波罗的海干散货 (BalticDry) 加自选

一周前：特朗普就职典礼和日本央行利率决定结束。最近几天有四个重要的宏观发展值得注意。首先，美国最近公布的一系列经济数据比预期更为稳健，第四季度国内生产总值似乎增长了近3%。

Week Ahead: Book-Ended by Trump's Inauguration and the BOJ Rate Decision.There were four important macro developments to note in recent days. First, the recent string of US economic data was firmer than expected and GDP looks to have expanded close to 3% in Q4.

美元/日元预测：特朗普和日本央行将在收益率脱节的情况下引发波动。本分析说明探讨了美元/日元不断变化的驱动因素，包括其与国债收益率和其他影响的相关性的最新细分。以唐纳德·特朗普的就职典礼和日本央行的利率决定为焦点，它概述了关键情景及其影响。

USD/JPY Forecast: Trump and BoJ Set to Spark Volatility Amid Yield Disconnect.This analysis note explores the evolving drivers of USD/JPY, including the recent breakdown of its correlation with Treasury yields and other influences. With Donald Trump's inauguration and the BoJ's rate decision as focal points, it outlines key scenarios and their implications.

在纽约，道琼斯指数周五上涨335点，涨幅0.78%。涨幅最大的是英伟达（2.67%）、高盛（2.31%）和亚马逊（2.28%）。跌幅最大的是默克公司（-2.75%）、旅行者公司（-1.21%）和强生公司（-0.55%）。

In New York, the Dow Jones Index rose 335 points or 0.78 percent on Friday. Leading the gains are Nvidia (2.67%), Goldman Sachs (2.31%) and Amazon (2.28%). Top losers were Merck (-2.75%), Travelers Companies (-1.21%) and J&J (-0.55%).

2024年11月，外国对长期证券、短期美国证券和银行流量的净收购使TIC净流入1599亿美元。随着中国增加其美国债务组合，该指数低于9月份创下的历史新高。外国私人净流入为1566亿美元，而外国官方净流入为33亿美元。11月，外国居民增持了长期美国证券，净购买额达到1157亿美元。外国私人投资者净购买1240亿美元，而外国官方机构净销售额为83亿美元。美国居民还增加了长期外国证券的持有量，净购买367亿美元。在11月5日美国大选之前，由于对增长友好政策的预期和共和党胜利带来的潜在通货膨胀，国债收益率飙升。11月中旬收益率有所回落，但再次攀升，本周早些时候10年期收益率触及14个月高点。

Net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term US securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $159.9 billion in November 2024. It came below the record high set in September, with China boosting its portfolio of US debt. Net foreign private inflows amounted to $156.6 billion, while net foreign official inflows totaled $3.3 billion. Foreign residents raised their holdings of long-term US securities in November, with net purchases reaching $115.7 billion. Private foreign investors made net purchases of $124.0 billion, while foreign official institutions recorded net sales of $8.3 billion. US residents also increased their holdings of long-term foreign securities, making net purchases of $36.7 billion. Treasury yields surged before the Nov. 5 US elections, fueled by expectations of growth-friendly policies and potential inflation from Republican victories. Yields eased in mid-November but climbed again, with 10-year yields hitting a 14-month high earlier this week.