supported by a weakening greenback amid growing concerns that President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs could push the global economy, particularly in the US, toward recession. On Wednesday, Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, while other major economies are subject to even higher tariffs, with China facing a 54% levy and the European Union 20%. In retaliation, China announced that it will soon restart negotiations with the EU to improve cooperation between Chinese and European companies, particularly in the electric vehicle sector. Earlier in the week, South Korea, China, and Japan also agreed to pursue a free trade pact aimed at boosting regional trade.

美元脆弱，交易员在美国就业报告公布前评估关税影响。周五，美元难以重新站稳脚跟，避险日元徘徊在六个月高点附近，交易员们正在评估唐纳德·特朗普总统激进而深远的新关税措施的影响。

Dollar fragile as traders take stock of tariff fallout ahead of US jobs report.The U.S. dollar struggled to regain its footing with the safe-haven yen hovering near a six-month peak on Friday, as traders took stock of the fallout from President Donald Trump's aggressive and far-reaching new tariff measures.

周五，美元指数在上一交易日下跌近2%后仍低于102，因为人们越来越担心唐纳德·特朗普总统的激进关税和主要贸易伙伴的潜在报复可能会将全球经济推入衰退。特朗普宣布从4月5日开始对所有进口商品征收10%的基准关税，对大约60个国家征收更高的关税，包括中国54%，欧盟20%，日本24%，印度27%和越南46%。市场的反应是通胀上升、经济增长放缓和美联储进一步降息。交易员现在预计美联储今年将降息四次25个基点，第一次降息预计将在6月。与此同时，特朗普后来表示对贸易谈判持开放态度，这与他的助手早些时候的言论相矛盾。投资者现在正在等待周五的美国就业报告，该报告可能会进一步影响对美联储下一步行动的预期。

The US dollar index remained below 102 on Friday after tumbling nearly 2% in the previous session, as fears mounted that President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs and potential retaliation from key trading partners could push the global economy into recession. Trump announced a baseline 10% tariff on all imports starting April 5, with steeper levies on around 60 countries, including China at 54%, the European Union at 20%, Japan at 24%, India at 27%, and Vietnam at 46%. Markets reacted by pricing in higher inflation, slower growth, and more Federal Reserve rate cuts. Traders are now anticipating four 25-basis-point rate reductions from the Fed this year, with the first expected in June. Meanwhile, Trump later signaled openness to trade negotiations, contradicting earlier remarks from his aides. Investors now await Friday’s US jobs report, which could further shape expectations for the Fed’s next moves.

美联储的库克：风险倾向于高通胀和增长放缓。美联储理事Lisa Cook在隔夜的一次演讲中强调，她的基线预测认为，美国经济今年将“适度放缓”，失业率略有上升。此外，由于关税和其他政策变化，通胀进展将“在短期内停滞”。

Fed's Cook: Risks tilt toward high inflation and slower growth.Fed Governor Lisa Cook highlighted in a speech overnight that her baseline forecast sees the US economy will “slow moderately” this year, with a slight uptick in unemployment. Also, inflation progress will “stall in the near term”, because of tariffs and other policy changes.