LME指标 (LMEIndex) 加自选

美国天然气价格飙升7%，至4.3/MMBtu，延续了昨天6%的涨幅，达到一年来的最高水平，因为对寒冷天气的预测提升了供暖需求的前景，并加快了对储存季节开始的预期。美国能源信息署的数据显示，截至11月15日的一周，天然气储量下降了30亿立方英尺，而不是预期的50亿立方英尺的产量，这是本季度的首次快速下降，因为前一周相对较低的价格促使生产商减产。反过来，最新的预测表明，西海岸和除墨西哥湾沿岸以外的大部分地区的气温都比平时低。反过来，在今年年初之前，欧洲的供应担忧推动液化天然气原料气流量升至10个月来的最高点，限制了国内供应。

US natural gas prices soared by 7% to 4.3/MMBtu, extending yesterday’s 6% surge to the highest in one year, as forecasts of colder weather lifted the outlook on heating demand and expedited expectations on the start of storage withdrawing season. Data from the EIA showed that gas storage fell by 3 billion cubic feet on the week ending November 15th instead of expectations of a 5 billion cubic feet build, an expedited first drop of the season, as relatively low prices in the prior week drove producers to cut output. In turn, the most recent forecasts pointed to colder-than-usual temperatures on the West Coast and most of the nation besides the Gulf Coast. In turn, supply concerns in Europe ahead of the turn of the year drove LNG feed gas flows to rise to a 10-month high, limiting domestic supply.

可可期货稳定在每吨8400美元左右，交易员仍关注供应前景。经销商表示，西非的有利天气使农民能够回到田里，继续收割主要作物。最新数据显示，10月1日至11月17日，科特迪瓦农民向港口运送了548494公吨可可，比去年同期的415523公吨增加了32%。与此同时，加纳可可委员会的数据显示，截至11月7日，加纳的分级和密封可可到货量达到182937公吨，比上个季度同期的122699公吨增加了49%。过去几周，价格大幅飙升，11月14日达到8760美元的两个月高点，主要原因包括主要种植国科特迪瓦暴雨后作物预测下降、对豆类质量的担忧以及仓库库存极低。

Cocoa futures stabilized around $8,400 per tonne, as traders remained focused on the supply outlook. Dealers said that favorable weather in West Africa has allowed farmers to return to fields and proceed with the ongoing harvest of the main crop. The latest data showed that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 548,494 MT of cocoa to ports from October 1 to November 17, up 32% from 415,523 MT shipped the same time last year. In the meantime, figures from the Ghana Cocoa Board indicated that Ghana’s graded and sealed cocoa arrivals reached 182,937 metric tons by November 7, a 49% increase from 122,699 metric tons in the same period last season. Prices surged sharply in the past couple of weeks, hitting over two-month highs of $8,760 on November 14, driven by factors including reduced crop forecasts due to post-heavy rains in top grower Ivory Coast, concerns over bean quality, and critically low warehouse stocks.

2024年11月，埃及央行连续第八个月将利率维持在27.25%的历史新高，反映了全球和国内经济状况。10月份，年度整体通胀率稳定在26.5%，核心通胀率降至24.4%，食品通胀率降至27.3%的两年低点。这些趋势，加上通胀预期的改善和月度通胀动态的正常化，表明通胀将继续走上抑制通胀的道路，尽管会受到有管理的价格调整的影响。2024年第三季度实际GDP增长加速，而第二季度为2.4%，预计第四季度将进一步增长，尽管产出仍低于潜在水平。预计到2024年，通货膨胀率将徘徊在目前的水平附近，风险仍向上倾斜，但随着货币紧缩和有利的基数效应的形成，预计从2025年第一季度开始，通货膨胀将大幅缓解。

The Central Bank of Egypt kept its interest rate unchanged at a record high of 27.25% in November 2024, for the eighth consecutive month, reflecting global and domestic economic conditions. Annual headline inflation stabilized at 26.5% in October, while core inflation eased to 24.4%, and food inflation dropped to a two-year low of 27.3%. These trends, along with improved inflation expectations and normalized monthly inflation dynamics, point to a continued disinflationary path, though subject to administered price adjustments. Real GDP growth accelerated in Q3 2024 compared to 2.4% in Q2, with further gains anticipated in Q4, although output remains below potential. Inflation is expected to hover near current levels through 2024, with risks still skewed to the upside, but is forecast to ease significantly from Q1 2025 as monetary tightening and favorable base effects take hold.

在外汇银行间市场，英镑汇率跌至1.26美元以下。

The British Pound exchange rate decreased below 1.26 US Dollars in the foreign exchange interbank market.