周四，澳元贬值至0.649美元以上，延续了前一交易日的跌幅，因为美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的新关税威胁导致风险情绪恶化。周三，他宣布计划在未来一到两周内向主要贸易伙伴发出正式信函，概述旨在迫使各国谈判贸易协议的单方面关税。澳大利亚储备银行进一步降息的预期上升，给澳元带来了更大的压力。市场预计，在7月8日的会议上，降息25个基点至3.60%的可能性为80%，预计到年底将进一步降至3.10%。然而，西太平洋银行首席经济学家Luci Ellis预计，澳大利亚储备银行将在7月份维持利率不变，随后在8月和11月降息25个基点，明年2月和5月还会再降息两次。如果通胀和劳动力市场状况减弱，提前降息是可能的，这可能会使现金利率降至2.85%。

The Australian dollar depreciated past $0.649 on Thursday, extending its decline from the previous session as risk sentiment soured amid fresh tariff threats from US President Donald Trump. On Wednesday, he announced plans to dispatch official letters to major trading partners within the next one to two weeks, outlining unilateral tariffs aimed at compelling countries to negotiate trade deals. Adding pressure on the Aussie dollar were rising expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Markets price in an 80% chance of a 25 bps cut to 3.60% at the July 8 meeting, with further reductions to 3.10% expected by year-end. However, Westpac Chief Economist Luci Ellis expects the RBA to hold rates in July, followed by quarter-point cuts in August and November, with two additional reductions in February and May next year. Earlier rate cuts are possible if inflation and labour market conditions weaken, potentially bringing the cash rate down to 2.85%.