欧元/美元、美元/日元和澳元/美元预测——美元试图反击。美元继续出现很多噪音，但在周四早盘，美元似乎正试图反击过去几周普遍存在的抛售压力。

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Trying to Fight Back.The US dollar continues to see a lot of noise, but in the early Thursday session, it looks as if the US dollar is trying to fight back against the selling pressure that has been so prevalent for the last several weeks.

周四，标准普尔/澳交所200指数微跌0.1%，收于8831.40点，投资者在国内和全球降息押注增加的推动下，在两个创纪录的交易日后锁定利润。投资者预计，8月12日澳大利亚储备银行降息25个基点的可能性超过92%，美联储9月降息的预期也在增加。与此同时，在美国总统特朗普最近宣布对药品征收高额关税，并在最新更新中对半导体进口征收100%的税后，市场变得谨慎。在数据方面，澳大利亚的贸易顺差在2025年6月跃升至53.7亿澳元，为3月以来的最高水平，这得益于出口增长6.0%，达到443.2亿澳元的16个月高点。在企业新闻中，金融和医疗保健股下跌，而ASX有限公司在表示与监管调查有关的成本上升后下跌8.6%。现在的焦点转移到下周的收益上，CBA、西太平洋银行和澳新银行等主要银行将公布财报。

The S&P/ASX 200 edged 0.1% lower to finish at 8,831.40 on Thursday, as investors locked in profits after two record-high sessions driven by rising bets on domestic and global rate cuts. Investors are pricing in over 92% odds of a quarter-point RBA rate cut on August 12, with expectations also building for a US Fed cut in September. Meanwhile, markets turned cautious after US President Trump recently announced steep tariffs on pharmaceuticals and, in the latest update, a 100% levy on semiconductor imports. On the data front, Australia’s trade surplus jumped to AUD 5.37 billion in June 2025—its highest since March—driven by a 6.0% rise in exports to a 16-month high of AUD 44.32 billion. In corporate news, financial and healthcare stocks declined, while ASX Ltd tumbled 8.6% after flagging elevated costs tied to a regulatory probe. Focus now shifts to next week’s earnings, with major banks like CBA, Westpac, and ANZ set to report.

周四，澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率稳定在4.25%，投资者消化了强于预期的贸易顺差。澳大利亚6月份的商品贸易顺差从5月份向下修正的16亿澳元大幅扩大至53.7亿澳元，远高于市场预期的25亿澳元，主要原因是出口反弹（6%对-3%），而进口下降（-3.1%对3.3%）。虽然贸易数据表明澳大利亚对外部门具有一定的弹性，但对市场对货币政策的预期影响不大。在一系列疲软的经济指标之后，市场仍完全消化了澳大利亚储备银行下周降息25个基点的预期。本周早些时候，澳新银行和就业平台Indeed的数据显示，7月份的招聘广告下降了1%，这加剧了劳动力市场降温的迹象。单独的数据还显示，6月份家庭支出略有增加，突显出消费需求疲软。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield held steady at 4.25% on Thursday, as investors digested a stronger-than-expected trade surplus. Australia’s trade surplus in goods widened sharply to A$5.37 billion in June, from a downwardly revised A$1.6 billion in May and well above market expectations of A$2.5 billion, driven mainly by a rebound in exports (6% vs -3%) while imports declined (-3.1% vs 3.3%). While the trade data points to some resilience in Australia’s external sector, it had little effect on market expectations for monetary policy. Markets remain fully priced for a 25bps rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia next week, following a string of weak economic indicators. Earlier this week, data from ANZ and employment platform Indeed showed that job advertisements declined by 1% in July — adding to signs of a cooling labor market. Separate figures also revealed a modest increase in household spending in June, underscoring weak consumer demand.

澳元周四升至0.650美元以上，标志着连续第三个交易日上涨，强劲的贸易数据提振了市场情绪。2025年6月，澳大利亚的贸易顺差扩大至53.7亿澳元，为3月以来的最大值，远高于5月的16亿澳元，远高于25亿澳元的预测。出口增长6.0%，达到443.2亿澳元的16个月高点，推动了反弹。与此同时，在美国总统特朗普誓言对半导体进口征收高额关税并将印度商品的关税提高一倍至50%后，投资者变得谨慎。他还警告称，由于中国与俄罗斯石油的关系，他可能会对中国征收类似的关税，这表明他打算惩罚在乌克兰战争中支持莫斯科的国家。在政策方面，澳元面临着澳大利亚储备银行下周和美联储9月份降息押注增加的压力，掉期定价为澳大利亚储备银行8月12日降息25个基点的可能性为92%。市场正在等待中国的贸易数据，中国是澳大利亚最大的贸易伙伴。

The Australian dollar rose to above $0.650 on Thursday, marking its third straight session of gains, as robust trade figures boosted sentiment. Australia’s trade surplus widened to AUD 5.37 billion in June 2025, the largest since March, up sharply from AUD 1.60 billion in May and well above forecasts of AUD 2.5 billion. The rebound was driven by a 6.0% rise in exports to a 16-month high of AUD 44.32 billion. Meanwhile, investors turned cautious after US President Trump vowed steep tariffs on semiconductor imports and doubled duties on Indian goods to 50%. He also warned he could impose similar tariffs on China over its ties to Russian oil, signaling his intent to penalize nations supporting Moscow amid the Ukraine war. On the policy front, the Aussie faced pressure from rising bets of rate cuts by the RBA next week and the US Fed in September, with swaps pricing 92% odds of a quarter-point RBA cut on August 12. Markets now await China’s trade data—Australia’s top trading partner.